Good Evening everyone. We will have several updates on this winter storm throughout the evening as we go into nowcasting mode. In looking at radar returns and the latest RUC and NAM… I am growing more concerned parts of western and central Kentucky may get in on some heavy snow late this evening and overnight before working eastward.
This REALLY needs to be watched over the next few hours as the dynamic cooling with this storm should be kicking in this evening from southwest to northeast. This is where some ground truth reports will be more needed than ever as that will help us better determine how quickly the change to snow is happening.
All that said… here is a look at the warnings and advisories…
I am not crazy about that few of counties being in a Warning… but oh well.
The latest snow probabilities forecast map from the HPC is rather bullish…
The new run of the NAM is picking up on this batch of heavy precip in western Ky and west Tn and switching it to heavy snow and laying down a heck of a lot of areas farther west…
Take that with a grain of salt… but the radar trends do suggest heavy snow farther west later this evening and tonight.
I will have another update in a few hours and will put out a final call at that time. Until then… I am playing weather dude on tv.
Take care.
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42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
First?
Thanks!
first? Thanks Chris!
Would love for that NAM to come true for Lexington!
Woohoo!
Chris, you ROCK!!!!
Funny how ‘others’ poo-poo’d the idea of us in central ky getting some snow, LOL.
YOU are my personal weatherman from now on. (I’m sure that makes you feel proud, lol)
FIrst!—-SO NOT first. LOL
No precip on the ground in Owensboro yet, but by looking at the radar returns, it wont be long 🙂
I’ve been consistent with my analysis and have barely tweaked the numbers for the following locations:
Pikeville 4-8″
Middlesborough 3-6″
Jackson 2-5″
Hazard 3-6″
Lexington 1-3″
Still, a tricky forecast as the western flank of this system has shown signs of moving more northward than eastward. In addition, the transition from rain to snow will be critical along with surface temps. Keep safe. This is my ‘final call’. I’m now in nowcast mode.
I agree! How great would it be to see 5 or 6 inches :O) Definitely not that 12 inches we’ve been praying for since ’98… but I would SO take it!
oh my Clay’s Ferry friends…… one can only hope huh? that would be awesome!
What a great winter season.
Not even 2/3 of the way through winter and Lexington is approaching a Top 10 winter snowfall total (Dec-Feb)
#10 is 26.6 inches from 1993-1994..we are at 21.9
Got a ways to go to make a Top 10 Season (Jul-Jun) but I am sure it will happen this time around.
Let’s go for 40 inches plus
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/lexington_cli_pdf/top_ten_snowiest_and_least_snowy_seasons.pdf
So do SE KY totals go down Chris?
More northward than eastward would be better (snowfall totals) for CKY correct?
Starting to believe central ky to get heaviest totals.
Yes, especially if banding develops.
Lincoln how do your snow totals compare to CB? when are you going to update your page
I did not think I would ever see CB unsure with a system this late in the game. This system could be CB’s Moby Dick 😉 In his defense, most mets are unsure with all systems 😉
Well, at least the drama factor has been fun for most bloggers, but now it is go-time.
What a cuckoo winter system!
So, based on this more northward/westward trend, how are we looking for the I-75 corridor between Richmond and Lexington? I have to work tomorrow, and REALLY don’t want to drive in a ridiculous amount of snow.
BubbaG,
You and I just might get lucky with this one… Our dew points and humidity are great, so now we need the moisture and that wonderful phenomenon ‘dynamic cooling’…!
<----Likes CB's latest Tweet
That might be coming sooner then you think… Like MJ hinted at, FEB. 1~3 looks very ominous for KY…
To be continued….
How long will it be before we see rain and how long will it take to turn over to snow in the Somerset area?
About what time frame should we look for the cooling effect?
I am beginning to think that this may be true. Bands……
I guess something is getting lost in the translation with me. When I hear central Kentucky, I think of Louisville since it’s located in the center portion of the state. I’m kind of unsure what the definitions for particular regions mean.
I would like to request that Chris divides the state up into zones or regions that are identifiable. If there was a map which said which counties fall into certain zones, then it might make it easier for us to now in the early stages what regions look good.
