Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for dropping in on the blog. A winter storm will slam parts of the state tonight into Wednesday and likely dump a heavy, wet snowfall for many areas. As we have been saying… The greatest concentration of snow will be across the south and southeast with lighter amounts to the north and northwest.
The trend on the latest computer models is toward two lows, for a time, late tonight and early Wednesday. One low will run northward into northern Alabama before giving way to the primary low working into the Carolinas and up the east coast. This means the precipitation shield will come farther west and deliver accumulating snows to most of the state.
Here is your breakdown…
– A shield of rain and mixed snow will move northward out of Tennessee late this evening into the overnight hours.
– Dynamic cooling will kick in shortly after the rain starts with a rapid switch to snow.
– The upper levels with this storm look very good for bands of moderate to heavy snow to develop. The best chance for heavy bands will be very late tonight into early Wednesday in the west and central parts of the state. Then Wednesday morning and early afternoon for the east.
– Temps will be near freezing for the bulk of this storm meaning this will be a very wet snowfall that will cling to everything. Any area that can pick up 5″ or more of snow can have some issues with trees and power.
Here is a belated First Call For Snowfall…
As usual until the final call… those lines and numbers are not set in stone and I will adjust things as we get a better picture to how the storm is unfolding today. I must say… this is as late of a first call map I have EVER put out and that should tell you something about this storm. My gut tells me it will throw a few surprises our way over the next 36 hours.
I will update the snow map with some fresh thoughts a few more times today. I will also get you all the tracking radars and cams you need to follow this storm in from the southwest.
Even with a winter storm moving in… the blog is always looking ahead. Here are a few quick thoughts…
– Snow showers and flurries will be with us behind our departing storm into Thursday.
– A weak clipper will dive in from the northwest and bring a period of light snow for Thursday night and Friday.
– The next period to look for a big winter storm across the eastern half of the country will be early next week.
– February will see more of the same with cold and snow dominating. The threat for another big shot of arctic air is looming during the first few weeks.
Ok… I will have more updates as needed through the day so be sure to check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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I love everybody, that includes you Sarah.
I will take it thanks.
Woohoo! Finally some snow totals to look at. Was hoping for a little more when we first started talking about this storm, but I’ll take 3″ in Madison County.
Nothing directed at Bailey.. but people are scared to pull the trigger on this one.
WoW
So really nothing different than the Bluegrass has seen the past 7+ years I have been here, another 1-3 incher. Bring on spring.
Not much for Lex! Bummer!! I did find it interesting that there was mention of a gut feeling of a few surprises. That inferes to me that CB is uncertain of the track which could make a big dif for some. The other wildcard could be how quickly the temps drop to change precipt over to snow. I for one will not be surprised if the maps change or snow total get increased. Given the uncertainty it wise for CB to go conservative out of the gate which is smart on his part. Just my take! WW
bring on the big snow
Very Foggy out there this morning!!!
I am so sick of 1 to 3 inchers. Let’s just get spring in here.
In general, three months ago, the long term forecast (90 day outlook)called for most of us getting rain/ice events here in KY. No indication the east coast was going to get blasted this year. Needless to say, KY has seen a fair share their snow. Next three months are EC on temp & precip. We’ll see… Feb still has above average precipitation.
I thought it was funny yesterday evening when Madison Co. wasn’t included in the watch map and the surrounding counties were, and now we are in it….but I also have a very funny feeling that we will be closer to the 6 inch range than the three, after all Chris said he had a gut feeling his maps may change 🙂 Looks like another snow day is in our future Madison Co. kiddos….
