Good Saturday afternoon gang. What a gorgeous weather day is in progress across the region with many areas seeing readings into the 50s. Ahhhh… a taste of spring filling the air on this last weekend for January is just what the doctor ordered to cure that case of cabin fever. Well… that and more cowbell! 
I wanted to show you a few model runs for the upcoming storm and how a few of them may be catching on to the big arctic highs to our north and west. That has forced the track of the low on those particular runs farther south…
GFS Ensembles
Canadian Model
That certainly looks interesting for northern and western Kentucky and we will see if that trend holds. Otherwise… go out and enjoy today’s awesome weather. 
Take care.
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Oh my am I first?
😉
ok CB that is wayyyy to vague!
lol
What does this say for eastern Ky.?
rain still
EASTERN KY FLODING RAINS AILS ALL. high in mid 40s.
Rolo-what are you thinking for Frankfort. Praying for you buddy! I don’t know Rolo from Adam but I enjoy reading your posts!!
I still tend to think the ECMWF track through paducah is good, southern and se ky more concerned about strong storms. better snow chance lies with this boundary over the south and delevoping a secondary low for Fri-Sat.
Very nice day in Owensboro! Went for a walk…our 5″ of fluff from Tuesday night is all gone except for a pile here and there. Here’s hoping to a southern track for the early week storm and a big snow for much of KY! Love your blog, Chris!
If the GFS ensembles are close to right, that would end up as a fairly nice snow across Louisville. Given the shift in both the GFS ensembles and the CMC, it suggests the storm will be more to the south than thought.
Give me snow any day over ice and folks around here w/out power for 2 weeks! :o)
I hate myself for lovin’ this blog..!!!
Rolo, I finally found your message about being sick. I hope you are reading this.
Keep your faith my dear friend! God really takes care of us. You are in my heart and prayers. Please let me know if you need anything. It’s not that far from Gunchester to Hazard. All of us are praying that you get better really soon. Hugs to you my dear friend.
Hmmm. Big snow to the north and west, with ice for central Ky. WHY would that not surprise some? 😉 🙁 😉
We are all hooked on it.
I have to have a tumor removed on Feb. 7th. While I’m recuperating, I’ll still be thinking of you and praying.
I’d rather have rain than ice any day.
If I didn’t have all these people on the blog backing up what I think, I’d think I was nuts. Big snow North,south,east and west. But not here. Hard to deny the facts.
Rolo! I would love to be your FB friend. Is there a way to friend you without giving our last names? Are you a friend of Chris fb page?
The GFS ensembles Chris posted and the Canadian look like Dec 2004–Paducah, Louisville, etc 10-20 inches of snow. Ice Central KY, rain Eastern KY
Char, where did you find the post about rolo being sick ? I have read about him not being well but didn’t know where to look to find out about him. I love reading his silly things he writes on here. Thank you and god bless
Thanks CB for the update! I hate seeing all the predictions of rain for SE Ky 🙁
I hope this one isn’t our last chance for a big snow.
Well, you can bet your dern britches that we here in Nelson Co/Bardstown area will be the ones to see the ice, and LOU-points N. will get all the sno-luv…it doesn’t know how to do anything here except either snow 2″ or less, or produce a ridiculously terrible ice storm….GRRRR!!! 🙁
I will take rain over snow any day. This weather feels great today. I wish it would last till spring.
seen this scenario before i think all of kentucky should be ok with mainly rain…this low is very strong and this time instead of being too far northwest for the good snow we will be too far southeast, lifes a beech aint it?! this has lakes cutter written all over it. if you follow these storms enought you will notice there are only certain paths/tracks the low takes this track should put anyone south of i70 in the mainly rain category.
18z nam backs chris up despite my comment above. however sounding still shows a severe threat ahead of the low track which in the case of that run is BWG and points east.
Ok all you south east folks.We need to get on the bandwagon and pull this artic blast farther south and east.Whos with me,Pullllllllllllllllllll,Pulllllllllllllllll
No, the 2004 setup was very different from what the current GFS ensembles show. A full examination of the GFS ensembles still shows this system to be very much a rain system. Is a trend emerging? Not sure…again…it will be tomorrow night before some forecast convergence takes place.
Tommy, i dont think its the case. I think this storm will be decent for our area. But we cant get to into the models or our hopes will be shattered 😉
i never have found it but i putting two and two together and coming up with the fact that Rolo is having some health issues. Love and prayers to you big boy! I dont know if you are a big boy or not but in my mind you are!
Wait until all the models come into near agreement. I do like the trends. But still way to early. I like cold rain becoming mix with sleet and then snow minor accumulation in lou.
Folks, I am “feeling” ice. Still, my interpenetration of information has a high chance of being wrong 🙂
Ironic if it happens, since would it not be two years to the day for the previous event?