It’s just a thought.
Just wanted to say, you’re doing a great job young man..!
NWS Chat reports from Paducah and Murray State Area:
Here ya go Chris
(5:56:38 PM) f.y.i…the latest SREF and HRR guidance is showing the surface temperature gradient starting to tighten under the deformation zone aloft. This is in line with observations and surface reports. We are getting some reports of rain/snow/sleet mix in paducah…calvert city and cadiz KY at this time. Should amounts increase faster than expected between 6-9 pm…some adjustment may be needed for the northern limit of the advisory and snow amount along the TN/KY border. Stay tuned8-)
(5:58:07 PM)
(6:01:03 PM) Southwest Calloway County – public reports “sleeting hard”
(6:01:48 PM) : Sleet also reported in northern Graves County as of 450 pm
(6:02:00 PM) : Yeaup, sleeting here on the West side of Murray
Ok, this is not looking good folks. Banding setting up, temps dropping, dynamic cooling will likely start here soon. This could end up being worse than a TON of people are thinking it will be for cky.
Thanks Chris! Been watching this all day! Miss you being on Lexington Weather! Thank you for doing this for us KY folks!
Central Kentucky is widely considered the Lexington/Richmond/Rockcastle County area, at least from all the forecasts that I have watched.
You still thinking 5-8″ for CKY…?
Someone in KY will get nailed by this storm 12in plus! There will be a BAND playing the old school snow song tonight!
FUN for someone 🙂
Brought home a 2nd briefcase full of work to work from home just in case.
BRING IT!
That may be bumped up if snow starts soon, which, I think it will. May have to move that area up too.
I’m upset with my fellow eastern Kentuckians. Central KY is representing their area in way more abundance than us.
Let’s get in on this wishcasting tug-o-war and yank them down in the mud!
(Disclaimer: Comment was all in good fun.)
chris its time u admitt along with alot of other mets including me 2 days ago that u all blew this forcast.
i know u said it could still move further west but fact is it pushing 50 still and the west and s and east storm are not coming gyogther.
now yea lex get 5 plus inches im happy cause i luv all my snow lovers. but for a long time there was no mention of a LONG PROLOMGED PERIOD OF RAIN. and for se and e that look to be most of what precip ill be except for maybe a hour or 2.
Hoping for higher amounts in the Somerset area.
Good thought!! Sometimes Corbin is referred to as SE KY and other times its not! It gets confusing!
What about SE KY tornadolarkin?
I am happy yea SE KY going get 1-2 tops between 5-8 in morn, why am i happy cause if anybody gets a decent snow its going be VINNY ND BUBBA my to bestest friends up in da hood.
The Mesonet Stations in the western portion of the state where this current action is taking place indicating temps falling off alot of areas in low 30’s
http://www.kymesonet.org/
We have been waiting our turn in CKY for some time. I am pulling on our side of the rope. LOL.
Why is it so important for you that Chris admit his wrong, (which he isn’t), but why do you keep asking him to admit he blew a forecast…
Every storm you start saying the same tired thing, (Well CB, good buddy, you must admit, you blew this one)..
LOL… Rolo, just sit back and enjoy the ride man…
And if he does blow a forecast, BIG DEAL…!!! He doesn’t have to answer to you, me or anyone but the folks that pay his salary…
I’m in N Madison Co & would LOVE to see those totals hold up!
Im going to keep them the same for now.
You have forecast everything from 1 inch to 8-12 inches. Go to sleep. Rest the liver.
Corbin-Williamsburg area??
cooling off nicely in Bowling Green from dynamical and evaporational cooling.
mitch when are you going to update your page
The VOR is sticking to 1-4 for Lexington. WAVE guys have a new post up putting Lexington in the sweet spot for 4 plus inches. That is in a swath from just NE of Bowling Green, up through Lex, Morehead and Ashland.
Currently we have 44F, dew at 35
prob around 5-10″
in a few will raise totals for LOU and leave everyone else alone for now.