Thats just Chris’s first call. He will update it later as the storm gets closer. So don’t feel down just yet if your not in the good snow total range. also, NWS has put out a WSW for parts of central Ky. URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
426 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
…WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
THE GULF STATES TODAY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE EAST TO THE
CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TO IMPACT OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLAIN RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A
STRONG PUSH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT…A
CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WATCH AREA TO
RECEIVE 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
KYZ040>043-046>049-053>057-062>067-070>078-081-082-252100-
/O.NEW.KLMK.WS.A.0002.110126T0300Z-110127T0000Z/
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-
CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…VERSAILLES…LEXINGTON…PARIS…
CARLISLE…SPRINGFIELD…HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…
WINCHESTER…HODGENVILLE…LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…
RICHMOND…BROWNSVILLE…MUNFORDVILLE…GREENSBURG…
CAMPBELLSVILLE…LIBERTY…STANFORD…RUSSELLVILLE…
BOWLING GREEN…FRANKLIN…SCOTTSVILLE…GLASGOW…
TOMPKINSVILLE…EDMONTON…COLUMBIA…JAMESTOWN…BURKESVILLE…
ALBANY
426 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 /326 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011/
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
* TIMING: RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON.
AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY.
* MAIN IMPACT: 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TRAVEL.
* OTHER IMPACTS: THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS WILL SET UP. THEREFORE…BE SURE
TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE FOR
FORECAST UPDATES.
EC?
Why are all of the local mets saying only around 2 inches in the bluegrass and only 4 in se ky?
Just seems like more hype than anything, more like a typical decent snow here…unless it overachieves…just by looking at most of the amounts. Even the higher amounts are generally for the highest elevations and those are pretty typical for them. Guess we’ll see though what happens.
You are the silliest goose in sillygooseville.
equal chances
I guess I’ll just wait and see what I end up with – forecasters are all giving different amounts – anywhere from 1 to 8 inches. Sure does make it aggravating when you have to give your employers at least 24 hour notice on missing work or get a write up.
We can just hope that dynamic cooling occurs faster than it is predicted to. If that happened, we could be seeing some pretty major amounts across the board.
Not exactly the mid 1990’s storm as mentioned
thanks!
We go through this several times every winter on this blog. Everyone gets all excited about a big storm and we end up with a couple of inches. Who knows though, this one could be the one. : )
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR A MAJOR CHUNK OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY! I’d say winter weather advisories will be issued later today for the Louisville, E’town and Frankfort Areas.
id say the watch will be extended west…winter storm warning issued for west central tennessee where they are expecting 8″+ in some areas, and we are much colder than they are! Folks, this one is the BIG ONE! get ready!
How about Grayson and Hardin counties–any accumulation?? We seem to be on the fringe.
well as u know hard to forcast these sysatems, but thisa one should in my mind be downfraded for alot.
RAIN will dominate thru tomm morning for alot, and the far eastern mountains might vatch snow as moisture leaves.
central ky gets more than S SE KY get IMO.
could see over a inch of rain before a brief changeover.
so IMO 1-2 inches tops of a quick wet snow with the MOUNTAIN COUNTIES maybe see 4.
yea much colder with rain thru 8am tomm morninf for a big chunk of the area.
wow…HUGE MESS!!!!…NWS in Jackson saying in thier discussion, they think its gonna be mostly rain?!?!?!…WSW going to advisories ..my area (where chris has us in a 4-8) NWS says…ahhh maybe 1″ or less!!!!!!!!!!! oh i need an energy drink!! 2 pots of coffee and a PAID VACATION!!!…while on the other had, west Tn…in a wswarining for more than 6″ of snow…LORD HELP!!!
Things looking up for everyone. The last time I seen a system similar to this one they called for 1-3 and we got 13 inches here. Keeping fingers crossed for everyone. Ill be content with whatever we get though I love all snowfalls!!!
I was watching Tom Ackerman on 18 this morning and he seemed to shrug off the winter storm watch hinting that he doesn’t agree with it. He didn’t even mention it until the end of his segment. NWS in Louisville seem pretty confident though. Me?…..I’m just confused. lol
this is my (point/click )forecast from NWS in JACKSON!! THEY CAN KEEP IT!
Tonight: Rain likely before 1am, then rain and snow likely between 1am and 3am, then rain after 3am. Low around 33. East northeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Wednesday: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 1pm. Temperature falling to around 32 by 5pm. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
Wednesday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
On one local channel the mets are hiding right now LOL.
