Good Saturday to one and all and thanks so much for all you do for the blog. We are going to be seeing a wicked temperature gradient setting up shop this weekend as we get a shot of nice. That shot of nice may be followed by some ice for some into the first part of next week.
A clipper will be working across the Ohio Valley today and bring a mix of sun and clouds to the area. While the north can see a sprinkle or flurry… most of the action will stay away from us this time. Winds will pick up and temps will soar across the south and west where high temps into the 50s. The north will stay in the high 30s to low 40s.
Check out the impressive temp gradient forecast for today…
Follow along with today’s real time temps here…
Current Temps
Sunday may feature a greater temp swing where the north struggles to 40 as the Tennessee border counties tickle 60.
A massive winter storm is going to develop early next week across the southern plains and ride northeastward toward the state by Tuesday into Wednesday. The storm will have a significant impact from Texas all the way to Maine. This bad boy moves in with one arctic high pressure anchored across the great lakes and new england with another diving in behind the storm. Low level cold air is going to be a player with this storm.
Many of the computer models bring this low right on top of us. With the low level cold air around… the threat for freezing rain will be possible for the northern half of the region. You can see this quite well on the latest run of the GFS…
That model has been fairly consistent in showing the ice potential. The possible scenarios go like this…
– Low pressure tracks right into the state with freezing rain in the north and rain in the south with everyone seeing the precipitation ending as snow.
– The low really winds up and tracks deeper into the Ohio Valley with a brief shot of ice in the north before mostly rain falls. That too would end as a touch of snow.
– The other possible setup would be for the arctic high to the north to flex it’s muscle and force the storm track farther south giving us a better chance for snow instead.
As of now… scenario number one seems the most viable. As usual… that is subject to change as we are still 4 days away. We will continue to fine tune the forecast for this storm through the weekend and have more updates so check back.
Have a great Saturday and take care.
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Please say it ain’t so Chris!! I’m not liking the ice for the first of next week. Thank goodnes it’s four days away! I’d rather see rain!!
I hope our small town of Versailles treated you well good today!
Chris, you cant throw that word around 😉 you know people freak when they hear I-c-e hahahahahah
I’ll book my hotel room now; and the moving truck for the week after next!
ICE?! My basement still isn’t fixed from when it flooded last time! I don’t think Nicholasville is to get it real bad according to the models. If it goes down like the GFS says, my heart goes out to northern counties.
Forecasts for freezing rain never waver and seem to always be correct. I am most unhappy. 🙁
If the models are 4 days out and say ice and freezing rain they don’t change. Only if they are saying snow will they correct themselves.
This system currently seems to have a similar set-up of 2003. That system iced folks from the KY river on up. This seems to be more I64 on up for the main stuff.
Our hope is warmer air being more than just the aloft type.
All rain for all of Kentucky…ICE and SNOW will be farther to out North…
Oh,Chris, not ice….I really hope senario #2 is the one that gels….I really do NOT wish for ice for anyone.
But, I am going to take your advice and enjoy the nice while it is here today. Everyone have a GREAT Saturday. GO BIG BLUE!!!
This is the winter gift that keeps on giving. Please no ice for anyone! Everyone enjoy this weekend while it’s here.
Thanks for the update Chris. You are awesome!
Mercy, Chris. I sure hate the prospect of freezing rain and ice for anybody. From other models I have seen (as you say, still a bit early yet), it does NOT look good for Northern KY/Southwest IN/Louisville. It really doesn’t look good for Lexington metro, either. Guys, get your yack trackers and salt bags. Afraid we are going to need them. At this rate, many schools will be in session for a good part of the summer if this weather doesn’t break soon.
wow gfs hits the nky with ice bigtime, total qfp through the roof
Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!! No ice! Please!
Although if ice is predicted for N.TX, you can be sure its coming.. lived there for 20 yrs,the ice always comes in Feb/March…at least once a year. Ugh. 🙁
COme on arctic high…. PUSH!!
Great! Fresh memories from the last good icing LOU got…..lots of folks with no power for 2 weeks. Hub working in Dayton of course and me with 3 yr old. Snow please snow….NOT ice!!! :o) good thing I’m one of those independent, self reliant types. LOL
LMAO. My daughter in Tx says its gonna be 74 degrees in Dallas today…
That oughtta make some of you envious, LOL.
My farm is a muddy mess now but I’ll take more cold rain over ice. I’ll be spending time this weekend getting ready for it. Sigh.