Been following this site for a week now. So glad I found it although I am a newbie to the weather game. So, with this banding and all the shifts should it be official time for a bread and milk run for Central Ky? By the way, dad in Harlan co. Got. An emergency message update earlier today About power lines going down, emergency heat and food. Like all of SE Ky, they are a tough breed. Maybe we in Central Ky should be getting more excited!
Temp in Lex seems to be cooling quite rapidly. It went from some-what comfortable to cold in a matter of a couple of hours. I think with all the data coming in and the radar returns, the NWS should upgrade the Lexington metro area to a Winter Storm Warning. I really like what I see and what I’m hearing from you Chris. I suspect we get anywhere from 4″ to 7″ of snow in the Lexington metro area 4″ being in the Northwest part of Fayette Co. and close to 7″ in the far Southeast part with a general average of everyone seeing 5.75″(Fayette Co). I will definetly stay tuned to the blog. Thank you for all the updates Chris!
Rolo, my friend…..
Now is not time for any concessions from ANYONE. This storm is just now unfolding. Let’s see what ACTUALLY happens before commenting on blown forecasts.
Central Kentucky is generally considered to be the Lexington/Frankfort area.
I’m showing 37 degrees in northern Marion Co. I may be crazy but it looks like a little snow in mixing in with the rain. I’ve got to be imagining this.
It’s now 38 here in Shelbyville. No precip yet.
Me too Andrew. Right with you. Just off 627 near truck stop
Do you really have nothing better to do than troll a WEATHER blog with bad spelling and grammar? Get a life.
How about letcher Co.
WAVE 3 now says 1-2 for Louisville, 2-4 south and east and 4+ from Taylor County through Ashland.
I’ve seen reports from western Ky with it being 36 degrees and all snow, very possible, dynamic cooling happening in your area.
I smell something from the SPC soon…
I know this is not the 98 storm and I am not even hinting it will be like that, but I remember like it was yesterday the storm switching from pouring rain to big heavy wet snow in 15 to 20 minutes. Hope we see a quick switch over like that!
NE Jefferson County here. I have bands of 2 inches throughout my yard. Dag nabbit I should have mowed one last time before thxgiving. Darn bluegrass!
Some of us look forward to and enjoy what he has to say, if you don’t move on to the next post.
Chris has Pulaski co 4-8 range but weather channel just updated at 6:14 that we are only going to get 1-4
I understand everyone worrying about the temperature out there. I remember a storm during the winter of 84-85 which was very similiar to this one that it was 49 and I promise you could see flakes up in the sky and within 5 minutes it was 36 and pouring big wet snowflakes. I was standing outside as this happened or I wouldn’t have believe it. This is the type of storm that will cool everything very fast look at the WKY observations and watch it happen.
Anybody feel as if SE KY could have dynamic cooling kick in overnight?
I called it all along.
What do you think about Cynthiana?
Anybody feel as if dynamic cooling could kick in over SE KY tonight?
paducah NWS gonna wish they had a wswarning before its all over!! this does not have the juice of feb 1998 but man is it alot alike! much further west though.. looks like entire state to be above 4″ and western ky may be the big winner(mayfield to bowling green)!!
You can really see that northwest snow shield boundary trying to establish itself right over the Ohio river in N Central KY
Join us in the kentucky weather chat, we got a big crowd! Also, anyone east of Owensboro seeing snow?
http://www.ekywx.com/kychat.htm
OLD SCHOOL storm is going to happen in KY tonight!
12 plus! OK Rolo, where will it be???
I agreee!!! The NAM looks pretty fine. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see if it holds true. Read on Twitter that it’s already snowing in Paducah.
Temps range from 42-46 degrees in E.Ky…how this plays out is beyond my poor forecasting abilities….
Funny how far western KY wasn’t supposed to get much at all and they’re the only one with snow so far…
Looks like this thing has moved farther west then even CB expected… just my .02
Moderation Test!
Snow moving into louisville?
Too early to say. Snow was never forecast to begin in Eastern KY until after 1am.
Temps here in Jeffersonville Ky, now down to 40.1 and dropping rapidly, with a few sprinkles starting.
