Good Sunday to one and all. Our active pattern is kicking off with a tough of frozen precipitation early today as we get set to turn our attention toward rounds of heavy rain. This sets up shop later tonight into Monday and may cause local high water issues to develop. Another system then works in quickly behind this one, but has much more of a snow look to it.
Let’s begin things with a look at what’s happening to start our day. A period of freezing rain or a wintry mix is likely across the northern half of the state and can very well lead to slick travel conditions developing. It doesn’t take much ice to cause big issues, so stay alert if you’re driving this morning. Here are your radars to track whatever is falling…
A little light rain takes over this afternoon with a big north-south temp gradient setting up.
Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms then develop late tonight through Monday night. Odds continue to favor widespread 1″-3″ rains that can cause a few issues. I’ve made no changes to the rainfall map I first put out a few days ago…
The models continue to be aggressive with the rain totals…
GFS
CANADIAN
NAM
EURO
Once this blows through, we have no time to waste before the next storm rolls in here. This one has a different look in that it is farther to the south and southeast, allowing for colder air and snow to develop in our region.
The GFS continues to have the same signal it’s had for the past several days…
So has the Canadian…
EURO
The GFS Ensembles are very excited about the potential. Here’s the average snow numbers from now through Thursday…
As you can see, we have a lot to track through the week ahead. This is a loaded pattern with plenty of precipitation targeting our region and it’s likely to last through the rest of winter and into early spring.
I will see you guys for updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Once again, Warren County is going to get the short end of the stick, in terms of meaningful snowfall. La Niǹa is just too strong of an influence, and I am convinced that we will continue to experience its effects well into Spring.
When we had those Snowstorms back in 2016 we were in an El Nino. Can’t remember what strength it was ?
La Nina means a strong Southeast Ridge dominating and deflecting Snowstorms well to our North.
This morning’s radar is showing this now with an overrunning event. Freezing rain is just to my Northwest. Typical La Nina Phase of ENSO.
Hopefully, The precipitation will end soon with the warm front moving through cutting off the moisture supply, followed by another weak cold front containing some Arctic Air mix with milder and drier air from the Pacific region.
Then the whole process repeats in a couple of days.
Real deal Winter like we had back in 1976-78 continues in Europe and Asia.
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Chicago and suburbs from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, as this looks to be our biggest snowstorm here in a couple of years. Snowfall this season has ranged from a meager 8 to 10 inches throughout the Chicago area, but there’s a good chance we’ll get that much alone from this storm. A total of 6 to 9 inches of snow is currently predicted for the area, along with strong NE winds off Lake Michigan between 15-25 MPH. Can’t wait to shovel all that snow, it’s a great workout!
One thing that’s unusual is that there are no major Arctic outbreaks in the forecast like there usually is after a major snowstorm. In fact, by next weekend, temps are predicted to be near 40 degrees with rain… ugh!
I wish we could have a Winter weather forecast like that with 9+ inches. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a real deal Snowstorm. Last one was in 2004 at Christmas when 22 inches of Snow fell in Evansville, Indiana.
One positive thing about the climate here where I live now in Central Kentucky is that very severe Winter weather is rare. Last one was the 2009 Ice Storm, which was the worse and most costly in Kentucky’s weather history. Fifteen days without heat and barely any food with temperatures near zero. Since then the weather has been very uneventful, which is good for my health and pocket book.
Enjoy the Snowstorm. I would think that with the Northeast wind off of Lake Michigan the Snow accumulation would be enhance to double the amount of Snow.
It’s not an ideal lake snow setup. Areas very close to Lake Michigan could see some enhancement, but it won’t go far inland at all.
The system snow will be – by far – the story here.
I hope you get a good Chicago snowfall! It stinks that it’s back to warm rain after that, but here’s hoping you get at least the 6-9” currently predicted. Best wishes to you from rainy east KY.
I appreciate it… thanks!
GFS-16 says get the generator ready.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021012406&fh=108&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=
A narrow band of heavy snow.
It’s a nasty morning here in south-central Indiana with a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain falling. I was hoping it would start out as snow for me like most of the models showed but it looks like they didn’t pick up the warm layer aloft very well.
As for the Wednesday/Thursday system I know if it has any capability of dropping over 5 inches of snow, it won’t hit me because it hasn’t happened in almost six years so why would it happen now?
2018 was our last depth shoemaker here far western, ky. Hopefully the Wednesdays snow comes to a fruitation.
When we had that Ice Storm in 2009 here in Central Kentucky Bloomington, Indiana received 10 inches of Snow. I just remembered as I have friends that live there and they told me that on a phone call.
GFS-16 holding.If Just get the Euro on board.Big if though.
Canadian gives Pikeville almost 15 inches.LOL..Believe when all is said and done this goes South or weak sauce.
12 z GFS, CMC now put SE KY in play, meanwhile UKMET backs off SE totals
Euro weak sauce.
On a personal note, I am heading to sooth central West Virginia on a camping trip next weekend. The latest models are looking good for significant snow on the ground! I am just hoping for no rain. We will be around 4,000 ft. I wonder how that will impact the local weather? — It’s a remote area and there really isn’t a CB to give local forecasts. I will know more as we get closer to the weekend…….