I think its hilarious. Maybe they should pay more attention to CB.
Hmmmmmmmmm… 😉
Good lord I agree it like an election time watching some of these guys flip flop flip flop … well let see what the CB has to say — the winter storm warning west TN is interesting
So the western trend is not picking up the main moisture, I take it, or is the rain factor the main killer?
How are we in a winter storm mode when the projection is 1 to 3″? I thought the criteria was 4″ in less than 12 hours?
Seems this puppy is over-hyped, or are the contradictions being created in my mind?
So my forecast of 2″ to 4″ for central and 6″ to 8″ for east and south east was “kind” of close.
Been warning about the rain factor since the get-go and this why I cautioned against assuming a western flow equals all snow accumulation.
Not going to say “I t*** y** s*”, since that would be cold. Perhaps a blessing anyway, since 7″ or more of wet snow would be power out city for areas.
Bring it!
AHHH! I swear — let’s just all go take some shots and come back to this tomorrow. By then at least there’s a good likelihood that SOMEONE will know what’s going on! 😛
Lame.
From now on, we shouldn’t even discuss the potential for big snows until about 12 hours out.
It’s clear long-range forecasting is a joke. Junk science at best.
This is no attack on Chris, but a word of wisdom for ALL of us that get caught up in the hype. Horoscopes are correct more often than long-range weather models.
1-3″ for Greenup and still the only county in KY with zilch in the way of WSW, hazardous outlook, etc.
if that is all we are going to get, i would rather get none. NEXT!!
It looks to me as if the low is actually moving northeast.
Not exactly the mid 1990’s storm as mentioned
rolo not flip flopping u listen to any of the mets on TV etc and they tell u this is a tough system to track.
and has been, ISH CHANGES and from my pointy of view more rain than snow.
im glad in a way because I couldnt do without power right now and that what 6 plus inches of WET SNOW would do.
JWS sucks after reading there discussion Looks like the London area south and east are going to handed a bag of rocks, cold KY rain, cool air arrives to late for good accumulation. Let us pray.Anyone know a good snow dance?
significant snowfalls my foot. all this hype was smoke and no fire.
Just offically jumped off the rolo train somewhere between manchester and Hazard..Should of known rolo’s mule had too much too drink..LOL..Dang Goats ate everything on the train..
Now do folks see why I have not been so “up” on this system? Rain factor being a key.
Questions remain though:
Why is it a WSW for central KY if 1″ to 3″? Though criteria was 4″ in less than 12 hours?
CB expected the moisture to draw in as the system moved west. Based on CB’s map, the system is tracking west, but the moisture seems weak and not drawing in. Rain factor even worse?
IF the moisture IS drawing in and dynamic cooling, why such low map totals?
Seems to be contradicting info all around, regardless of source. This storm flummoxing mets THAT much?
Quick question for those of you who know more about these things: The rain was supposed to come out of Tenn. late this evening, but to me it appears it is at the Tenn/Ky border now and moving N. Does this mean anything and does it change anything?
When it’s all said and done, a lot of us, myself in particular, are going be wondering why we torture ourselves this way.
The best thing that can happen now is to have a 7 day away snowstorm set to pummel Central KY. Then I can look forward to 7 more days of torment only to get another ankle biter.
On a completely different note:
I thought the commute was more hazardous this morning (with the dense fog–visibility in Anderson/Mercer County couldn’t have been 1/10 of a mile) than yesterday morning–yet school systems seemed to have no problem running busses in this weather? Makes little to no sense to me.
Anyone else have dense fog in their area?
Because the NWS is calling for 4-6″ in the watch area (including CKY), and CB doesn’t work for the NWS…
Two lows..First to come north and east with mostly rain…Second to come later tonight, out of the gulf and up the east coast will take place of the first low and become stronger up the coast with nice amounts of snow for the Apps and just west of the apps…
If the moisture works in today from the low will that be the moisture that was supposed to be snow? I hope CB is right on this but I don’t understand how the forecasts can be so different. For now, I’ll not doubt him but if this is what he has eluded to we’ll have a update soon. If not, that speaks columes!
