A Strong Cold Front Sweeps Across The State Today

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s another active weather day as a strong cold front works into the bluegrass state. This will bring some big gusts of wind with it and also has some rain and snow for the area. Behind all this comes a pattern that’s loaded with winter weather potential, but the timing of individual systems continues to be the great unknown. Lucky me. 😒

Let’s start with the system moving in today. A few thoughts:

The leading edge of the rain may start as a touch of sleet or snow before showers take over.
Gusty winds will be noted ahead of the front and may top 40mph at times this afternoon and evening.
Temps crash behind the front with readings dropping into the low 20s for some Friday morning. Gusty winds could pop a single digit wind chill.
That drop in temps may also result in a bit of an ice up, so keep that in mind if you’re traveling.
The main rain shield may end as a stripe of light snow with some follow up flurries and snow showers into Friday morning.

The setup beyond this continues to change with the details, but not the overall theme. This is a harsh winter pattern continuing to take control of much of the country, but the models can’t handle everything going on. Heck, humans can’t either. Bitterly cold air continues to slowly press south into the country this weekend as several systems work along the southern edge of this into early next week.

The models are trying to figure out which of these systems to key on and, quite frankly, so am I.

The Canadian Model brings a light snow maker early Saturday then again Sunday, but tries to blow up the one right behind that early in the week…

The GFS is trying to do the same thing, but focuses too much on the northern stream energy…

The GFS goes on to see the bigger storm threat later in the week as it tries to go for a full blown phased storm in the eastern part of the country…

The EURO has this storm system, but holds it back in the deep south…

The GFS Ensembles show the extent of this frigid pattern across the country. These are the average temp departures from 21 members…

This winter weather lover is getting antsy for spring, so go big or go home Old Man Winter. 😜

I will have your normal updates later today, so check back. Until then, here are your radars to follow the latest storm system into town…

Make it a good one and take care.

9 Comments

Illinois Mike on February 4, 2021 at 5:41 am

Chicago just experienced its 10th snowiest January ever with 21.9 inches (which fell at O’Hare Airport, the city’s official reporting station), thanks to the snowy final week of the month.

For the season, O’Hare has now received 25.4 inches of snow, which is 3.9 inches above normal. At the NWS forecast office 35 miles SW of Chicago, 26.3 inches has fallen so far for the season.

More snow is on the way, as Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for all of the Chicago Metro Area today through Friday morning, with 2 to 5 inches of snow expected, along with considerable blowing and drifting after dark. Winter Storm Warnings are out for NW and North Central IL.

Even more snow is on the way here for next week, possibly significant snow. It will certainly stick around for quite a while with the cold pattern locking in too.

Schroeder on February 4, 2021 at 6:54 am
Thanks Mike for the update. Looks like the phasing is really coming together up your way. I notice this morning on the Ventusky Weather Site that the Arctic Air has it’s frigid “foot in the door” just to the Northwest of the Great Lakes. How far South the edge gets is still in question. My guess it will get South of Indianapolis and turn East.
I also checked the Snow Cover up your way and in areas of Northwest Illinois have a heavy Snow pack and have maintained that for quite a while. Reminds me of the January 1977 Winter in Indiana.
On the Snowstorm forecast map it showed this morning that a lot more Snow is on the way for Chicago.
Enjoy the Snow and stay safe.
- Schroeder on February 4, 2021 at 7:38 am
  THANKS CHRIS, forecasting any weather here in the Ohio Valley especially here lately is next to impossible.
  I just hope we maintain what we’ve been having, moderate cold with more of those One to Three inch Snows to break the monotony.
  Real Winter Lovers can study what is going on North and Northeast of us because they are having the “Big Time” Winter Snows we wish we would have here in Kentucky.
  I still say it’s the “Old Southeast Ridge” that protects us from the real Winter Weather here in Kentucky.
  On the positive side I haven’t been Snowbound since 2016 and I haven’t been cold in my house and most importantly low heating bills so far.

Troy on February 4, 2021 at 9:40 am

Bottom line…blustery cold rain (not snowfall) will perfectly define the rest of this month and most of March. Fingers crossed for early Spring

Schroeder on February 4, 2021 at 11:16 am
If we could only hold back the growing season until May first.

Which Way Is the Wind Blowing on February 4, 2021 at 11:51 am

The models cannot get a handle on how to forecast the energy coming out of Canada.
An accurate forecast might have to be day to day over the next several weeks.

BengalFan1 on February 4, 2021 at 12:23 pm

All I know is that Several times this winter , the polar express was forecasted a week out and never rolled in , not even close. It seems to be doing that again,, here it comes…well actually no it’s not..

It has been cold in Cky( pretty consistent in 30’s)..
Few 1-3 in snows.. not to bad, but NO real good snows (4inplus)…

I will always be a SNOW fan, I absolutely love it when it does! I will for some reason be a Bengals fan.., they have potential, but just don’t quite get there… looks kinda like our snow events .