If these current trends persist, I would suspect the NWS in Louisville would upgrade some counties south and west of Louisville to a possible Winter Storm Warning later this evening/tonight, and possibly putting Louisville under a Winter Weather Advisory. This is if the current north and west movement of the precip continue, and the cooling which seems to be taking place in some ares continues to occur.
These are my thoughts, and only my thoughts… It is up to each forecasting office to issue their own weather products.
Stay tuned!
I will be updating my snowfall map at 10. Looks like a central ky storm as previusly mentioned
Latest form NWS Louisville:
THE MAIN REAL ISSUE IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE AVAILABLE
BEHIND THE CHANGE OVER AND HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE
18Z NAM…OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL LMK HIGH-REZ WRF RUNS ALL
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLING MAINLY FROM BWG NE THROUGH
LEX…WITH A VERY DRAMATIC CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. ON
THE OTHER HAND…THE 21Z RUC SIMPLY PLASTERS THE SOUTHWEST AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH HEAVY SNOW. THE 18Z GFS
RUN SEEMS TO BE OF LITTLE USE AS IT HAS TWO AREAS OF SNOW FALL…ONE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND ONE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE…WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS BETWEEN I-65 AND I-75.
Temperature down 5 degrees in Middlesboro in just a little over an hour.
lol — Okay then Vinny… I guess I’m gonna need to stay off here for the next week! This storm has been nerve wracking enough!
Temp in Lawrenceburg is 39.6.
Look at that squall line in FLA. What power with this systerm
Bwahaahahaha how fast is it dropping here?
rolo… tsk tsk tsk!
don’t heckle the blog owner darlin! Bad form! 🙂
Best wish on your snow expectations I outa here …
Wow! This storm just seems to get stronger and sound worse. I’m in Wolfe County in the mountains and I hope we don’t get hit real hard.
It is just amazing how bad the models missed this storm in western Kentucky. My friend that lives down there said that local mets called for no snow down there for the next 10 days yesterday. They are now calling for 3-5 inches. They said they currently have heavy snow near Murray.
Found the remote weather center on Clay’s Ferry bridge….and at my place 1 mile west we at 39.4* and rain from the NE….c’mon, c’mon, c’mon!!!
Central Kentucky is generally considered the SNOW DOME area.
Yeah… “central Kentucky” pretty much refers to the very center of the eastern or “fat” (from North to sount) portion of the state (Lexington, Frankfort, Winchester, Richmond). Going from east to west, it’s not exactly the center though… lol
How can you read it? It looks like some form of elementary sanscrit, or heiroglyphics in it’s beginning form.
I’ll take 6-8!!! 🙂
That my friend is why we look forward to what he has to say.
tuggin’ right along with ya! i want some serious snow!
Found the remote weather center on Clay’s Ferry bridge interesting data!….and at my place 1 mile west we at 39.4* and rain from the NE….c’mon, c’mon, c’mon!!!
38.8 now larkin. Fast enough for ya?
link please! my thermostat thermometer is reading 41. but i never hold much stock in that thing.
Robbie, LOU and the surrounding counties of Oldham,Spencer,Nelson,Larue Hardin, Meade, Breck,etc would all be considered North Central KY,maybe going another county or so to the east and west/NW or so. Hope that helps a little bit.
BubbaG the Hut, you should be most proud at this time. Look at the fragmented snow dome (aka Death Star) setting up over the Ohio River!!….’oh bemoan the no snow be’…you were my only hope.
Man…..I admit I read all the posts above just scanned them but that is in part by design.
Watching the radar looks like lots of moisture and temps are cooling.
I think we will not for sure how me we will get till 6:00PM tomorrow. The Mets are flat out not sure. Looks like 2-3 in Lex to me so let’s just wait and see.
WW
From Channel 8 in Knoxville for my area:
Mesoscale Snow Banding
(“intense, localized” snow bands)
…20-50 miles wide
6 to 12 inches of SNOW potential
Where ? Hard to say. But I believe the area to watch is in Tennessee and Kentucky from Morristown, Rutledge, Tazewell, Sneedville, Middlesboro and Corbin.
Surface temps are still too high.