Looks like Chris is following GFS closely with his map. It looks pretty good to me. NAM has nothing for Louisville or Cincy, and a dusting for Frankfort. I might actually go slighly lower than what the GFS is showing…but overall CB’s map looks pretty good in my opinion. The LEX area still doesn’t look to get thumped.
It means that it will rain for most of the day over most of Ky. After midnight tonight the entire state, except for far Western and Ohio River Counties, will transition over to all snow. SE Ky will see 4-8 inches with lesser totals up to the river.
A winter storm warning is 4inches in 24 hours. We are under a watch, not a warning unless they changed it.
what about Johnson County? Also do you see temperatures staying as high as predicted or will we see them lower a bit as the dynamic cooling starts?
NAM keeps us at or above freezing until 39 hours (4PM Wednesday). By then, the majority of the precip. is gone. This leaves central KY with nothing, and eastern KY (and Johnson Co.) with a light to moderate snow only.
GFS is much colder and takes us below freezing during the day with a little more QPF. That would give you a good snowfall there, and LEX a light snow.
It’s really just a matter of temps. as this low looks to stay on the coast as it has looked all along. Dynamic Cooling is the wildcard. If that kicks in strong and the models don’t account for it…we could have a surprise on our hands again.
fox41 news marc weinberg just said the deformation zone with the heaviest totals will setup over etown to shepherdsville to campbellsville in north central ky….i see these areas getting 4-6 inches, dynamic cooling will change rain to snow quickly by 10 pm tonite
Neil is correct. Here is the NWS map with accumulations: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=63106&source=0
MikeM- the difference between a watch and warning is the time- not the time of the snow but how far away it is. The watch is for the second and third forecast periods, the warning is for the first period.
So ultimately, the watch will be changed to a warning if their forecast remains the same. If their forecast is for less snow, it will probably become an advisory.
*******CONFUSED*********
With all the talk about temps being the key factor…..How (if we’re talking about the possibility of rain here in KY, could west TN being under a warning for heavy snow tonight?
About Dynamic cooling…..How is it that there is sometimes dynamic cooling and other times there’s not? For example, the times in the past when we had a 33 degree heavy rain……Why was there no dynamic cooling then?
I think Chris Bailey does a great job on his weather blog. When I want an accurate forcast, I always pull up this blog. Weather systems are hard to track when all the models go in different directions. I am ready for summer myself, but if we are going to get snow, I hope it is BIG this time! Good job Chris!! You are the best!
Weinberg is a complete moron. I’m sorry, but that’s just how it is. He’s not even in the same league as Chris Bailey…and I don’t even think he’s fit to tie the shoes of the other mets. in Louisville either. Weinberg is the guy that’ll call the SPC “fools” for issuing a Moderate Risk of severe weather here and put people’s lives in danger, then the next day it’s armageddon to him. He needs to go back to Oklahoma.
rolo, please take a position and stand on it at least, sheesh. LOL.
Wow, wouldn’t that be a “surprise”…lol. Ppl might not be happy with CB’s 1st call, but, there’s nothing wrong with being conservative here. This storm is really a tough one to call with the dynamics of it. Bottom line is, if dynamic cooling kicks in fast (like it did in ’98 when models didn’t account for it to), then we all could see surprises. It’s just a wait on mother nature and how she wants to play it all out. Funny, I was checking the latest Canadian snowfall output, and it has Lou. area getting 3-5″! and Lex. in the 5-8″ range, with E KY in the 8-10” range. Those numbers I’m sure everyone would LOVE to see play out, right? Basically, those totals would only happen if the “surprises” really did kick in, as CB suggested could happen.
Does 1 to 3 inches of snow call for a wsw ? We got 3 over the weekend with nothing from nws
Drat. While I do not want to lose power, I want this thing to move west. I jokingly said the other day when I read the possiblity for 8+ inches, that it will probably just be 3. To see today’s “First Call”… aargh.
