9:45am Update
A batch of very light freezing rain has developed across parts of the northern half of the state and will continue into early this afternoon. This is putting down a light glaze that is causing numerous accidents. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is out for areas along and north of the BG Parkway and for along and a few counties on either side of I-64 from Louisville to Ashland.
Track the light icing here…
Help us out by giving some reports from where you live. Have a great Monday and take care.
Previous Update
Good Monday everyone and welcome to the last day of the month. February is going to get off to a wicked start for much of the country as a massive, perhaps historic, winter storm cranks up. Kentucky will be on the outside looking in for the worst of this storm as it skirts by to the north. This storm will have some impact on our region and we will break that down in a bit. We will also take a look at a pattern loaded with more storms and cold for the next few weeks.
Short term weather will feature mostly cloudy skies across the region today with a stalled out front just to our south. This front may touch off a stray shower… especially in the south. There will be yet another big temp gradient setting up with the north in the 30s and the south pushing 50. If one of these showers can get going in the far north… we would have to watch for something frozen falling from the sky.
You can follow today’s temp swing here…
Current Temps
A gigantic winter storm will be developing later today into Tuesday and will track from the southern plains into the southern and eastern Ohio Valley by early Wednesday. A WINTER STORM WATCH is out for our far northern Kentucky counties of Boone, Kenton and Campbell for Tuesday for the potential for this storm to clip those counties with a decent amount of freezing rain.
Take a look at just how many states will be dealing with this storm…
That is an amazing site to see. This storm will basically close down many states for a number of days. A blizzard will rage for areas from Oklahoma into the Great Lakes where some 2 feet of snow will be likely. Just to the south of the heaviest snows will be a band of devastating ice setting up. If you have travel plans over the next few days into the plains, midwest, great lakes or northeast… you may want to rethink them.
What does this storm mean for us?
– Rain will increase from southwest to northeast Monday night and Tuesday as this storm gets rolling.
– Areas across near the Covington/Cincinnati metro may see a few hours of freezing rain before changing to rain.
– Heavy rains will then be possible for many… especially central and western Kentucky.
– The low will move through Tuesday night and drag a cold front across the state. There should be enough instability ahead of this front for some rumbles of thunder.
– Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will gust up to 40mph or better.
– Rain will change to snow and snow showers quickly from west to east Wednesday and continue into Wednesday night. Some light accumulations will be possible.
– Temps are going to take a walk on the wild side from Tuesday into Wednesday with a heck of a gradient setting up and a heck of a temp plunge for Wednesday. Here is how the NAM sees this swing…
– As the front blows through… temps where you live will drop some 20-25 degrees in just an hour or two.
As we look farther down the road, we see two more storms that will try to develop in the coming 10 days or so. The next system will get going across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday then move northeast up the east coast by Saturday. What this storm will bring us remains to be seen… but the many of the models are tracking this system well to our east. If the seasonal trend holds true… look for this storm to come west as well. 
GFS
Next week should feature another storm developing as arctic air plunges southward into the country…
GFS Next Monday
You can see the amount of bitter cold ready to engulf much of the country behind whatever system develops. This is something the GFS Ensembles have been hitting hard in recent days. Look at the temp departure map from the Ensembles…
While we are on the outside looking in for the real winter aspect of this storm… winter is a long way from being over and I suspect February is going to give us a good smacking before all is said and done.
I must admit… thoughts of spring are beginning to fill the mind of your friendly weather dude. 
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting in a few weeks and March Madness hoops is just around the corner. Just thought I would throw that in. haha
I will have more updates later today so check back. Have a great Monday and take care.
I will accept thunderstorms,but I still would rather have snow. Lol
Me too Llncoln! Maybe next week. Hope is still alive.
Wow I wonder how much snow my hometown outside of Chicago is going to get. Looks like there are getting slammed. Glad I’m not there. I love snow but know just how bad it can get and this looks like it will shut down the whole city. I guess they better get the snow plows and tow trucks lined up. I usually love snow but would definitely pass on this one.
Did this storm trend northwest? Since this wasn’t affecting our area I thought the models had it right days ago.
I’m very thankful that we are NOT getting in on this one after seeing what that ice storm did to our area a couple of years ago. I like me a good snow, but this thing is looking ridiculous!
