Good Wednesday, folks. As our super-duper chilly May pattern rolls on, I thought we should take a little look at the summer ahead. I mean, we really do need something to warm us up right now… Don’t we? 🤷‍♂️

Before we get to what a few of the models are thinking in terms of summer, we must focus on this historic run of May misery.

We continue to run well below normal for temps and there’s the potential for a little frost Thursday Morning. Temps do start to climb some by the weekend, but that’s dependent on the amount of clouds and any rain that rolls in.

Temps next week do get closer to normal, with the EURO being a little above early on…

In the world of weather, summer is defined as June-August so that’s what we are looking at here. The seasonal models are really locking in on what I’ve been saying for a while now… A rather tame summer in terms of temps.

The CFS seasonal model is showing temps around here averaging cooler than normal…

It does so while also forecasting much above normal rainfall…

The EURO Seasonal Model is biased too warm and dry and has been for a long time now. Still, if we know the biases and adjust for them, we can use it to our advantage. Case in point is the forecast from April for the current cold May we are experiencing. The model has slightly above normal temps…

I mean… we are currently on pace for the coldest May on record in Lexington, sooooooooo. The model did the same thing with the February forecast from January. It just cannot see colder than normal temps, yet folks keep spitting it out verbatim as if it’s the gospel. It’s not, nor is any model for that matter.

The current run of the EURO Seasonal for the summer ahead has temps around normal…

Again, is that the model actually agreeing with the CFS?

In terms of precipitation, the bias of the EURO is to be too dry and that’s especially the case as we head into the tropical season. The model doesn’t suggest a lot of tropical activity based on this rainfall forecast…

Of course, the model didn’t do too well forecasting last season’s hyper hurricane action. For us, that’s forecasting normal to slightly below normal rainfall by a whopping .25″-1″. DROUGHT!!!! 😋

We will have some more summer goodies coming in the days ahead. Have a good one and take care.