Good Saturday, folks. It’s the first weekend of February and things are starting out with a touch of some flake action to begin the day, but the focus is on a bigger system coming tonight and early Sunday. This looks to bring accumulating snow to southern and southeastern Kentucky, with the potential for several inches in the far southeast.

We continue to focus on the southeast and the Winter Storm Threat. Some areas down here may see upwards of 4″ of snow and that’s why there’s the limited WST. I will get to that in a moment, but first let’s talk about our early day flakes.

This is a small stripe of light snow impacting parts of northern Kentucky. Some local accumulations will be possible, but this isn’t widespread. Here’s your regional radar to track a quick end to this early day stuff…

Now, let’s focus on the system moving in this evening through Sunday morning:

  • This is a fast-moving system that won’t fully phase until it’s well to our east.
  • With temps spiking ahead of this, the initial surge of precipitation will likely start as rain and a mix.
  • Light snow quickly takes over across much of the region, but the bulk of the action is across the south and southeast.
  • There’s a sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the accumulating snow shield and that makes forecast lines a bit tricky.

Here’s the fresh call for snowfall…

I’m torn on western Kentucky and whether or not I will regret knocking that down a bit. Outside of far southeastern Kentucky, my confidence is a little iffy. I will have a Final Call For Snowfall later today.

The latest from the models…

NAM

GFS

EURO

That’s still quite the model spread.

Arctic air comes in behind all this and really drops the numbers across the north and west. Look how close those Sunday morning lows are to the zero line…

That arctic boundary effectively becomes stationary across the Ohio Valley into much of the week ahead. This allows for several systems to roll along this and may very well have a big storm along it before the week is over. This all sets the stage for rounds of winter weather targeting the region. My concern for a little ice is growing with one or more of these systems.

Here’s how the GFS sees everything…

I continue to favor the GFS over the EURO because of the erratic nature of the model of late and all of this plays into the bias of the model in holding too much energy back in the southwest. Folks really underestimate how bad the model is with that.

The GFS continues to bring the bitter cold all the way in here by the end of the week and weekend…

I will have your normal updates later today. Y’all have a good one and take care.