Good Saturday and welcome to a great weekend of weather. Gorgeous early fall weather rolls on, but I’m watching changes taking shape as we head into next week. These changes include a cold front and the potential for some tropical moisture to get involved in the pattern.

Until we get to those changes, the pattern is great but boring. It’s so nice, I’m not even going to touch on it all.

Let’s get this Saturday party started with a look at the tropics. We are likely to see a system develop in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days and this may very well work toward Texas and Louisiana. Here’s a look at the active systems of interest to the National Hurricane Center…

Here’s a closer look at the system gathering steam as it moves into the GOM…

That system likely heads toward Louisiana and Texas, but what happens after that is still to be determined. At the same time, a cold front works in here with an increase in showers and storms by Wednesday and Thursday. Something else may be trying to form along the southeast coast around the same time…

That’s a pretty convoluted setup and that leads to a low confidence look for an exact evolution, but that’s a pretty active look.

What happens there will, obviously, have a big impact on how the pattern evolves for the second half of September. The control run of the EURO Ensembles has been giving a deepening trough look for a while now…

I will say one thing, this is likely to be a fall where some big cutoff lows fire up some deep storm systems. If we can get one of those later in November, then hmmm.

Have a great start to the weekend and take care.