Can never go wrong with CB.
The Ackerman … well let us just say a DEBBIE DOWNER and also is not enthusiastic about weather. Needs to be in Hawaii .. 60 for a low 80 for a high
The amount of smack talk last night against local mets was funny (in a good way). They “could” get the last laugh though, since this system is still a moving target.
Folks need to look back and read when the system manifested into a monster last night on the blog and the smack kicked in 😉
Nothing against smack talk- it IS fun, but the reality seems we are full circle and this will not be a big snow.
No Darth Bubba analogies ATM, that WOULD be cold.
How likely is dynamic cooling? I seem to remember a storm last year or the year before that waited and waited on dynamic cooling and we ended up with rain.
I don’t get it, last blog update before this one you said it’s more likely going to drop heavy precipitation on central and eastern Kentucky. Then come back and state that just as youvwere saying it’s going to be southern parts of Kentucky that get the big snow. Honestly, I don’t think anyone knows what these storms are doing, just getting everyones hopes up that they will get big snows. I say play it safe all the time and admit your not sure, right? Anyway guess we will all see, think I’ll check out the NWS.
Without a DOUBT, Chris Bailey is the most professional and knowledgable weatherman out there! Don’t ever leave and go to some national network! We love you to much in the tri-states!
I agree with you!! I don’t see how so many people are getting completly different things with this one storm!!
One more thing that worried me is that CB is also focusing on the upcoming storms while we are awaiting this one. Usually if a storm is promising he will wait until the smoke clears before jumping on the next train. I’m not saying its a bad thing to keep us updated but I’m saying I’m afraid he’s gonna break it to us that we’ve been robbed of all the snow but on the bright side there’s more tracking coming up. Its a vicious cycle but I guarantee if thats the case, as much as I hate getting upset or disappointed, I’ll be here tracking lol!
Tried to be nice and point all this out, but regardless of how I tried, a lot of folks thought I was being a downer.
I am NOT the downer- KY weather is and the infamous 33/32 law that dominates KY winters and we get mainly small events as a result.
Sure, people will tout the snow this winter, but they also need to point out how many events it took to get there 😉
Tried to be nice and point all this out, but regardless of how I tried, a lot of folks thought I was being a downer.
I am NOT the downer- KY weather is and the infamous 33/32 law that dominates KY winters and we get mainly small events as a result.
Sure, people will tout the snow this winter, but they also need to point out how many events it took to get there 😉
yea you think you know everything .. where is your weather degree from – Cracker Jacks ??
yea you think you know everything .. where is your weather degree from – Cracker Jacks ??
On a serious note to me this storm still has some potential for some too get a decent snow..Nothing like being prepared in case the lights go out..Like others has said this is a tough one too call..So be prepared just in case and if the lights go out be a good neighbor and check on the elderly..
On a serious note to me this storm still has some potential for some too get a decent snow..Nothing like being prepared in case the lights go out..Like others has said this is a tough one too call..So be prepared just in case and if the lights go out be a good neighbor and check on the elderly..
yea we know, bubba knows it all …. let’s all thank mr bubba for his knowledge of the weather, so tell me wizard, how many fingers am i holding up right now ???
As tired to point out a few times, CB is NOT giving forecasts, but posting his thoughts on system progression in the blog (90% of the fun).
Sometimes his thoughts may be incorrect and in this case, almost EVERYONE appears to be. When it got time to actually post a forecast, CB took the data and made the call. Though not the level CB was suggesting for a good part of the build-up to this event, it is what it is.
Besides, CB went out of his way to say things were not set in stone and could quickly change.
its all about NOWCASTING NOW AND WATCHING THE RADAR….some will get it others wont…just depends on where those heavy bands set up…could be a case of snowing hard in one spot and raining 50 miles away…
Meant “tried” but am also tired, so same difference.