Didn’t see anyone forecast this..light freezing drizzle/freezing rain in Lawrenceburg right now. 28 degrees.
Count me as surprised.
So we are getting a bit of snow on the back end of this Wednesday? DId I read that right?
I think winter is over for the most part around here… maybe a few more 1 inch or less nuisance snows. We missed the big one again this year, but imagine what next winter holds! Given the trend of the past few years, it’ll be an even bigger winter than what we are seeing now 🙂
Sorry CB, have to disagree with you there… 😉 You can have your thoughts of spring, I am still stuck on snow. And its only February, hope is alive and well. 🙂
We always doe- The 33/32 degree rule 😉
The forecasts for our area (Lex) last night had our lows for overnight sitting at about 36 degrees and the highs for today at around 50. I woke up this morning and it’s 28.
This is why I don’t place too much faith in any forecast for this area. It seems like none of them are ever right until it’s actually happening.
I live in Indy and it looks like we’re getting an incredible 2 inches of ice
Moderation… argh.
Anyway, I was saying… it’s hard to place any faith in any of our forecasts when, like last night, they’re (meaning the various news casts and weather sites) saying the lows will be around 36 (well above freezing) and you wake up to 28 (well below).
Since we aren’t gonna get any snow, I’d love to see this thing pull even further north and miss us altogether with any precip. type. It would be nice to have a string of dry days, but I realize that with a storm this size, there is very little real estate east of the Rockies that will escape some efffect…
I hope that’s not the case – that would be devastating!
Freezing rain in Lawrenceburg this morning. Jeep was covered in ice, and as soon as I hit my driveway my feet came out from under me. I busted up my hand and my knee a little but I’m OK. 🙂 Even I didn’t expect the ice. wow.
Yes I’ll Take a couple BIG MAC of days in the 60’s and 70’s…a SPRING water HOLD THE ICE!..and a order of HOT,GOLDEN SUNSHINE..Thank you…lol..lol..
On an unrelated, or slightly related note, it seems Chicago has had its own big snow drought in the past. From Feb. 12, 1981 to Jan. 1, 1999, Chicago had 0 events of 10″ or greater (almost 18 years)! I’m sure they had plenty of events between 6-10″ but it just goes to show that far snowier climes have experienced similar “droughts” to ours, so maybe there is a silver lining to our lack of snow clouds!
During the Winter around here isn’t it amazing how big the precipitation shield is when it rains, but how small it is when it snows….
This light freezing rain event has caused a mess on the highways. US 25 is closed between Iron Works Pike and Lexington as the iced bridges caused multiple accidents. The Iron Works Bridge is closed due to ice and an injury accident, and I 75 SB is shut at the northern split-forcing traffic onto 64 west. My wife is heading toward Frankfort on 64 to get to her job in Lexington where she was scheduled to start 20 minutes ago.
dang man, i hope it misses you … let’s pray it does, that would be a disaster!!!
My back deck is covered in ice…. Hmmmmm…
Oh man, praying for you. Wouldn’t wish that on anyone. Please be safe.
Maybe we were “spoiled” for years?
I keep hearing this area does not get many big snows, though we have gooten one no less than every three years. The gap is over four times that now. People saying the area does not get them regulary must not have lived here.
I appreciate CB’s perspective, but even with a snowy winter and storms chances all winter- the big ZERO is where we are. How long before mets actually get a fix on what the issue is? As people have mentioned, 360 degrees around us have gotten some big snows during the soon approaching 14 year gap.
BTW, Chicago may have not gotten 10″ events in a while, but they have gotten quite a few 9″ or below during that time frame. EVERYTHING is relative.
Does anyone have data on freak shifts in low tracks….This one is just so close to us and if it could just somehow track 150 miles to the south through TN we would be in one big mess. I am a winter junkie and about to pack my winter weather gear and head north for a couple days. Mother Nature save me the trip and pull this low toward the south…..NEVER HURTS TO ASK…I HATE COLD RAIN!!!!!!
Its still Feb Bubs, keep hope alive! 😉
Oh I forgot, the darth thing. Sowwy. 😀
I think a good part of KY could see severe storm Tuesday night and early Wednesday. NAM is showing great wind shear. I have more thoughts on my blog if anyone is interested.
You don’t want big ice down here do you? I’d love the snow, but if the storm tracks further south wouldn’t we be at risk for ice?
