Good Wednesday everyone and Happy Groundhog Day. Shadow or not… our furry little friend will be in a rather foul mood when he or she comes out of hibernation and feels the wicked winds howling outside. This is all in response to the massive winter storm that has crippled much of the country and we are only getting winds and crashing temps out of this bad boy. The next week will find us plenty busy tracking two more storms and a possible arctic outbreak.

The weather today is rather wild with gusty winds and cold air moving in. The cold front will be well to our east early this morning as the cold settles in. The temp swing behind this front is dramatic with most areas going through a 20 degree or better plunge in just a few hours. The winds early today can cause some problems as gusts of 40-50mph will be possible.

Track the winds and temps here…

Sustained Winds

Current Temps


Wind Chill


Much of the day will be filled with a mix of sun and clouds with the threat for a few snow showers or flurries at times. This does not look like a very big deal as most of the backlash snows will be to our north and our winds never really become northwesterly. Whatever is out there will show up here…



Thursday will be a cold day with highs in the 30s under partly sunny skies.

Our next storm system will be getting going across the Gulf of Mexico by Friday and will send clouds our way by the end of the day. This will not be a huge storm… but it should be able to produce a swath of accumulating snows across our region. A weak, lead low should work northward into the eastern Tennessee Valley by Friday night as a stronger low develops and works into the Carolinas early Saturday and then eventually into New England.

The weaker the lead low is… the better the chance most areas see all snow. The stronger this is… the higher the chance areas in the southeast see some light rain mixing in. The GFS precipitation type forecast shows this…


Areas that are all snow can pick up on a few inches of the white stuff and we will figure all that out as we see how this lead low looks. There is an outside shot this can become “threat” worthy if everything falls into place.

A weak system will then dive in here for Sunday with the chance for some light snow or flurries.

The look of the pattern early next week will find a major shot of arctic air crashing southward into the plains states. This happens as energy dives toward the base of the digging trough and is likely to cause a storm to form. The question becomes… do we see a full blown major storm or more of an arctic wave that forms along the front?

The latest GFS likes the arctic wave idea…


That would actually be a healthy snow event for the Ohio Valley, including much of our region.

The Canadian Model has been among the first to sniff out storms in the extended range this winter. It is skipping the arctic wave and going toward the bigger storm idea again for next week…



Regardless of an arctic wave or a bigger storm… most of the models agree on a heck of a shot of arctic air for much of the country coming in soon thereafter. The GFS looks cccccoooolllldddd…



As is usually the case with the GFS… take it with a grain of salt and instead use it as a sign we are going back into another very cold stretch for the next few weeks.

I will have more updates later today so check back. I leave you with a Groundhog Day public service announcement…



Take care.