Not sure, but I know what I am holding up 🙂
“The upper levels with this storm look very good for bands of moderate to heavy snow to develop. The best chance for heavy bands will be very late tonight into early Wednesday in the west and central parts of the state. Then Wednesday morning and early afternoon for the east”—- Did you MISS that part?? 🙂
Amen to that. Old timer across the street has a standing invitation to stay with us if things get bad. If not I will bug him unmercifully, LOL.
He told me this morning–“Coverin’ fog, young lady…means SNOW, LOTS of it…with a wink.
LOL. Gotta love him, a die hard snow lover at 83. 😀
I don’t see how either. I can’t wait until the noon news. I think I’ll watch all three stations and see how different they are for entertainment purposes. For the record: I rely only on Chris’s forecast when it comes to snow. Everyone else seems to get rain right.
Not all hope is lost after all…everyone has been waiting for the NAM to come around. Well, if you live in central/west kentucky, you will love the brand new 12Z NAM. Once again, if link does NOT work, copy/paste and put in new tab! This would be from the time frame of 7p tonight thru 7p wed. night. The NAME actually puts Lou. in the 1-3″ range. But, just 30 miles south of there 3-5″(looking better for E Town fans). Also a nice swath of 5-8″ for southern counties (Richmond is on the “bubble” that was for Bubba) and the east side of the state. If surprises happen, the trend makes you think it would most likely happen WEST of I-75 going with this map.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamp24_MW036.gif
well if for some reason he does go national, maybe Bubba can take over, he seems to know everything … ALL HAIL BUBBAG
…coming out with my special blend analysis ‘second call’ soon (see yesterday’s comment on ‘first call’ at about this time).
moderation is horrible! Anyway, i tried to comment on the new 12z NAM and instead of breaking it down for you guys, just take a look. Basically, if you are west of I-75, the new NAM is suggesting the surpises CB talked about, just may occur. Especially anywhere that is 30 miles south of Lou and beyond. Still gives Lou 1-3″. Just take a look. Please if link doesn’t work, copy/paste it and put in new tab.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamp24_MW036.gif
lol
What’s the deal dude?
This site works better for me. Same results, just different file. Give it a try. I don’t know, may not work….
I heat with natural gas and fortunate to have backup power..I bag hot lunches for 3 elderly folks and do my best too make sure there comfortable..You could not drag them out of the house if they needed to go somewhere safe..LOL.. We often forget about the one’s who taught us right from wrong but as long as im able I’ll help anyway i can..
Can we just continue being confused about the weather situation and stop with the personal jabs?
sorry…
http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/12znam_pcpl.php
I could have swore i just saw ROLO ROKER on TV…B)
LOL…LOL….LOL…..
🙂
Here’s the bottom line mets around the commonwealth are just now using there best gut instinct I firmly believe alot of mets are taking back on the constant north to northwest movement the models have been showing the last 3 days. Most mets not all are taking off guard, most of the mets thought the models would come back around with the east progression with the models that looks like that will not happen. Statewide it’s apparent that everybody is in the game with no doubt I-75 on points east should be the big winners but north central KY central and south central might possibly get a fairly decent snowfall out of this especially if banding occurs.
Why should he when no one else has, remember a few days ago this system was going to put down 20 inches. I say Rolo’s guess is as good as anybody elses.
You go Bubba! lol
LOL..Quote of the day..
LOL. I wouldn’t say mentioning the next system is ‘focusing’ on it. And he always mentions something he’s looking at if it is significant to him.
Our ‘focus’ should be on that ‘my gut tells me it will throw a few surprises in the next 36 hours’ comment. 😉
The big storm is coming at the end of the month and first of next month…….Stay tuned………
I’ve been moderated so if my other posts eventually show up……..Sorry
*******confused********
QUESTION about DYNAMIC COOLING:
Remember in the past when we would have those 33 degree COLD rains……Why was there no dynamic cooling then? Why is there sometimes dynamic cooling, while other times there isn’t?