Chris can you put in for a change, having it snow instead of ice storm 🙂
Generator – Check
Extra Gasoline – Check
Flashlights – Check
Batteries – Check
Monopoly – Check
My wife is that way too. AKA boss of the house 😉
Except for possibly NKY, I don’t see KY getting any ice out of this. This is a typical winter big storm that will deposit its mixed fruit of snow and ice closer to central IN and leave most of KY with rain in the 40s.
If I’m wrong and KY gets more ice and snow, this will truly be one of the more memorable winters we’ve had in a very long time.
I did not notice when I made my post that you had pretty much said the identical thing. So it’s not just me that gets irritated with the models and central Ky weather in general.
Mine is AKA “the warden” I get out for work release every so often. 😉
My brother in law lives in McKinney and it seems they more big snow than us despite the big temp swings.
and it seems they get more big snow
My brain has trouble keeping up sometimes 🙂
first unless ur grant count area north wise u aint going see nomajior ivce if they even see it up on thre borger areas.
2nd what a DAY its going to be 50s and sun, alreadsy 45 here at the ROLO PLANTATION. think ill go spray off vehicle, sweep it out sum, go taker care of granny and stay awhile, get back home bet some races and watch UK. now that sum good stuff.
u can get my racing picks at my facebook page. now lets see how good u are at finding it.lol
my clay county queen dont tell them, if they are smart enough as i think they will find it. go find our Chris BAILEY facebook page.
Insurance claims phone number-check
Clean out the fridge-check
Call the electrician-check
Bourbon-check
what a great day we have in store, this will make people not want anymore snow..hahah
My addition was going to be Adult Beverages. I like the way you think.
Not that I don’t want snow,I want a big snow, 8+ inches in my book would be nice and would put us solid in the top 10 for total snowfall for central KY. As has been mentioned though it’s amazing how many small measurable snows it’s taken to get where we are. I’d like to see the comparison against the top 10 in terms of total snowfall for each individual event.
Not on shore yet. Models are for entertainment purposes now.
Rolo, days like this are like medicine for the soul. Go out and enjoy this and then, take these same memories and feelings with you when you go in on Monday for your treatment. You are in my thoughts and prayers, Rolo. Enjoy this day that our Lord had! It sounds as though you have got some great plans for it! 🙂 Everyone, enjoy today – the sun and the warmth! Chris, hope that you get rested up, too, during this little break!
I disagree. If the models were useless, why would we waste tax dollars running them? They’ve been doing a good job, especially GFS, from 5 days out and you can bank on this storm causing a MESS for a lot of folks. MO, IL, and IN are going to get hammered. KY is dangerously close to an ice storm but hopefully the NAM will be correct and more of this will be rain as the low goes north of Louisville.
Maybe it “iced” over, lol.
SUNSHINE !!! 55* !!!! at 11:30 am on a late january morning…B) I’ll take it and run with it today…!!!
Tax dollars are wasted every day.
SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO TRUE
As I said earlier this morning. All rain for all of Kentucky. Everyone can quit worrying!!! I HATE COLD RAINS…
What about the next one??
Oh yee of little faith you might be right but I would seriously suggest you side with a little caution at this storm especially from Louisville north.
Rain,rain rain.After this week the warming trend starts.Winter will be just about offically over.The groundhog will see his shadow.Love will be in the air.Time to plant some peas.On a scale of 1 to 10 would have to rate this winter a 2..Major disappointment.
Only 50 here in Lawrenceburg…so sad..LOL
Looks like my area in central Indiana is going to get hit bigtime whether it’s ice or snow! Our school hasn’t had a single snow day yet, even with all the snow we have had!! Hoping we finally get enough up here to get out!!
After the last southern storm, the GFS was not a winner. I’m leaning with the Canadian model as it proved a ‘little’ more reliable. It’s been consistently suggesting a rain event for the region. Closest ice would be near Indy, maybe Cincy. And then some wraparound accumulation of snow.
Good job bt the GFS my donkey butt.Just about every storm has started out with ky within the bulls eye range only to see it drift south and go out in the ocean or ride the east coast.Like the gentleman said “Models are for entertainment purposes only”. and ky is NOT dangerously close to an ice storm.You can bank on it cause the GFS is junk.
So WXman,you gonna ‘nail’ this one?Were only 4 days out,whats your prediction?
