Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a gorgeous, but cold day across Kentucky as we wait on the active pattern to kick in later tonight and Sunday. This pattern gets started with a system bringing a wintry mix to start and a lot of rain to end. The system coming in behind that has the chance to bring some full-blown winter weather in here later Wednesday and Thursday.
Let’s start this out with a look back at a frigid morning. Modified arctic air knocked our lows very close to single digits across parts of the state. Here are the lows from the Kentucky Mesonet…
Any kind of snow cover would have resulted in temps around or below zero.
We continue to watch for the increasing threat for a wintry mix late tonight and early Sunday across the northern half of the state. With a frozen ground and temps going below 32 overnight, a little bit of freezing rain or mix can cause some travel issues.
The NAM Fam continues to see a touch of freezing rain…
So does the GFS…
The Canadian has a little more of a mixed bag, including some flake action…
If you have travel plans early Sunday, keep all this in mind.
Rounds of heavy rain and a few thunderstorms will then kick in by Sunday night through Monday night. This is when we turn our attention to the possibility of local high water issues developing. A general 1″-3″ of rain show up for many…
That’s the map I made yesterday and we are seeing most of the models matching up well now…
GFS
Canadian
NAM
The EURO continues to be the lightest of the bunch…
Much of this falls within a 12 hour window on Monday and that increases the potential for a few issues.
The next system coming in behind this continues to look much more like a snow maker from late Wednesday into early Thursday. The models continue to be pretty gung ho on a snowfall…
GFS
CANADIAN
The EURO is a much lighter event…
I will hook you up with another update this evening. Until then, have a good one and take care.
That first system may degrade the second becoming a full blown winter storm. Hope I’m wrong.
Since we haven’t had any Major Rains Or Snows in Western and Central Kentucky, Why would this Storm System be any Different ?
The law of averages.
I don’t know if it going to a thumper but at this point I would be happy with a 3-5 inch snowfall.
I remain pessimistic about snow chances in South Central Kentucky. Despite a decent flow of moisture, cold air doesn’t get a to establish itself, courtesy of a La Niña that just won’t quit. La Niña will very likely maintain its influence straight into Spring, and give the start of severe weather season a kick in the pants.
Me too which way, been a over two years of snow drought here in western, ky
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021012318/gfs_asnow_neus_21.png
GFS with a nice snowfall for EKY and some of central KY as well.
Hopefully, our Spring will be late and without the Severe Weather Season.
I don’t think one can predict what Phase of ENSO we will be in, but La Nina has been dominating the Weather for at least 4 years.
Winter Weather continues in Europe and Asia with a slight moderation in Temperatures in Siberia
What’s interesting is the Huge Elongated trough over Siberia. I think this may be the Big Sister of the Polar Vortex.
Only about a month ago the Polar Vortex was Forecast to move into the North Central US and give the Eastern Half of the country a Cold and Snowy end of January and the in beginning of February.
And Now Not.
t
Ummmm no….hopefully Spring will be EARLY and without the usual cold snap after the fact that kills everything that is blooming