And if we here in KY are in question of the possibility of us getting RAIN in case dynamic cooling doesn’t kick in, then how would TN even be looking at heavy snow, while we have the possibility of having rain
Hey, lay off the Bubbs! We are kinda partial to him…:)
I forgive bama. The weather here creates the need to vent 🙂 🙁
Ha!
Your comments make you sound like a left wing forbama nut case. Just saying.
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Spit my coffee and everything! Nice one Bub! 😉
I know, I agree that its not a focus but at the same time I feel like he is either burned out from all the snow or is having doubts himself. I’m just so frusturated with this system and I can’t imagine the work load and pressure on him but at the same time the suspense is killing me!
The NWS is scared theyll be wrong, thats why there is a watch out.Honestly, I think CB took a look at some other mets snowfall forecast 😉 lol I still need to update mine.
Can’t wait for someone with the knowledge to answer this one because this is in a nut shell what I’ve been wondering, that and the chances for the dynamic cooling….TY for asking this 🙂
Yeah,that was HIS guess.
Just sayin…
Good questions, none of which I have the answers to.
At what point will the NWS change the watch to the warning and by that I mean criteria and time frame?
I agree. Heavy wet snow comes hand in hand with a period of rain up front, but that does not mean the rain has to last most of the event 🙂
We could still get a decent snow out of this event. 5″ would be perfect for this type of snow, since anything more creates power problems. 7″ or more is about as bad as an ice storm and 10″ or more starts causing roof damage.
All things considered, we are better off NOT having a big snow with heavy wet stuff 🙂
By the way, before you get all your ‘momma grizzly’ hackles up… rolo is usually poked at by me and many more people. (and alot more are poked at too)
He takes it well. 🙂 And so would I if he poked back…. 😉
Chris When will the snow be over already plz dont say March???
I just heard about this new invention on the Internet called GOOGLE. Apparently you can type in words like “Dynamic Cooling” at it will give you links to websites that will explain it. Cool huh?
Do you agree with the watch still today or are you thinking more advisory level?
Got to be careful though since if bama is a younger person, I can see being frustrated and a strong desire to vent.
Two wrongs usually do not make a right. Valid cliche.
3 inches would be better than NONE, to me anyway… 😉
I love snow so much that even a half hour of snow falling brings me peace. I would love a big one, but to say– bring either that or nothing at all….??? –doesn’t make sense to me.
A watch isnt a warning, so its no big deal to remove a watch. But i think they are wanting to see how quickly the changeover to snow is.
wow, that was rude.
Why the sarcasm? 🙁
Why the sarcasm? 🙁
Sorry to be asking so many questions but I really value the opinions on here….sorry.
The basic criteria is the same. The difference is how far away the event is. Winter storm warning is for the first forecast period, which I believe means it starts within 12 hours. Since they are looking at after midnight, I would think they’d make a call sometime after noon.
I think the watch would then become a warning, for those areas that they expect to get 4 inches of snow. Or become an advisory for those they expect to get less.
Thank you 🙂
Then again, bama did “assault” me in several threads….
See what this funky weather does to folks? Turns brother against brother and sister against sister! Can’t we all just get along? 🙂
Maybe it isn’t a big deal, but their confidence in the forecast isnt why it is a watch. This isnt like severe thunderstorm watches/warnings. They went with a watch because it is for a later period.
Watch= 12-36 hours in advance of event.
Warning= 12 hours or less
well thing to remember here is CB isnt forecasting here, this is a blog he does in his own time and discusses all scenarios. There are times I get frustrated with what he is saying because he isnt telling me what I want to hear about snow, then other times he gives me great hope for ‘the big one’ LOL. Bottom line is he’s human,(albeit, a bit more accurate than others) but he is really only calling what he is seeing. He can’t ‘make’ this storm do what he wants. 😉
last response went to moderation. So sorry if this repeats. See my note above about watch/warning time. I think they are saying midnight for transition to snow, so it should become a warning or advisory this afternoon.
