Good Friday everyone and welcome to the weekend. We have a lot of winter coming our way over this next week that can easily turn out to feature the worst weather of the entire season. We have several snow chances with another big eastern U.S. winter storm and major arctic outbreak lurking.
The first threat for snow will come tonight into Saturday as a storm across the Gulf of Mexico throws moisture our way. It still looks like we get one weak low pressure to work into the eastern Tennessee Valley late tonight with the parent low across the Carolinas heading toward New England. This setup will feature a mixture of light rain and light snow developing across the south late today into the evening then lifting northward tonight. This is not going to be a big storm by any stretch of the imagination, but can put down a few inches of wet snow for areas that are all snow. I like the looks of my snow map from last night…
The way the GFS sees this playing out in terms of precipitation type looks like the way to go…
Whatever snow falls will be on the slushy side as temps never get to far away from the freezing mark into Saturday. I will update the snow map later today.
Our next snow maker will be rolling into town late Sunday night into Monday in the form of an arctic front and associated low pressure. Just ahead of the front… temps will spike up to a few degrees above freezing with light rain and light snow breaking out. Most of the precipitation should be just behind the front in the arctic air meaning the majority of what falls from later Monday into early Tuesday would be snow.
Here is the GFS…
Temps would crash behind this front and winds should gust up as snow showers and squalls continue into Tuesday. Accumulating snows are a good bet during this time.
That brings us to the middle and end of the week and what is a very strong signal for a major winter storm for the eastern half of the country that would be followed by a brutal shot of arctic air. The impact this potential storm will have on our region remains to be seen as we have many days to track it and many model waffles to go through. Needless to say… we should be in the ball game this go around.
GFS
I know… I know… it should be fun to see what new way mother nature can find to cause this storm to miss us! 
Once the storm goes by (regardless of what it bring us)… a MAJOR arctic outbreak will be diving southward into the region for late Thursday into Friday and is likely to bring the coldest air of the season…
With such a strong signal for another massive winter storm and arctic outbreak… you will be hearing more and more about this setup over the next few days from local and national weather folks.
Now can you see why I am thinking next week might bring the worst of the winter? 
I will have more updates coming later today so check back. Have a great Friday and take care.
First!?!
Don’t tell me I’m the only one up??? Oh well… Like what you had to say El’Chris-O!!! Bring it on!
Well, I am not going to get excited one bit until tuesday evening. If the models agree on a major event by then, then yeah ill be psyched. But I have been disappointed wayyyyy to many times this winter. Not aiming any of this at CB or Jim Caldwell, but more at the models. They show some apocalyptic winter storms for four or five days then at the last minute show a very cold rain and a slushy backside. (not dogging december. We had an awesome december here in harlan county. nearly 20+ inches.) but come tuesday evening, heck maybe even monday evening, if the models show a humdinger, then i might get excited but please people, dont start building this next storm up until at least monday if things still look promising. Hopfully, we get smacked in the mouth. But, i am not holding my breath. All we can do is taunt mother nature. I SAY THIS TO YOU RIGHT NOW MOTHER NATURE… ” I DARE YOU TO DUMP A HUGE SNOW ON KY. I DARE YOU. I THINK YOU ARE SCARED TO YOU CHICKEN. HAMMER US AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS. MOTHER NATURE IS SCAREDDDDDDD. HAHAHHAHAHAHA. MOTHER NATURE KNOWS BETTER THAN TO DELIVER A HUGE EVENT TO THE BIG BLUE NATION!!!!!” HEHHEHEHEHEHEHEHE
Well, it looks like someone gave ol’ Phil some Lunesta. Now that he’s sleeping like a baby, winter shall commence for another 6 weeks, thank you very much.
Speaking from the center of the Snowdome here in Central KY, I’d hold off on that snow excitement until Wednesday evening. Simply put, major snowfall predictions from this far out simply don’t pan out. And yes, it is modeling’s fault…computer modeling simply has a long way to go. I predict 2-4″ at most for Central KY out of the storm late next week, and that’s IF we get lucky. If we are to get a major snowfall in this area, we will almost certainly be surprised by it.
NOT AGAIN??? Here we are six to seven days out and I am going to be calling all my family to let them know about this huge storm that we MIGHT be getting next week. They will laugh at me and say, “Yeah Right! Your are O for 4 on the big ones” and I will say no! This one looks real promising…I can’t do it anymore. I just can’t!!! I will wait for the frist two to come through and now cast from Tues/Fri. Lou. area needs this to come a little futher north/west to get the hammer but not to far that my fellow snow lovers in the SE KY get all rain. I HATE COLD RAIN…THINK SNOW THINK SNOW THINK SNOW
I’ll believe it when I see it!!
