Good Thursday, everybody. Our pattern is beginning to wake up once again and that means some active weather for the final week and a half of October. Several systems will roll across the region during this time with the first one crossing the state out there today. All of this leads us into a pattern change as we flip the calendar from October to November.

Today’s front doesn’t have a lot of juice with it but it’s producing a band of showers and some thunderstorms along and ahead of it. The greatest chance for rain continues to be across the eastern half of the state this afternoon and evening. This is where the SPC has a low-end risk for a few severe storms…

Here are your radars to follow the Thursday action…

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Low clouds filter in behind our front for Friday and will likely spit out some scattered showers, especially across the northern half of the state. Clouds may very well be a problem on Friday and that would keep temps staying in the 50s. The NAM fam of models picked up on this first and they continue to keep things on the chilly side. Here’s an animation of the temps from 8pm this evening through 8pm Friday…

Saturday features a temp split from northeast to southwest as our next system moves in. Showers and some thunderstorms increase Saturday night into Sunday morning as a warm front lifts to the north. Low pressure then rolls across the Ohio Valley Monday with more showers and storms and gusty winds. This will then unleash another shot of chilly air behind it…

The pattern is then set for a major amplification into the middle and end of next week. The models are going wild with a significant upper low…

GFS

Canadian

This fits my thoughts of the fall and winter being major cutoff low producers. Check out the how the models play this system at the surface…

GFS

Canadian

That could be a major rain and wind maker around here and the trend is for this thing to wind up pretty darn chilly compared to what I was thinking a few days ago.

As far as the various ensembles go, they are pretty emphatic with the changes ahead. The Control run of the EURO Ensembles show how these troughs really begin to dig into the east over the next few weeks…

The more smoothed out version of the Canadian Ensembles also give us a good illustration of the changes…

I will have another update later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.