That’s the only reason BFF and I decided against doing a storm chase– ice is involved. And we’d have to get through it to get to the blizz. Not a fun prospect, guess I’m not adventurous enough when it comes to ice. 🙁
Due to the icing reports from myself and other spotters, a Freezing Rain Advisory is about to be posted.
Ummm… is that big clump of green coming north on accuweather’s radar starting to turn pink, or am I seeing things..? And its headed right for E Town.
Someone please tell me it will turn back green….right?
See my comment above. NWS is on top of it now. 🙂
This system would have been doom anyway, since most of KY woulb be getting a worse ice storm than two years ago, due to the heavy moisture. A big shift south would have been historic in a bad way.
Still, north KY needs to watch out, since even a slight shift south means more ice and less rain.
Well, I’m hoping this one passes us by actually, because of the ice thing. The ‘hope’ I speak of is for the near future 😉
Why do they wait til its happening for them to post an advisory? Chris mentioned this yesterday.
I can tell you what the problem is,WERE CURSED.We have made the snow Gods angry at us.We need to offer the Gods a sacrificial lamb.The one they call Darth BubbaG,leader of the dark Forces who coined the phrase ‘SNOW DOME’.Yes,he will do quite nicely..I know,a little dramatic,but hey if it works..lol
Ohhhh…. so NOW they warn us. Absolutely incredible.
I see in CB’s update above, he mentioned the possibility of something tracking north from that stalled front and causing some freezing precip. I missed it earlier, guess I was still asleep, lol.
Freezing rain was a surprise this morning on the trip from Winchester to Lex. Temps dropped about 4 degrees from 6:45 to 7:30, with slick spots here and there.
Are we in for wicked weather/tornado watches with this steep drop in temps that is coming on Wednesday?
February is when I usually get sick of winter and this year is no different. I’m ready for some spring like temps to warm things up. I wouldn’t be suprised if mother nature gives Lexington an icy suprise before March though.
This system needed to stay away with that ice involved.
The ‘hope’ I spoke of is for the near future 😉
In Bourbon county and right now wind is out of the north which is unusual and temp is steady at 30.6. Just wonder if Jet stream is going further south.
Do not succumb to the Dark Side- It makes Darth and the Dome stronger! 😉
This is not the main event. Some light precip was expected ahead of this main storm system. See what a little frozen precip can do, though?
Temps should warm well before the main batch arrives.
I posted a special edition of my journal for comments on that historic ice event of 2009. Even maps can be downloaded to compare that ice storm to the winter storm that’s affecting so many people.
mikjournal.blogspot.com
Here some web cams since we can’t be there:
http://web.live.weatherbug.com/LiveCameras/1/LiveCameras.aspx?no_cookie_zip=60618&no_cookie_stat=CHCG1&no_cookie_world_stat=&zcode=Z5764&camera_group=1&camera_zip=60618&animate=1&enlarge=1&camera_id=WGNTV&lid=CENANI
Here is a cool one
http://www.cubworld.com/category/a_cubworld_cam/
Wow!!!!!!!!
Really?
For the poster that mentioned the “trend” of the past couple of winters here. Perhaps it is indeed a trend…two 20 plus inch winters in a row…..This one being more than the previous. Hard to believe we have had two feet in lexington and no big snows…Although wasn’t one of those events a six inch event? But I guess that still doesn’t count as a big snow.
This last miss has pushed me over the edge. I can only deal with brown grass, grey skies and 33 degree rain so many times. Kentucky winters give you just enough to stay optimistic, but when push comes to shove, they always leave unfulfilled and wanting so much more…kind of like my high school girlfriend…
Bring on Spring…
Forecasts are given for an area as a whole not for each and every individual piece of real estate. Also Kentucky in general is not a state that is prone to receiving large totals of snow fall out of any one storm. In any given area that receives snow at all the higher elevations especially mountain top areas most usually get more than everywhere else. If you want your town to get the most accurate forecasts then you simply need to have a fully dedicated meteorologist to work in your town. So people are usually going to create more worry and more dissapointment for themselves around here by having unrealistic expectations of each big storm to produce big snow totals around here. Moral here is if your a snow lover then be happy with what you have received in snow and if your not then just wait a little bit longer because Spring is right around the corner and just be happy..
