Good afternoon, everyone. Winter Storm ALERT for the entire state and surrounding areas from Sunday night through Tuesday. A major winter storm is set to slam the region with significant amounts of snow, sleet and freezing rain. This storm is likely to, effectively, shut down parts of the region.
The issue continues to be figuring out precipitation types and totals for any one location across the state. This will continue to be a work in progress as we still have a decent spread among the models.
One thing to watch for will be today’s temps. The models are all busting too warm with the numbers and this shows how the arctic air is flexing some muscle to our west and northwest. This likely means we find the coldest models and give them more credence than the others. For instance, the NAM is busting by more than 5 degrees too warm as of this midday writing.
So here we go with the First Call for Ice/Snowfall that is likely too conservative…
Again, that’s the first call and not the last call. I will likely make many adjustments to totals and locations between now and Sunday evening. The most likely trend will be to bump snow totals up if I continue to see the cold air winning the battle.
The forecast models continue to try to hone in on exact amounts and locations. The most consistent is the GFS…
GFS SNOW
GFS SLEET
GFS FREEZING RAIN
The new version of the GFS is even heftier with totals.
NEW GFS SNOWFALL
NEW GFS FREEZING RAIN
That version of the GFS is now matching the new run from the EURO…
EURO SNOW
EURO SLEET
EURO FREEZING RAIN
The NAM appears to be overdoing the warm air advection, which is something the model has a history of doing at times. That likely overshoots the temps which in turn pushes everything a bit west of reality…
NAM SNOWFALL
NAM SLEET
NAM FREEZING RAIN
CANADIAN SNOWFALL
CANADIAN SLEET
CANADIAN FREEZING RAIN
SHORT RANGE CANADIAN SNOW
SHORT RANGE CANADIAN SLEET
SHORT RANGE CANADIAN FREEZING RAIN
I will have updates later today, but those may be a little slow because I will be on the road for a bit doing daddy duty. I will still be burning up Twitter, though. 😎
BTW, for those having trouble or getting declined when trying to sign up to leave comments… send me a message with the information you submitted and I will go in and manually approve you guys. The site is trying to weed out the bots and sometimes hits real people instead.
Have a good one and take care.
BE CAREFUL DADDY BAILEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
We wound up with 2 1/4 inches of light, fluffy, easy-to shovel snow here in the SW suburbs of Chicago from the system last night and this morning., with one more area of snow coming through. We now have a snowpack of 10 inches!
It’s currently 7 degrees out with a wind chill of 8 below. With clearing skies for later tonight, temps are going to plummet to the minus teens below zero. Wind Chill Advisories and Warnings are out for the area through noon Sunday.
Looks like a lot of you guys in Kentucky are going to have a snowpack at least as deep as the snowpack I have by the time your storm is over!
I’m really liking the look of the NAM which shifted the bulk of freezing rain north…almost completely off my area . No offence to you guys in central KY but if someone has to get it, I just assume its not me
Wow! Super excited to see we might get that much snow.
I hope my home gets in on the 10 plus! Love snow no ice!!!
Thanks Chris stay safe I wish we were getting snow instead of ice and freezing rain but for some reason as far as snow concerned it’s hardly possible here if it happens occasionally but everything has to be just right but have a good time in the snow post your pictures be safe everyone I hope we all keep power. Thanks Chris for all you do we are going to be one busy weather dude.
Why doesn’t this site let us stay logged in? I have to log in each time to comment.
Anyway – all the ice that fell from the last storm is still on the trees and grass thanks to ZERO sun and cold temps.
Definitely pot of chili weather.
Grrrr. Have to log in each time to comment
All the ice is still on the trees and gra-s-s from last storm thanks to zero sun and sub 32 temps
Definitely pot of chili weather
Looks like the East is left out of this one.Probably get a coating of ice like the last system.Hopefully won’t lay on highway’s like the last one.
We get left out the majority of the time in the east not a good place for snow lovers very frustrating I do wish someone would explain why we get left out I don’t think it’s just the fact we are farther south or east
Bowling Green supermarkets are experiencing a Breadandmilkopolypse
Here in Johnson Co. we have been around 30 all day and fog. The satellite shows we should be clear but the fog is locked in and we have had sprinkles all day. The temps will stay like this till the fog moves out. I don’t think that will happen till the storm gets here I guess we will get more of everything since we are colder. Did anyone in the MTS. break into sun today?
If It Was Clear Today I would Be more confident That This Storm Coming Would Be All Snow.
I Pray This will Happen Tomorrow ?
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It’s the Warm Air Aloft Causing The Fog, Mist And Low Clouds.
This Is A Temperature Inversion Caused By The Southeast Ridge.
It’s Better to Be Under Clear Cold skies When A Winter Storm Watch Is Out.
That will Assure Snow Instead Of Freezing Rain And Sleet.
All The Major Snowstorms I’ve Seen In The Past Always Started With Clear Cold Skies Followed By Increasing High Cirrus Clouds And Then Snow.
I’ve Seen Very Few Ice Events Until I Moved To Central Kentucky In 2008.
I Just Wonder If This Is Caused By A Very Warm Gulf Of Mexico And Atlantic Strengthening The Bermuda High. Southeast Ridge ? Climate Change ?
Anyone know when the next runs come out?