Good Sunday everyone. How about that awesome weather day we had out there Saturday? You know I am a fan of winter… but I have to admit that was a welcome relief from all the cold and snow we have had this winter. It looks like we get another nice day before the next storm moves our way in a few days. This will likely be the catalyst to jump start another very cold and snowy period into the middle of February.

Our “right now” weather looks decent for much of the region. A mix of sun and clouds will be with us on this Sunday with only a small chance for some sprinkles or light shower. The south can reach well into the 50s again as the north stays in the upper 30s and 40s.

A cold front will sag southward on Monday and will usher in colder air with the north in the 30s and the south in the 40s. This will set the stage for a massive winter storm to come rolling northeastward out of the lone star state Monday and into our region by late Tuesday and early Wednesday. This storm is going to impact much of the country and will likely cause a travel nightmare.

Before I break down what this storm means for us… here is a map I put together to show the impact of this bad boy…

Breakdown time…

– This low should track into central Kentucky then into eastern Ohio Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

– The initial burst of precipitation will move in Monday night and early Tuesday. This can start out in frozen form for some.

– The main surge of precipitation will move in from southwest to northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night. A steep temp gradient from north to south will continue to be in place at this time. Readings in the north will be at or below 32 degrees meaning freezing rain will be likely. But for how long?

– As the low moves northeastward toward southern Ohio… it should take temps above freezing across the north changing the ice to plain rain. That said… we really need to watch our northern counties as the potential is there for a significant ice event before temps can spike up some.

– Across the rest of the area… rain will be the main player and some rumbles of thunder will be possible in the far southern counties.

– Once the low goes by to our northeast… cold air will rapidly swing in from west to east Wednesday with rain changing to and ending as snow.

– This storm is likely to bring a crippling ice and snowstorm for areas JUST to our north. Any deviation in the expected track of this low will mean changes in the placement in the rain/snow and ice lines.

The rest of next week will feature much colder air and the potential for another system by the end of the week. Many models try to develop low pressure across the Gulf of Mexico and swing it northward into the mid atlantic states.

The European Model is one of those…

I mentioned the pattern reloading for cold and snow threats and that is exactly what is going on. The signal for this taking place is very strong as evidenced by the GFS Ensembles 850mb temp anomaly map for the second week of February…

That is one wicked cold look for much of the country. Throw in a revamped southern stream loaded with storms and you have the making of more wild and wooly weather for our region.

I will have more updates coming later today so be sure to check back. Have a great Sunday and take care.