SW Boyle County: Drizzle, 40 degrees at 7:30pm
Down to 41 in Pikeville Rain starting to come down.The stores are nuts.
Morgan County….39 degrees….down from 42 degrees 30 minutes ago.
Was raining here in north Corbin area earlier.Not doing anything at the moment.
try this http://rwis.kytc.ky.gov/
You’re not crazy, Mark. Our “better” snowfalls (i.e.,77-78)have all either started @ or stayed in the 30-35°range, and believe it or not, I think it was early 90’s, a Sunday aaround 2pm, it was 42° and we got a hefty little snow there for awhile, perhaps an inch or little more,then the sun came out.. 🙁 (I’m in Bardstown,btw)
Wow…the storm is ON TOP of Kentucky, hours away and they are not too sure what to make of it. I’m in open the window and look mode!
Is there any hope for Oldham County with this northward move?
Temps have dropped from around 45 to 36/37 here in Northern Rowan County/Morehead area over the past 4 hours..and we have not had any precipitation yet. Does that mean more snow totals possible? I’m thinking no one really knows what’s going to happen, until or as it’s unfolding, there were/are just too many dynamics coming into play with this system.
looks good to me!
i am up at exit 99.
Versailles is considered to be the Epicenter of the Dome 😉
Just starting to rain 25 miles northeast of lex. Radar barely showing a mix where I live. 7:45
I’m pulling the rope toward South Eastern (London, Laurel County)TUUUUUGGGGGGG, PUUULLLLL,
From 39 to 37 in Lexington in the past 15 minutes! Looking good!!!
I’m over the river and through the woods….at Boone’s Trace
Mercer county temps dropped from 43 to 39 in about 10 minute span
Just now started raining again in north Corbin.
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
42 in Corbin w/light rain
REALLY? NWS in Jackson still has us in possible 1-4 max..?? Say it ain’t so! 🙂
7:45 p.m. Waterford, Spencer Co. KY (6 mi. E Mt. Washington) Lgt Rn… Temp 37.0F.
Mesonet showing temps in central Ky dropping at about 2 degrees an hour 🙂
Who else here is starting to like snow chances in central ky???!
Mount Sterling 39 degrees with light drizzle. Waiting patiently.
Here in Prestonsburg the temp has dropped a degree an hour basically. We are now at 42 degrees and rain sprinkles.
Chris, where is the update, real time says this storm is going to punch some folks that don’t see it coming? 🙂
Here is to hoping the chnageover occurs about an hour or two earlier than expected!!! Say 10 p.m. central for Bowling Green area? That is my request! Temps between 37 and 39 over the past half hour.
IF, and it’s a big if right now, but if that sharp temperature gradient currently west of the Green River Parkway reaches the LEX area in the next couple of hours, the snowfall amounts here will go WAY up and I will be the first to say I was wrong. But for now…it’s 36 here and smooth sailing. Definitely bears watching…
Me Lincoln!!
There are bears watching you?
Waiting for the next rolo waffle.
LOL!!
Paranoia is the first sign of severe weather induced stress.
Good luck So.KY and have fun with the snow. Here in the dead zone(Louisville) nothing. Radar shows showers but nothing hitting the ground here.
Temp is 38 in Paintsville now.
Continues to drop…
OVERACHIEVER!!!
Raining Good Here In Bardstown 37 Degrees.
Temps have been dropping steady here in Lex. Looks like the system is starting to spinning up on top of us. This could be nuts in a few hours.
However, I concure with your assessment.
I’m T_LEX and I approve this statement.
new post
Moderate rain in Grayson County. Temp 35
You know, when I typed that, I just KNEW there was something not right about it. 🙂 LMAO.
Temperatures just went up at the Lincoln County Meso site….show’s over folks, Wormer dropped the big one!
Temperatures just went up at the Lincoln County Meso site….show’s over folks, Wormer just dropped the big one!
It is about 9:20p.m. In Hazard, KY and the rain is changing over to snow right now!
39 and light rain in Morehead
In Hazard, KY the rain is mixing with snow right now!
Funny< Lots of folks has missed this one!