The bright side is CB has not hinted at a threat mode yet, nor for ice 🙂
CB not saying and me feeling it… I will pick the CB 100% of the time.
This should not be a great lake cutter storm the artic high is real strong will shove the low south how far thats anybody’s guess. Between Tennesse and central Indiana according to models but by this time tomorrow the models should have a better handle.
I SAY GIVE ME SNOW!!!! OR GIVE ME TODAYS WEATHER….SUNSHINE AND 61* today in Barbourville…
Joy & Kandy…it’s on the Thurs. “A lot of snow left in the tank” post @ 10:46am…
To rolo, my friend. May God be with you & hear all of our prayers for you @ this time. We love ya! 🙂
Since there are 2 of us I will be the above lol.I know Tim it was that way here too.It was nice.
Ok, so this will be rain… so, NEXT.
Anything good beyond this storm anyone brave enough to mention? 😉
To funny. Got to see this. http://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/Church_asks_for_people_to_stop_praying_for_snow_114769409.html
So what would have to happen to give EKY snow this week and is it completely off the table? Also can anyone see anything winterish coming soon that could bring lots of snow and tracking opportunitys….I’m a glutton for punishment lol!!
Actually CB has hinted at ICE several times!
Very anxious over here, of course. Started tracking this storm and talking about it on our updates about seven days ago. Will be an extremely close call for rain vs ice here. If this thing tracks further south and east then our area will have a near historic snow event – for some counties. It will be a long few days of forecasting.
I still think along and north of the OH River is about to get hammered. Like, DEEP snow and strong wind. Not quite blizzard maybe, but close.
I mentioned this earlier, this next storm will have the artic air with it and the moisture and surely when the low passes by more artic air comes in. Accuweather calling for one inch of rain Tuesday night with a low of 30. so how can it rain at 30. I smell snow for CKY and allot of it.
As more models come in and they continue to trend south. I can agree with you on that. but tomorrow is a big day and as is Monday. we shall see. Still a lot of time for the models to reveal the storm at it’s greatest potential
I know CB is using the ensembles of the GFS, but the trend I’m noticing on the plain GFS is a ‘warming’. Therefore, while the GFS has been crying wolf with a possible widespread ice event, it appears to me at this time that a narrow area (perhaps 25-30 miles wide from north to south)could see a significant ice event. Hopefully, the GFS will continue to ‘warm up’ over the next few runs as the other models have already done or else it could very well be a historic ice event for areas just to our north and northeast.
A question for the weather experts around here: The depth and persistence of the cold air – is that something which is hard for models to deal with? Which model seems to handle this best?
Char…did I see you post that you too are having surgery? I will pray for you also…and Rolo.
WoW! ckeck out the 120hr GFS total snowfall for Indy and OH. Boy if we could move that South.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays-10to1.php3?STATIONID=ILN
This is my first time on this website. I live in Floyd County, near Prestonsburg, in eastern Kentucky. Can’t make heads or tails of the weather maps above. So what does it look as if eastern Kentucky will be getting this week, Monday – Friday?
No more of this! I want school to get over with so we can go to the pool more than once before we have to go BACK to school.
That being said…I love this blog. I always feel prepared to deal with whatever Mother Nature throws at us.
We have to wait..all signs point to rain right now..but right now is partially meaningless so far from the storm. Welcome to CB’s blog. Take your shoes off. Set a spell.
Well, thus far, everyone is saying it’s going to be lovely for everyone north of the river. So typical. Why can’t we here in NC KY (Bardstown area) ever get anything besides the usul nothing and/or ice storm??? Next time they want to transfer my hubby to a more warmer Southern or SW state, I won’t try to talk him out of it. What would be the difference,anyway? lol!
Sorry, meant in the context of a threat.
I guess something is getting lost in translation withhow the models are being read. The maps Chris has noted suggest the track of the storm is shifting to the south due to cold arctic air to the northwest. On the other hand, the Louisville NWS mentions tonight that the models continue to shift the track north. Based on what Chris has posted, there seems to be a conflict.
This storm will start out as rain, and have a typical changeover to snow when its to late. I know, because I have lived in ky for 15 years. We dont need models to tell us the weather 😉 hahah
Live Morehead/Rowan County right on the edge of Lewis (Which borders the Ohio)..from the maps, it would appear we would be in for some either ice accumulations or if the storm tracks South very heavy snow?? IS that the gest of it?
I’ll have an order of the light blue, please! 😉
So WXman you gonna ‘NAIL’ this one? Only 4 days out,whats your prediction? Maybe you’ll wait tuesday night before you ‘nail’ this one?..LOL..
Here is another mets forecast just for grins:
http://wlkyweather.wordpress.com/2011/01/29/winter-storm-on-track-a-north-track/#more-2242
So is SE KY pretty much out of the snow talk or can I still hold some hope?
