Good Monday to one and all. Rounds of showers and storms are kicking off the week as we get set for a chili… Make that Chilly… Brand of air to take control of the pattern. The heavy rains may cause problems just ahead of the blast of late October temps.

Showers and storms are showing up out there today and they are coming from south to north or southeast to northwest. It’s not raining across the entire region at the same time, but locally heavy downpours will be a good bet. Here are your Monday rain and storm tracking radars…

Here’s a breakdown on how things progress after today:

  • Scattered showers and storms will be noted on Tuesday with a late day line of showers and storms moving in from the west.
  • That line of storms is along and ahead of the front pushing in from the west.
  • As the front moves across the area Wednesday, low pressure develops along the boundary and brings heavy rain and gusty winds to the region.
  • The look of this is almost that of a wintertime system with the low bringing in chilly air behind it.
  • Rainfall amounts through Thursday morning should average 1″-3″ for most of the region with locally higher amounts. A few 4″+ amounts may show up and bring along the threat for high water issues.
  • The best chance of any high water is likely across central and northern Kentucky.
  • Wednesday afternoon is chilly with temps in the 50s behind the low.
  • Temps for Thursday and Friday are in the 60s for highs as a drying sky takes control. When overnight skies clear, readings are deep into the 40s and may flirt with a few upper 30s.

As far as the models go, the Canadian is the slowest with the upcoming system and now lingers some rain through Thursday…

 

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Here are the rain numbers from that run…

The GFS continues to be the fastest in getting this system through here…

That’s likely too fast and this plays into the progressive bias of the GFS. Still, the model spits out some hefty rain totals..

With such chilly numbers coming in behind our departing storm, this…

Will be upgraded to this…

Behind all this likely comes another trough digging into the region from the northwest over the weekend and early next week. The Control Run of the EURO Ensembles has been money of late with these troughs and is showing this next one well…

The GFS is also finding this dip and following it up with another one next week…

That would bring one front through here with a gusty band of Saturday showers and the potential for the next front a few days later…

All of this continues to show a below normal temp look that may carry us into early October.

I will throw you another update very late today. Make it a great Monday and take care.