Driveway and car covered in a solid layer of ice in Ashland
We couldn’t get that lucky…Or in some peoples words UNLUCKY…I myself would love to see this whole system shift 100-150 miles to the south…SORRY FOR THE WISH fellow bloggers….
this smedwwest system look about asd disorginized as it can get in early stages, dont look likr north south going meet up IMO.
so a full blown blizzard im snot dsure.
All one can do is just sit back and shake your head.I for one will not be watching t.v. or reading this blog all week as this storm unfolds.To painful to watch or read about.
yea and the gfs links cb posted showed the next one going to our southeast, how comical, well almost 🙁
I don’t know but for some reason this one is making me nervous. I live in Oldham County and the slightest shift south is not going to be good for OC…Please, please shift north….ugh
Sorry, but no thanks! :o) Louisville could be in for a serious ice storm if that happened!
I’m in Jefferson County. Feel the same way. We wouldn’t be getting snow, it would be all ice. Bad thing! :o)
This thing goes all the way to Mexico: Marfa Texas near the Rio Grande in W. Texas is predicting a high of 67° today and 18° by Thursday! Talk about a shock to the system!
Think El Paso was at 64 yesterday? Crazy system!
Amazing difference for this Friday and Saturday. Models show below freezing, NWS Jackson calls for highs in upper 40’s. How big a disconnect can there be?
LOL. Moderation, and old age.
I lived in Texas (DFW) 20 yrs. Normal stuff for them. 40 or 50 degree change in temps are pretty usual there when storms are involved.
Couple of words of advice. If the masthead on the side of your house (electrical connection)gets pulled off, you will need to call an electrician to repair it. Your power company will not do this. Additionally, if your electric line is down between your house and the pole, go out and flag a repair crew down. You will get your service repaired much faster that way. Been there, done that, and I feel for you guys.
I think we dated the same girl, LOL!
And next weekend I get to look forward to a big low riding up the east coast? And if the models hold true I can expect it to trend west? Does any of that sound familiar to any of us living in this meteorological anomally known as central Ky? I have to ask myself how many times I’m going to allow myself to be mentally tortured like this.
At least we are missing the ice 🙂 No chance for snow with this system, but plenty for ice if it were to shift south- a lot.
Normally we are the fence for these event. If so, WE would have been in the crippling ice zone. Cold rain good- ice bad.
Any chance of that happening Bubba?
Wondering same…
come on down we’ll BBQ in southern ky…3rd day in a row now of 50+ WHAT A CRAZY TEMP. GRADIENT FROM COVINGTON TO MIDDLESBORO…OVER 20* SPREAD!!!
But for snow the cold always comes after the rain.
WOW…CHECK this local forecast out for SPRINGFIELD MO…talk about everything but the kitchen sink!!!
Tonight…Freezing rain. Rain in the evening…then sleet after midnight. Sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Ice accumulation around two tenths of an inch. Lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
Tuesday…Windy…colder. Sleet and freezing rain in the morning. Snow and isolated thunderstorms. Blowing and drifting snow with visibility one quarter mile or less at times in the afternoon. Precipitation may be heavy at times. Snow and sleet accumulation of 9 to 11 inches. Ice accumulation of two tenths to one quarter of an inch. Around one half of an inch. Highs in the mid 20s. Lowest wind chill readings of around 5 above late in the afternoon. North winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Tuesday Night…Very windy. Colder. Snow likely. Areas of blowing and drifting snow with visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows around 9. Lowest wind chill readings of around 5 below in the late evening and overnight. Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph in the evening decreasing to 35 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 70 percent
Please, PLEASE send that heatwave up here! It’s currently 39* here in London, with cold drizzle. If I squint my eyes, I can almost imagine a flake mixing in from time to time. LoL!
Not seeing it ATM. Seems a very deliberate north east flow.
The dreaded 33/32 degree precipitation law of KY.
Chas, it is barely 40 here, as well. We had the sun peek out for every bit of two minutes. We are, for some reason, on the cold side of things, and that is very unusual for both of us.
Temp has gone from 37 to 39 up to 41 for a couple of minutes, and now sitting at 38, with slight north wind…
Chris, how come we are not seeing the sarmer air? Our temp has actually stayed pretty steady all morning. I had really expected it to get a bit warmer by now.
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