Good Monday afternoon everyone. We are seeing firsthand the power of low level arctic cold air as it is being very stubborn in many areas. Temps continue to run at or below freezing for the northern half of the state and we have already had one round of light freezing rain that resulted in numerous accidents this morning.
Radar trends and the latest short range RUC model indicate precipitation will continue to break out this afternoon into the evening hours. This will be rain for areas south of I-64… but areas to the north can have some freezing rain. That will especially be the case the farther north one lives and this can lead to another glazing and possible slick travel.
Track the precip and temps here…
Current Temps
The latest run of the NAM came in much colder with the storm ahead as it keeps the 32 degree line across far northern Kentucky all day Tuesday. This could spell trouble for our far northern counties with an enhanced batch of freezing rain being possible..
A WINTER STORM WATCH continues for Boone, Kenton and Campbell counties in northern Kentucky and the NAM says that is for good reason. We will continue to watch the model trends in handling this shallow cold air mass and have updates as needed.
The rest of the forecast with this storm appears to be in good shape with a dramatic temp drop and switch to snow from west to east on Wednesday.
I see the models are now getting a little more aggressive with the next storm for this coming weekend. That one will be fun to track.
More updates as needed so check back. Have a great afternoon and take care.
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Thank for the update Chris! JUST SO IT STAYS AWAY FROM WOODFORD PLEASE
We still have temps in the upper 30s here, Chris. When is the “warm up” going to begin for southern KY? I know its a rainy forecast, but then temps are not behiving the way they are supposed to! 😉
Thanks for looking out for your NKY peeps! The only place I want ice, is in my Coca Cola!!!! 🙁
NExt storm on the horizon (I guess this weekend)..All I know is don’t try to pull it to far West,,(look what happened last time–I think this blog was responsible for “wishing” it to far west and we got to much rain rather than snow. So, don’t wish to hard, just wish it would shift west just enough.
While my initial concern for the areas between Carrollton to Cincy remain, I’m still very sure that nothing more than a winter weather advisory would be in place, if that, because warmer air will overtake the area before the really heavy stuff moves in later tonight and tomorrow.
I looked at a recent synopsis for the Indy area. Hopefully, more sleet will mix in at times before serious icing takes a toll. Otherwise, it will become a nightmarish event with all ice.
You can check the wxmaps web site for more info and click under meteograms.
CB….do you think if the latest nam were to verify you would go into alert mode for the Covington area?
North KY and 75 miles north across a few states have potential of some mean ice. That area is the fence like the center half of KY was in 2009. This event seems it could be worse than 2009.
IMO, don’t count on it. Still, a minor accumulation of ice can cause problems, like this morning. But, temps should warm enough before the heavy stuff moves in. Perhaps a winter weather advisory for that area.
WOW…upper 30’s in somerset, yet here in Barbourville, 55!!…IM HOLDING ON TIGHT TO THE WARM WEATHER DOWN HERE…LOL….
I suspect a shocker in the making..
yea… well i was just comparing nam runs from earlier to the latest and the peak of where the 32 line sets up is about 40-50 miles further south than previous runs. but i am starting to think that cincinnati area is going to be on the far southern fringe of this major ice storm…meaning it gets a 2009 or even 2003 type icing event and perhaps areas as close by as florence or walton get just a more moderate icing. here at my place in park hills its sitting at 28 degrees. I’ll try to post a map with my thoughts.
Anyone else slightly concerned by the temps? I mean it was supposed to get to the 40’s today in Lexington… it’s only 32. I wonder if they really have this thing as pegged as they think they do…
Shocker for who?
What do you mean by this?
I am! Only 45 now in Louisville area. Seems to be increasing concern with more than one met for ice potential in northern KY counties. Not sure if they are talking about counties north and east of Jefferson, KY or if we would be included. Wave 3 I know is watching our area closely as counties just north of viewing area in IN have been upgraded to ‘warning’ now. I know that they are supposed to get a lot of snow there too near Seymour. At least that is what I read recently.
wondering the same! (this is the second time i have posted the exact same words–earlier update too) Seems like this one was nailed down, now the temps are misbehavin’ hahaa
I’ve been thinking that, as well, for the past day or so…it’s like, they have called for storms the past couple of times to hit us, only to have them not come to fruition…and now they’re very convinced this will all stay to the N of us….it’s a scene from Jan 16, 1994 all over again, IMO..we shall see! 🙂
To anyone who replied to my comment… I am saying I would not at all be surprised at an Ice storm affecting central ky, i64 north. Look at temps today. It is cold as heck outside in lexington. And, it would be so typical for a unhyped HUGE ice storm to hit CKY.
62 degrees here in Middlesboro right now. 3 straight days of 60+ degree.
I just looked at the local temps for Louisville and it reports that the current temp is 36 and is suppose to be 40 by 3:00…
im in the louisville area. can some one pleazz tell me should i have any concern for the ice? all i heard for this area is rain now im hearing diffrent. and i dont want any part of the ice!!!!