Yikes, that looks so cold!
Speaking too, from the center of the Snowdome in CKY… I think this time around I’m gonna have to go with – I’m not getting excited until I actually see the SNOW on the ground! 😛
Typically, even in the Winters where we get the big storms, there are breaks from the cold every so often and the short term weather goes up and down depending on the week. This year has been nothing short of amazing. Never can I remember December 1st ushering in brutal cold and snow that PERSISTED through February (and maybe longer). You have to admit, this Winter has been wild…not just for Kentucky.
Hey Shawn!!!
Why is it so hard to believe that if we can have constant heat and drought for three solid months with no let up, that we can have three solid months of cold with no let up?
I agree with WXman. I don’t recall a winter where it got cold and stayed cold for weeks and weeks with snow on the ground and nothing melting. Even if some have not had the “Big One”, I’ve had plenty of snow to last me through the spring, summer and fall.
My Texas relatives are snowed in and freaking out. They are in Houston, Austin and Fort Worth. This is a big day for them. Frozen precip, frozen pipes, and my mom is horrified that her birdbath is a skating rink. 🙂
over 5″ of snow on the ground in and around Dallas Texas this morning…
Bigger event than here- funny and ironic 🙂
That is my banter for now. Bubba-free for any “forecast” of events until mid/end next week- as promised 🙂
Bubba knows compassion 🙂
Well it looks like it’s getting to the point that I don’t have to post anymore. All my Central KY buddies are doing it for me. Sorry guys Cent.KY is what it is. Despite one of the most consistently cold winters in quite some time, we managed to miss big snow to the north,south,east and west. Unbelievable.
And here we are again. 6 days away from the biggest one of all.
So, to quote Mr. Bailey:
“I know… I know… it should be fun to see what new way mother nature can find to cause this storm to miss us! ”
Near term, the 12Z NAM appears to be wetter and colder. It is showing .25 – .50″ of moisture for a good part of Kentucky. Might get enough snow afterall to get a slight pack going for next week.
Looking at the national radar it’s hard to see how we don’t get a decent snow from this tonight. It looks to be heading straight at us.
found this video, kinda eerie…just reporting it…YOU DECIDE!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UigIKA79f38
I don’t believe it. Will believe it when I see it. Not that I don’t believe what Chris says but I think mother nature just likes to tease everyone.
If we get anything in central Ky I bet you ANYTHING it’s 2″
Hey 2″ breaks the top 10 list 😉 lol
If it breaks the top 10 is there any way we can compare how many individual snows it took to get there this year in comparison to the top 10?
two inches at the most. way the ball bounces in good old ky
I’m showing my age, but this winter has been a lot like the 1976-77 winter. Lots of cold, lots of snow (but never a big one). I’m ready for spring.
Was I dreaming about it being 60 degrees last weekend? lol… I mean, I remember winters where we had many more warm days than we’ve had… but we have at least had one or two mixed in there.
I’ll admit this has seemed like one of the coldest winters we’ve had in a while, but I remember a winter I went to UK when I was certain I would freeze to death by the time the season was over and that wasn’t all that long ago.
I’m ready for an early Spring! I would love to be able to sit in my porch swing again. Plus these HUGE electric bills are downright depressing.
watching the national radar I don’t see how we don”t get a decent little snow fall. Stuff’s coming right at us. Of course when it gets here it will part like the red sea or become virga.
Un-freakinbelievable!!!
well with Winter storm warnings, with snow/ice all the way to Brownsville,Texas…any bets on snow/ice with Winter weather advisories for Florida next week??? could be interesting to see just how far south into Florida it could make it…
It will break the Top 10 for meterological winter (Dec-Feb), but not for the entire winter season (Jul-Jun). Mike asks as good question–have so many systems ever produced so little amounts?
Let’s answer this.
We are at 24.1 inches so far in Lexington.
This is the snowiest winter since 1995-1996. That winter had 31 inches of snow (barely missing the Top 10). We had in that winter we had a 13 inch snowfall (Jan 6-8) and a 6 inch snowfall (Late March).
The last winter to break the Top 10 was 1993-1994. We remember the MLK snow apocalypse that brought -20 temps to Lexington and -37 to Shelbyville.
We need 7.6 inches of snow to tie 1993-1994 and move into the Top 10.
At the top of the list is 1916-1917 with 53 inches. January 1917–11 inches of snow on one day. March 1917–9 inches of snow on one day.
