Good afternoon, everyone. A wintry mess started the day across many areas of the region, now we focus our attention on the heavy rain rolling in later tonight through Monday night. This is a system that can dump a lot of rain around here and cause high water issues. This will be followed up by an increasing snow threat later Wednesday and Thursday.

This morning’s mess was a mix of freezing rain, sleet and some snow across the northern half of the state. I was struck by this tweet from the NWS in Wilmington, Ohio who is in charge of northern Kentucky…

If only we had a taxpayer funded federal agency to alert the public via Advisories, Watches or Warnings. 🤷‍♂️

Now comes the heavy rain and thunderstorm action tonight through Monday night. I have no changes on my rain forecast…

The model forecasts continue to have my back…

GFS

CANADIAN

SHORT RANGE CANADIAN

NAM

EURO

Some of this action comes from thunderstorms. Check out the lightning forecast from the EURO…

Some of these storms may pack high winds, too. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of the state in a low-end severe weather risk…

The next system takes low pressure farther south and southeast allowing colder air across Kentucky. This likely creates a fairly large swath of accumulating snow Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning…

CANADIAN

GFS

EURO

There is an increasing potential for this system to put snow on the ground and it may be enough for our first Winter Storm Threat since the Christmas storm, although the EURO isn’t impressed.

I will have another update later today. Until then, here are your radars to follow the switch to rain..

Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.