Yep. It always seems like the ones they say AREN’T going to get us are the ones that do… and pack the worst punch. Heck the NAM showed us getting a good bit of snow last week and we got nothing. It’s all just a matter of this storm moving a few miles one way or the other (isn’t it always with Central KY though!?
So yeah… I won’t be sitting here expecting it to happen (like last week!), but I’ll be ready for it if it does.
I mean, like I pointed out above… the expected high today (as of this morning, was well into the 40’s). I heard 48 on the way to work this morning. It’s not even above freezing right now.
A met friend of mine just told me he suspects this storm will go further east and south due to the pressing high. He said “some” of KY could be in for more ice and snow than currently predicted. Should be fun!
Temps should go up as the low approaches. Maybe, Unless those highs are just that strong.lol
lol… yeah, Lexington is sitting at 32 (gone up to that from 28 this morning) and it’s supposed to be 39 by 4:00. That’s a big jump in temp right there.
Hmmmm.. my thermometer says 34 here in Elizabethtown. Wasn’t it supposed to get warmer? I could have sworn they said upper 40’s?
temps aproach upper 40 tomm as storm cranks up for central ky.
On a good note, NWS keeps upping our snow percentages for Tues night/Wednesday.
Is that a good sign or……?
This morning was unbelievable in Lexington. I slid sideways across the bridge at exit 113 on I75, and saw 3 other cars that weren’t as me. Looked in my rearview and saw more problems. Be careful out there guys, especially on those bridges!
37 degrees in Adair Co. I was looking for the middle 40’s at least today. Could we see something besides rain??
it has been 40 degrees in London since 5:30 this morning … has not moved!! I was really hoping it would get in the 50’s, but no such luck; they are giving 60’s tomorrow but i doubt it will happen. At least there is no ice!!!!
Upper 30s here too, Tim…share the wealth, my friend! LoL!
That’s what I’ve been thinking too, Linc..Imean, how many storms have we had-well, at least since 2003-have been hyped to produce snow here in NC KY, only to get an ice storm? Christmas ’04 was good for LOU far as snow, but here in Nelson Co, terrible ice…I seem to remember a couple other times too (other than ’09)where snow was 4cast only to get ice…not a lot, but enough to qualify as a ‘mini-ice storm’…
Like you (and I) think..they predict it,we don’t get it; they remain sure of themselves for it to stay away from us, we get SLAMMED!
Between this update and the latest from the WAVE bog, I’m beginning to get a bit concerned.
I have wondered if a major ice storm hits here in the cincy area maybe i should not drive up to northern indiana. i do not want to drive through an ice storm. from what i have looked at here my area may not get over 32 for a large bulk of the precip. i think the southern fringe of the ice zone is setting up right over the ohio river here.
The WAA in a storm this potent will likely be off the charts for those south of the low track. Its not out of the realm of possibility that one side of the storm could have temps in the mid 60s with thunderstorms while 100 miles away it could be in the 20s or lower with heavy snow (or ice)… If the low tracks over the top of CKY, as it is forecast to do, we will be well above freezing…
i agree 😉
part of Lou. NOAA Forecast
A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PENETRATED AS FAR SOUTH AS TENNESSEE SUNDAY
EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN THERE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE
BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY EARLY TUESDAY.
main word being ATTEMPTING….What if the cold air does not move back up. JUST SAYING!!!!! The track will not be what the models are saying. There is a margine for error…
who is “we”?
CKY
I live in the Russell/Flatwoods area and we had the freezing rain earlier with a layer of ice on everything for awhile. We have finally hit 32 deg at 3:00pm. Does it look like this ice may move into my direction or maybe stay just north of us. I work in the school system and so does my husband just wondering if we may need to plan for some days off this week. maybe/maybe not!
I am new to this site. I live in Adair Co. Do you consider us central KY?
thanks for clarifying. And very happy that we would be above freezing!
You are southern.
I am curious about this storm as well. Yesterday, I was hopeless. This morning I was hopeless. However, for the last storm the air was warmer than expected last time at this point in the casting….
It’s possible those of us in CKY would get something out of it. I really doubt we do, but there’s a chance– which is more than I thought this morning.
It’s going to be a close call for people living let’s say I-64 and points north. Should be ok, but any deviation of track southward by 75 to 100 miles and north and north central KY would have a icing problem also. However if models are correct most of KY should be ok with just a glancing blow from this. This storm track is not set in stone it’s going to be a hour by hour kind of thing.
Hi Tommy, I’m sitting down here in Oakbrook. Let’s try to push this bad boy back north…
What does WAA stand for? Sorry, I’m new to weather tracking : )
It is still not above freezing in Northern Rowan County (Morehead), Ice is still solid on my decks, looks like we are starting to get some more “drizzle” I know everyone is talking about Cincy/Northern Ky, but what about all the counties that Border the Ohio River such as Lewis County?
Must be new to the state too…
It has only gotten to 33 here in Shelbyville.
Perhaps misunderstanding your post, but seems warm air will not be a prevalent in extreme north KY on up. Seems more of a chance than not to have ice problems.