Or will it be tuesday night before you decide.LOL
So WXman you gonna ‘NAIL’ this one? Only 4 days out,whats your prediction? Maybe you’ll wait tuesday night before you ‘nail’ this one?..LOL..
been moderated,maybe post will show up 10 times so WXman will see it an make his prediction?,,,,Before tuesday night..Bahhhhahhahahahah
Well according to my weatherbug we just hit 60 in Pikeville sunny and beautiful but very windy.
Warming trend starts????? Oh ok you must be in Florida somewhere my bad. Winter a 2??? That’s strange last time I checked we pretty much were above average in snowfall this winter, groundhog will not see his shadow there to much snow in Pennsylvania and it will be snowing on Groundhog Day so therefore no shadow. NEXT!!! Your wrong on all 3 points. We live in the Ohio Valley not the Great Lakes not the Midwest not the Rockies nor the East Coast. Were not suppose to be plastered with snow if it happens its a bonus if not its normal. Just for the record Denver CO has had there least snowiest season since record books were kept 122 yrs. So far for there season 12.1 inches of snow most of KY has already seen that much snow and then some for the season. I know Louisville has seen almost 16 inches of snow for the season and more than likely will end up with 20+ for the season. But all the naysayers are all upset because we have not got a foot of snow statewide at one time. Its extremely rare for that to happen in the first place and winter is far from being over some of our best snows happen in February. Lots of winter left to go.
LOL. one day of warm temps and people are convinced winter is over? Its JANUARY people!
😀 <--------laughing .
riddlesweather.com check it out( we forecast for Indiana starting feb. 1st), also not always a good thing to be in the sweet spot this early 😉
i updated riddlesweather.com for anyone interested. Also, where is everyone! The blog is DEAD. you wouldnt think we had any potential at a storm coming with the way it is lol
Not in the DFW area where I lived for 20 yrs. Hardly ever a snow. Big ice storms though, especially in Feb. ..and yes, big temp swings in TX. Saying in TX– “if you don’t like the weather, wait a minute…”
It can be an ice storm and 25 degrees one day and 75 the next. TX is really weird. The summers stink though– to me at least, I hate hot summers. 100+ heat for weeks on end, YUCK.
That’s because those of us in Eastern Kentucky know we are only going to get rain.
I’m afraid Darth BubbaG has won me over to the dark side.
Sorry Lincoln, yet another ‘big snow’ craps out for Louisville. More rain is coming so I’m off to unplug the gutters. It so warm, I’m almost tempted to mow the lawn. No, I have no faith in the snow and ice fairies for this next event.
Yep, still here and still excited at the prospect of any big weather event, even though I hate rain, and loathe ice– I love weather. Just had to take advantage of the sunshine and take the kids over to funtopia for the afternoon. Beautiful out there! (and YES I STILL WANT SNOW AND LOTS OF IT) 🙂
Go to Freeman Lake! Or take a hike in that little wetllands park near the Burger King.
We stopped in to eat– Freeman lake trails after lunch! 🙂
Great depiction of the snowdome from the last event.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=63206&source=0
PLUS..temps a BUST on the high side today. 54 and climbing in Lawrenceburg. Warmest day since 31 December.
I know! I always get my hopes up and then there is a shift! Thanks for the website.
YES! Enjoy…don’t forget to find and hike the wetland trails near Burger King.
NEW POST!!
Where is that?
I raised my two kids in E-Town from ages 0 – 5. Beautiful memories. We found this ‘secret park’ – a wetlands area that nobody really seemed to know about. It parallels North Main and is on the other side of the railroad tracks. The road which you turn onto to go to Brger King by i-65 ..if you keep going down that road, there was a building which housed a union meeting house ( welders or boilermakers I think.) park in their small lot. The park with beautiful trails is across..or it used to be!
and you must be living in la la land.Apparently you must of moved here in the last couple of years from cali,and it use to be ‘NOT” so extremely rare for a foot of snow.So on a scale of 1 to 10 i will have to go down a notch and say a 1..Major,Major disappointment.Have fun playing in the rain next week.
Cold rain is fine rather than ice. Just a few days ago the thought was the outlook for the coming system would be mainly snow. Seems the models are at least for the short term, understating temps:
1 Last weeks event was mainly rain rather than snow.
2 Our recent clipper was supposed to be snow, but mainly rain.
3 Temps today are warmer than outlooked.
Perhaps this trends of temperature misses will happen with the next event?
Hello, mate! I’m completely accede to this way of assessment and all of joined.