Oh well,I’m not going to worry myself with this storm, till Chris gives the updates and being this far out, as well know ANYTHING can happen..Thanks E-townky for the map…its so vastly different than Chris’ though..Hmm Interesting and here we go AGAIN…haha..
ummm is it suppose to “do” anything tonight? Not mentioned in any forcast, but the radar says otherwise. Just wondering 🙂
Bad run of the lastest GFS ensemble.Looks like rain again for the whole state.Thats why i agree with someone earlier who said these models are for entertainment only.Junk science.
That guys way north with ice and snow.
Bring on the heavy rain!
Its feels like a minor form of cruelty to think of all that water not forming snow right on top of us. We need to use our minds to move this stuff down here. I used to listen to Art Bell some time back. he had some man on their who believed that ‘collective thought’ could be harnessed to move or ‘heard clouds’. So, who will join me? Who will become a cloud herder with me? 🙂
wow..sorry about the typos – their=there and heard = herd ( geesh I need sleep or ..snow!)
Ohh, CB, please don’t let it be ice! There is no other weather form that in my opinion is so dangerous or weighs on the soul more like an ice storm. 😛 Rain- ok, even a mix would be tolerable, but send that accumulating ice up north! Char and Rolo, you are in my prayers!! Blessings and amazing recoveries to you both! 🙂
I’m afraid he is too!
My parents live in Marion, Indiana, which is solidly in the 14-16 inch snow range for this storm, and just miles away from the 16-18 inch range. I wish I could drive up there tomorrow and spend the week with them. I think that’s what I’d need to do to see the “big” snow this winter, since we in central Kentucky can’t seem to get more than around three inches.
Thanks for posting this GFS link. I’ll at least call my folks tomorrow and give them advance warning of what they might be facing this week.
Oh, and Rolo, I just want you to know I’ve been praying for you this week. Keep us posted on how your appointment goes on Monday.
And thanks so much Christ for all the time you put in to this blog, and thank your family too, from us, for their sacrifice as well, as I’m sure keeping up the blog often takes you away from them. I suspect I’m not the only one on here, who gets her blog fix first thing in the morning, and the last thing before bed, and numerous times in between. Winter is my favorite season, and it just wouldn’t be the same without the updates about snow chances and snow storms that you provide. Thanks a million, Chris!
Thank you for telling them. I just now came back online.
My brother breaks it down for you on my website. Hahah check it out.we updated. Also. I think ice is a good bet, atm. Anytime ice is thrown in it always happens it seems
Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. Let’s all join together in prayer for our good friend Rolo. I pray for a speedy healing and recovery for my friend Rolo. I love you Rolo. Keep the faith!
Today is what the old timers call the January thaw. It usually happens earlier in the month. It was beautiful today, but I know it won’t last. Waiting to see what comes next!
Yeah, its funny how much mets can differ.
I just wanted to liven it up in here a bit, LOL. 😉
I want an update please! 😀 😀
Well, he missed on the last storm, so there is still plenty of hope.
All I know is, I was going through my desk drawers today and came across a random (completely random!) photo of the 98′ snow here in Lexington. I’ll be honest… I got a little teary eyed thinking back to how awesome that experience was. I just wish we could have some of that again! It’s not like we’re asking for 4 feet… just 9 or 10 inches and I’d be content :/
I don’t know about everyone else, but I really think this storm is going to go way north of ALL of KY with the ice. I am really thinking we will be much more likely to see heavy rain and thunderstorms even with this system, rather than ice, which by the way is fine with me. If we aren’t going to get snow, let it RAIN.
I think anywhere about 50mi north of I-70 will get buried, and the ICE line will run the I-70 corridor. Wilmington, OH south, plain old rain. Not sure being this far out, and I think most of the models are unreliable with this type of system, but I just do not see that cold air getting in here fast enough. Temps shot up today with the southern breeze and sunlight, tomorrow will be even warmer. I do not see us cooling our Hi temps off enough to get a real threat of any kind of heavy ice. If we can’t have the big snow, bring on SUN and 70!!!
Feel free to agree or disagree, but I really think I am not too far off base with this one…
All hail Chris, Lord of the BLOG! LOL I did a double take when reading that. Now thats a great typo!
If ice or a big snow event were even a chance ATM, CB would already be hinting at threats. Not even said anything that rhymes with threat…. yet.
yup rain snd storms this go around. some may evem be strong to severe for the south and southeast.
So, I guess SE KY seeing a good snow out of this storm is out of the question? 🙁
The bad thing is I did read my post over to proofread it before I clicked submit. I just didn’t notice that typo until after I had already posted it. Sorry!
Wet rhymes with threat… 😉
And until otherwise said, or proven, we are still looking at this system being predominately rain.
Cardosi has a pretty good track record and rarely pulls the hype card. I actually think his rain /ice line is not North enough..Folks this is a RAIN maker for KY..what a storm like this will do for us is refuel more cold air to aid in future storms where we have a better shot for Snow
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