COLD rain here at New Circle and Winchester Road in Lexington. It doesnt appear to be freezing to anything.
If you take a look at the warning maps issued by the NWS, the cold side of the storm looks as though it’s making a conscious effort to miss the entire state of Kentucky. I want no part of the ice, but time after time the big storms just miss us and it gets tiring.
I was reading some of the NWS forecasts for the areas under blizzard warnings and I was so jealous. One place in Missouri is expecting 17-21 inches with high winds. Others like Knasas City are expecting at least 7-10 inches of snow followed by blowing snow.
I’m glad Chris says the pattern looks very actice into February, but does anyone really expect our luck to change? We’ve had plenty of cold and gotten almost nothing. TN has had better chances at big storms than the state of Kentucky.
Sorry for the rant, but we live in a terrible place for snow.
From the NWS in Louisville:
…A STRONG WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING FREEZING RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY…
.A VERY STRONG WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TODAY WILL BRING AMPLE ICE AND SNOW TO THE MIDWEST.
FORTUNATELY…THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TAKE THE MAJORITY OF ITS
WINTRY MIX TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER…THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY BRINGING FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN TWO TENTHS AND FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH
WILL BE LIKELY IN ORANGE…WASHINGTON…SCOTT…AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN INDIANA. OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS
WELL AS TRIMBLE…OLDHAM…HENRY…AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN
KENTUCKY MAY RECEIVE ICE ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
In Snowlover’s defense I have lived in the state my entire life and it’s confusing as hell sometimes when it comes to forecasts, because sometimes u are included in Northern KY warnings, EKY warnings,CKY warnings..and it just depends on the sites..I live in Morehead and I have asked the very same question because we have been included in ALL areas at some point or another…anyway WELCOME to the site Snowlover 🙂
As I was looking at your blog I was watching the four o’clock news.How is your forecast are so much different.Don’t you all look at basically at the same models.When trying to make decisions on school events and the like one does not know who to listen to.For hat is happening tonight and this weekend your far apart.I know you were way closer last time but at times it has been Lexington.All of you do a great job but it makes it hard when one says one thing and the other is 180 degrees different.Just my thoughts.
I completely agree! I would love to be in the middle of this big snow/ice event!
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
341 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
…AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN INTO TUESDAY MORNING…
KYZ101-OHZ076-085>087-WVZ009>011-020-031-032-038>040-010445-
/O.NEW.KRLX.ZR.Y.0002.110131T2041Z-110201T1000Z/
GREENUP-WASHINGTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
DODDRIDGE-HARRISON-TAYLOR-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLATWOODS…RUSSELL…RACELAND…
MARIETTA…BELPRE…GALLIPOLIS…IRONTON…SOUTH POINT…PARKERSBURG…VIENNA…ST. MARYS…BELMONT…PADEN CITY…
SISTERSVILLE…MIDDLEBOURNE…WEST UNION…CLARKSBURG…
BRIDGEPORT…GRAFTON…COWEN…BUCKHANNON…PHILIPPI…BELINGTON
341 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011
…FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY.
* TIMING: NOW UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY…FOR POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN…ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OUTLYING AREAS.
* ICE ACCUMULATIONS: A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
* OTHER IMPACTS: UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME SLIPPERY
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR POCKETS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT…THAT MAY CAUSE ICY ROADS.
Warm air aloft, check out riddlesweather.com!
i feel an ice storm coming for my area of ky.. Just as i said earlier and now look advisory and warnings are coming out. you gotta love the gut feeling..
As expected, a Winter Weather Advisory for that area. Ice accumulations will be relatively light in comparison to other locations that will see ice throughout most of this event. The current thinking (obviously subject to change) is that these areas will reach the critical freezing point before the stuff really gets ugly.
can this storm still come south or is this track set in stone?
OMG.you have to look at this.Now i know there is some kind of dark force working to deprive ky of snow.It looks like a snake or some other animal ready to swallow Ky….LOL
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep24060.gif
That’s my question, as well. If we’re talking potential ice, I wanna be prepared.
tommy keep ur crazy rump home on this one ole buddy. to seerious of a storm up northto go see this time round/
No, I think WAA is warm air advection – warm air moving into a region by horizontal winds.
Thats a picture of Darth Bubba sucking all the moisture out of ky.
Look at the blizzard warnings now..
I don’t think so, the warm air is starting to push into the sw part of Kentucky. We may get just a tad but the WAA will win out by morning.
it is raining pretty good right now and the temp is 30.9. looks like a coating of ice on my swing outside my front window. Just outside of Flatwoods, KY
New post
I also read some of those forecasts and I am not jealous at all. Rather, I am extremely relieved. We had a terrible time with the ice in 2003 and 2009. No power, no phone, no way to get off our property due to downed trees, etc.
We have farm animals to care for and we can’t “get out and play”, as so many on here want to do. No ice and no blizzards are fine by me. 🙂
Hello Mr. Expert,
When are going to write up a follow up article on this post… is it going to be anytime soon? 🙂
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