Good Friday, folks. We’ve made it to the end of the week with the first weekend of February just about ready to begin. Of course, it’s Super Bowl Weekend and we have a couple of light snow makers targeting different parts of the state. This continues to to be part of this active winter pattern that grows much more wintry into next week.
If you’re traveling out there early today, be on the lookout for a touch of black ice as temps are deep into the 20s. Wind chills are around 10 degrees. The afternoon looks better with some sun and highs in the 30s.
A fast-moving streak of light snow is going to zip across the northern half of the state tonight. This looks very light and may only have a 40-50mile wide swath as it moves through. Here’s the Hi Res NAM future radar…
Some light accumulations will be possible within that corridor.
Once that moves out, the rest of the daylight hours look good. Clouds will then quickly roll back in by evening as a couple of systems try their absolute best to come together, but their efforts may not be enough. One system moves across the Tennessee Valley then turns the corner up the east coast while another system is just to our northwest. This can bring a swath of light snow for much of the state, with the best chance for some accumulations across the south and southeast.
Here’s how the GFS sees it…
The NAM for the same time…
And the EURO…
The next system that moves in behind this is also on the increase, but the models differ in track and timing. The EURO brings this in Monday night and Tuesday…
The GFS is slower and colder with the bulk of the system coming in Tuesday and Wednesday…
The GFS then goes on to sink the bitter cold farther south and allowing for a much bigger storm system to develop in the south and roll up the coast…
The EURO is even colder and slower with the storm coming out of the south…
Obviously, we continue to get a different solution with each system on each model with each run. Did you catch all that? One thing is for sure, the country is going into a brutally cold period that’s going to cause a lot of hardship. Near or below zero lows have a good chance of making it into our region at some point over the next week and change.
I will have your updates later today. Have a great Friday and take care.
I wish the extreme cold would just get here so we could be done with it sooner.
If the models are correct it looks like we’re going to receive more ice than snow.
More snow added on to the already hefty snowpack in the Chicago area… O’Hare Airport received 2.3 inches of snow Thursday, afternoon and night while the NWS forecast office 35 miles SW of Chicago received 4.4 inches. I’ll have to check how much snow accumulated on my driveway before I shovel later on this morning. It’ll be less than the four inches that fell at the NWS forecast office due to compacting and the strong winds that blew the snow around Thursday night.
Temps have plummeted, as it is just 12 degrees here at 3:15 AM local time, with the wind chill slightly below zero. The strong west winds from earlier have rapidly subsided, though.
Local forecasts are calling for three different snow systems for the Chicago area between Saturday and Tuesday, with below zero temps likely Saturday and Sunday mornings. Winter is finally here, and it sure looks like it’s going to stick around for a while.
Hoping you guys in Kentucky and surrounding areas get a decent snow out of all this sometime in the next week.
Thanks Mike, The exciting Winter weather is definitely in the North and Northeast. Here in Central Kentucky it’s been the “same ole same ole.”
No major systems expected the next several days.
Another win for the Southeast Ridge.
Wouldn’t a Ridge in the southeast keep storms from digging to the south? Seems the opposite is happening and the cold air is going to win out pushing the snow further to our south. La Niña and a zonal pattern is what is killing our snows, along with the fact that we have to have that perfect storm to get a big snow here in Kentucky. Please let me know where to find the SE ridge you talk about.
I found this article on the Southeast Ridge : http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/01/wheres_all_the_snow.html
Correct, the SE Ridge is not so much in play this season as it has been in years past
We are currently in a Moderate La Nina and has to date kept the Southeast Ridge Strong and separating the Polar Jet and the Subtropical Jet.
No Phasing, No Major Snowstorms. Period.
Schroeder just because we have been in La Niña doesn’t mean we have a SE Ridge. Not all La Niñas are the same and the SE Ridge has been almost non-existent this winter, it’s been the Pacific that’s not been cooperating. The -AO and -NAO has kept the SE Ridge at Bay.
LOL, all the outlooks for big snow chances seem to have switched to big ice for KY, or lighter snows for smaller parts of the state. The colder air still seems to be a few weeks out. The good news is the later that cold shifts out in the models, the less days it can sustain the cold. Not getting a big snow vibe with the outlooks.
BubbaG, Please take all ICE STORMS seriously. To me this is the second LIFE THREATENING event here in Kentucky.
The first is BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES for week without electrical power.
Have a great day !
May I ask, when are we talking ice? I didn’t see that anywhere in the forecast. I missed something.. lol
GFS for next Tues/Wed. Looks like a mess, to me. But each model is waffling so much from run to run/hour to hour, it’s going to be a hard one for anyone to forecast. Even our local mets are now actually admitting that. Wonders never cease. 🙂
Forecasting weather is easier to our North and Northeast.
Nope!! Snow killing words are light, potential, timing, etc….
Usually as a Bengals fan I end up not watching intently after about the first 6 games of the season….(I know what will happen)wish I could do that with the weather ,,, I still hold out for snow, but I get let down !
Thanks Chris!!!
Was hoping to wake up to a fully phased weekend system, could still happen, but will take what we get. Still like our chances is a big ticket storm for much of Kentucky in the coming days. I just hope the trough doesn’t dig so far south that is gives states south of us a good snow and we are lest cold and dry, although it sure beats cold and rainy or Ice as BubbaG speaks of.
Happy Weather Persons day to Chris Bailey!!! Best in the biz…
I second that !!!
This is the only site that keeps you updated on a daily basis, thanks for the updates!
It started out looking like we had a decent shot at snow but now just looking like cold. I stick to what Ive been saying. Cent and east Ky continue to have better chances for snow. WKY snow drought continues on….RIP SNOW. Bring on spring.
12z runs with big moves west
For the following weekend storm?
Happy weather dude day Chris!!! You are the best!
The Frigid Arctic Air is draining from Siberia into North American’s side of the Arctic. Still not much movement South of North Dakota.
No forecast out that would indicate a farther South projection as of yet.
The Bermuda High ( Southeast Ridge) will weaken and get stronger throughout the Winter despite what the four Teleconections are.
Currently the EPO is positive and the PNA is a weak negative and the AO negative and the NAO a weak negative.
Not right for phasing to make a complete Snowstorm for our part of the country.
So we will have to be content with one to two inch Snows or Rain showers, but more Snows to our East in the mountainous areas.
Pure Arctic air has taken over here in the Chicago area, as it’s 16 degrees in the SW suburbs with a wind chill a few degrees below zero thanks to a west wind gusting between 20-25 MPH. It’s a bright sunny day with beautiful blue skies along with the heavy snow cover. I measured around 7 1/2 inches of snow on my front lawn from all the snows we’ve had in the last ten days. Shoveling today wasn’t bad at all, as the snow compacted down to around an inch on the pavement.
Another inch or so of snow is on the way here for later Saturday into Saturday night, along with actual air temps below zero for Saturday and Sunday morning.