Midnight Update

Good midnight to one and all. A big thanks for all the reports… please keep them coming as you are the eyes and ears for the weather community across the state. Here is the map of the updated warnings and advisories…



Kudos to our man MJ at the NWS in louisville for all the fine updates through the evening. As usual… he was all over the changes and had a great opening line to his late evening update…

VERY COMPLICATED AND COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUSTED FORECAST IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT
ACCORDING TO OUR FORECAST.

Truer words have never been spoken.   Keep posting your weather conditions and I will have more updates ahead. Take care.

10:30pm Update

Winter Storm Warning now out for much of central and southern Kentucky. This includes the Lexington metro… Bowling Green… Richmond… London… E-town and Williamsburg.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been extended into the Louisville metro and into parts of northern Kentucky. I will post a map of the latest warnings in just a bit.

Previous Update

Good evening everyone. This is a heck of a convoluted storm rolling into the region right now. The westward trend we have argued for days is indeed taking place as snow is falling well into the western part of the state. We are seeing the dual low scenario playing out with one low tracking into east Tennessee as the main low works up the east coast.

This low heading into east Tennessee is no slouch and is working with a very good setup in the upper levels to produce a wide swatch of rain and snow. As this low deepens… we will continue to see dynamic cooling switch the rain over to snow from southwest to northeast. The cooling process is being aided by some slightly drier and colder air advecting in from the north.

A couple of thoughts…

– This is a very impressive storm in the mid and upper levels. This suggests to me we will see bands of moderate to very heavy snow developing. These bands can lay down fairly narrow ribbons of heavy snows in a short amount of time.

– Pinpointing where these bands will be setting up is a VERY difficult thing to do until we can follow them on radar.

– Temps will drop to 32 from west to east tonight resulting in a heavy, wet snow. Areas that get in on 5″ or more can have some tree and power problems.

– Given the latest radar trends and available data… I have mad some extensive changes to the snow map for parts of central and western Kentucky. While every area may not get into the forecast range… there is an increased potential for many to do so.

Here ya go…



While that is the last call map… I am going to be nowcasting this storm and updating the snow forecast as it is bound to have more surprises up it’s sleeve this evening and overnight. With the amount of dynamics I am seeing… it is entirely possible for some small areas to exceed my totals.

There are two mitigating factors coming into play… when the change to snow occurs at your house and a wet ground. Both of those may act to cut down on the full potential of this storm.

Here are some tracking toys for you to follow along with this storm…



Current Temps


Paducah


E-Town


Bowling Green


Louisville





Lexington
Lexington, Kentucky - Lexington Webcam

I will add updated thoughts to this blog post as needed. Right now… it is your turn to tell us what’s going on where you live. You guys are the backbone of the blog.

Take care.