BubbaG on February 4, 2021 at 2:05 pm
Yep, it keep shifting a week or two out. We are about out of out.

Schroeder on February 4, 2021 at 12:46 pm

If any of you on here is past 65 years old, you would remember the Blizzard in January 1978 where the wind chill was -40 degrees F. and the actual temperature did not get above zero for days and this was just north of Evansville, Indiana.

If this current Arctic Air makes it this far South it won’t be that bad compared to the above.

I might add the wind was so strong (60 mph gust) and blinding Snow it was difficult to measure how much snow actually fell. I would have to guess around 15 inches as we had a 20 foot Snowdrift in our driveway.

I lived near highway 41 where the Snowdrifts were over 25+ feet deep in many places and the National Guard was activated to clear the roads and to help people that were stranded in their cars and trucks and to deliver food and medication. The National Guard is the Greatest.

This Blizzard of 1978 was not predicted until it was too late for some. Very Sad.

Illinois Mike on February 4, 2021 at 5:41 am
Chicago just experienced its 10th snowiest January ever with 21.9 inches (which fell at O’Hare Airport, the city’s official reporting station), thanks to the snowy final week of the month.
For the season, O’Hare has now received 25.4 inches of snow, which is 3.9 inches above normal. At the NWS forecast office 35 miles SW of Chicago, 26.3 inches has fallen so far for the season.
More snow is on the way, as Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for all of the Chicago Metro Area today through Friday morning, with 2 to 5 inches of snow expected, along with considerable blowing and drifting after dark. Winter Storm Warnings are out for NW and North Central IL.
Even more snow is on the way here for next week, possibly significant snow. It will certainly stick around for quite a while with the cold pattern locking in too.
- Schroeder on February 4, 2021 at 6:54 am
  Thanks Mike for the update. Looks like the phasing is really coming together up your way. I notice this morning on the Ventusky Weather Site that the Arctic Air has it’s frigid “foot in the door” just to the Northwest of the Great Lakes. How far South the edge gets is still in question. My guess it will get South of Indianapolis and turn East.
  I also checked the Snow Cover up your way and in areas of Northwest Illinois have a heavy Snow pack and have maintained that for quite a while. Reminds me of the January 1977 Winter in Indiana.
  On the Snowstorm forecast map it showed this morning that a lot more Snow is on the way for Chicago.
  Enjoy the Snow and stay safe.
  - Schroeder on February 4, 2021 at 7:38 am
    THANKS CHRIS, forecasting any weather here in the Ohio Valley especially here lately is next to impossible.
    I just hope we maintain what we’ve been having, moderate cold with more of those One to Three inch Snows to break the monotony.
    Real Winter Lovers can study what is going on North and Northeast of us because they are having the “Big Time” Winter Snows we wish we would have here in Kentucky.
    I still say it’s the “Old Southeast Ridge” that protects us from the real Winter Weather here in Kentucky.
    On the positive side I haven’t been Snowbound since 2016 and I haven’t been cold in my house and most importantly low heating bills so far.
Troy on February 4, 2021 at 9:40 am
Bottom line…blustery cold rain (not snowfall) will perfectly define the rest of this month and most of March. Fingers crossed for early Spring
- Schroeder on February 4, 2021 at 11:16 am
  If we could only hold back the growing season until May first.
Which Way Is the Wind Blowing on February 4, 2021 at 11:51 am
The models cannot get a handle on how to forecast the energy coming out of Canada.
An accurate forecast might have to be day to day over the next several weeks.
BengalFan1 on February 4, 2021 at 12:23 pm
All I know is that Several times this winter , the polar express was forecasted a week out and never rolled in , not even close. It seems to be doing that again,, here it comes…well actually no it’s not..
It has been cold in Cky( pretty consistent in 30’s)..
Few 1-3 in snows.. not to bad, but NO real good snows (4inplus)…
I will always be a SNOW fan, I absolutely love it when it does! I will for some reason be a Bengals fan.., they have potential, but just don’t quite get there… looks kinda like our snow events .
- BubbaG on February 4, 2021 at 2:05 pm
  Yep, it keep shifting a week or two out. We are about out of out.
Schroeder on February 4, 2021 at 12:46 pm
If any of you on here is past 65 years old, you would remember the Blizzard in January 1978 where the wind chill was -40 degrees F. and the actual temperature did not get above zero for days and this was just north of Evansville, Indiana.
If this current Arctic Air makes it this far South it won’t be that bad compared to the above.
I might add the wind was so strong (60 mph gust) and blinding Snow it was difficult to measure how much snow actually fell. I would have to guess around 15 inches as we had a 20 foot Snowdrift in our driveway.
I lived near highway 41 where the Snowdrifts were over 25+ feet deep in many places and the National Guard was activated to clear the roads and to help people that were stranded in their cars and trucks and to deliver food and medication. The National Guard is the Greatest.
This Blizzard of 1978 was not predicted until it was too late for some. Very Sad.

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