#2 on the list is a tie with 1977-1978 (The blizzard of 1978) and 1917-1918 (big snow in December of 1917)
#3 on the list is 1950-1951. There was a blizzard in November 1950 and another one combined with an ice storm in February 1951
We’ll stop there for now–but it seems to me most winters comparable to this have contained 1 or 2 big ticket events. Does it mean we can still have it? Well, Late Feb and March of 1960 says yes.
Well, I can deal with cold temps and a big snow, but I am hoping that tonights and tomorrows stays more north. We are going to Tennessee for a wedding tomorrow, and I don’t want to travel in bad conditions…otherwise, Chris, it’s still winter, so bring on the big one and lets get this party going! 😉
Have a GREAT Friday, all!
Notice we’re always taking about a storm five days off. Just the other day, it was the Monday event. Now, we’re looking towards Wednesday.
Like others, I’ll believe it when I see it. The GFS maps posted show yet another suppressed storm that turns up the coast. Maybe the GFS is up to its old tricks, but that track fits the season.
My guess, another near miss that really only affects the far eastern portions of the state.
I know. It seems we just can’t trust the models (for our area only)…….It sure seems other areas of the country have no trouble with model forecasting days in advance and mostly being accurate…But it doesn’t work that way in our area (during winter)……….Perhaps the fact that we are just west of the apps…..I don’t know……Strange they were able to do it in the 70’s and 80s, but not now.
mainly a cold rain for anyone east of 1-65. the upper los is tracking to far west pulling in warm air.
that is a typical GFS bias overall this 12z surpressed run is a good sign for snow around here you know a correction north and west will come it always does.
Midwest blizzard moved north west….winter storm before that moved north west…Kentucky is in a sweet spot for a major event. Just need to get all the players on the table and see if the current models shift north west. I am hoping the first two coming through are both over achievers. It will really suck if Atlanta gets two major winter storms in one season…
I say we go into ALERT MODE,no not that alert mode we should call it the same ole,same ole alert mode because we all know whats coming for central KY 1-3 inches again.Hope not,but we shall see.Nothing against CB just know how strong the dome is.
12Z GFS supresses the entire late week storm. Half-full; half-empty… time for it to come back north.
Yeah this winter has had plenty of days in the high 40’s even 50’s and 60’s for us in the south central part of the state. While it has been cold, there has been breaks.
The biggest snows are those the farthest out in time
Its really hasn’t snowed over an inch in Frankfort in like 3 weeks now that I think about It lol
12z gfs says no Armageddon this time…LOL…. Maybe by the 18z…
is that a blade of green grass I see out there?????….uh…oh…no…nevermind, it was just a piece of green string blowing around in the yard….LOL…LOL…..(spring-ful thinking) esp..if we dont get this storm coming next week…its gonna be FULL-FORCE SPRING FOR ME!!!
Well we certainly haven’t had breaks here. It’s been well below average each and every week since Dec. 1.
12Z GFS takes us way above freezing tomorrow which would be devastating to snow accumulations.
very, eerie. Tim, only 1 entity knows when this old world is done and over, and I am waiting on Him. period.
Yeah, I guess it depends on what part of the state you are in.I know last week, it was low 30’s in the northern part of the state, and mid 50’s here. Kentucky is in a crazy area were wild temperature swings can happen over short distances.
Yep and the 12Z NAM was quite a bit warmer as well. Would not be surprised to see the advisory shifted northwest a bit later this afternoon. Hard to see how the areas along and east of a Bowling Green to Lexington line would get much if the thermal profiles are right.
can’t help but see similarities of next week set up and that of the storm an Jan 26th. I don’t see this one dragging in as much warm air, but the last storm seemed to take a hard turn east before heading northeast. Went right around southeast Ohio. Is the artic high a little further west in this set up? I think that may help my situation up here!
Why is that a surprise? The forecast for Lexington today has been well above freezing.
Bring the snow to Versailles! I would love a foot of snow! That being said, I like everyone else will believe it when I see it.
Yeah, if Georgia gets this one again, I’ll be heading down to my parents’ place with the kiddo to sled! Hope it won’t happen this time though!
After reading the comments for next week’s ‘big one’, I’m still noticing ones living by the models one run at a time.
Here, let’s make it worth your while. Why not look at when the models first came on board with this system. Next, compare the consecutive runs. Where do you stand?
Now, compare today’s runs. Are there any consecutive runs of at least 2 positive/negative events. If so, then we got something to talk about.
I’m already taking notes on how many times this system is going to change by next week. Could be another lesson in futility.
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