It works..thanks MS. I was just trying to give a still frame and breakdown with counties. So, ppl don’t think I’m making up things, lol. But, I like the moving link you posted!
At this point, the models are now either overcorrecting, overreacting, or overachieving. Perhaps why all the delay in putting out solid amounts along with warnings/advisories. Admittedly, your forecast areas are tough to nail down. It’s amazing how CB has such a good track record.
My ‘second call'(yes, may not be the last call) is not much different than my ‘first call’. However, the trend is slightly negative for the far e/se and somewhat positive for central.
The transition to all snow will be critical along with temps at the surface.
Pikeville 4-8″
Middlesborough 3-6″
Jackson 2-5″
Hazard 3-6″
Lexington 1-3″
There you have it…So far, you’ve willed the shield west. See, the beast of the east isn’t so tough after all.
Interesting. A flip flop from the usual scenario. This time Chris goes conservative (at 1:30a.m.), while NWS issues WSW for “at least 4 inches” at 4:30 a.m. Appears to be all about when the cold gets here.
Don’t apologize, someone just has their knickers in a twist about something – this site is also about learning!
Bubba, I like you more everyday 🙂
If you are a guy: Don’t be rude, dude.
If you are a girl: Don’t be rude…. Jude.
If you are a guy: Don’t be rude, dude.
If you are a girl: Don’t be rude…. Jude.
Very upside down- agreed.
Hey Rserve— read her comment and learn this sweetie’s lesson in being POLITE. Thats how you do it, got it?
BLIZZARD I talk to roker via tweet alot.
ok here it is it going be a 3 -5 hour maybe of snowfall tomm, so u be looking at 1 maybe 2 un per hour rates so its not all over yert, but unless it blows up behind this rain shield the precip will be gone for most by the time cooling takes place. if cooling was a big deal then it 38 here in manchewster so when rain start we should go down to 34 so in that reguatd should be snow then, but it will not.
had few maker mark shots so im missing a few keys,sorry. lub u all.
I read this blog every day but almost never post. Why do some of you like to pick at certian people they are just stating their opinon like everyone else. That is what this blog is for.There are some people that are better at reading the maps and forcasting the weather.But when its all said and done Mother Nature is the one that has the last word.IMO
Well I’ve have finally come to a conclusion! Nobody really knows what is going to happen..keep saying it depends on this or that. Well i give up. not going to look at this site till late tonight cause it’s giving me an ulcer!!! Chris you are THE MAN but.. I need a break. To all of you out there Hope we get a big one going to prepare for a big one but also going to prepare to be knee deep in mud from all the cold rain!! So have fun you guys and stay safe.
The one thing sure of (for me) is a big snow with heavy wet stuff is about a 99.99% guarantee for a power outage- never fails where I live. If the weather is a power threat- bam!
I really value the opinions here too!!! Dont apologize, you were using the blog for what it was intended!! i did google it and here’s what i found. It specfically references ’98 🙂
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/topics/attach/html/ssd98-10.htm
As always, I appreciate the thoughts, comments, and knowledge provided by CB and the bloggers. You guys are fantastic!
Rolo,
Even for the Rolocoaster, this has been the wildest up & down ride to date 😉
bubba but dony my copmment fit dshouldnt we dynamic cooling as soon as rain starts if we are ever going get it. there going be sum heavy rain which should pull in cooler air.
BUBBA U MY DOG, u have been correct all winter sir and i owe u that dinner.
what is the GFS doing?????????????????????????! 24 hours out! It like takes the storm back to where i came from
the GFS and NAM just did a total flip flop, lol…seems to be the going rate with this storm. Who in their right mind can say the American weather models are any more consistent than the Foreign ones? It’s to the point almost now, where we all just have to start watching radar trends to our west and south and go from there. On a side not, the GFS has the low already positioned wrong. It in central Alabama right now, and GFS has it in the gulf 6 hours from now, lol…oops
This from Nashville NWS……….
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
931 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011
.UPDATE…
THERE IS ALOT GOING FOR HEAVY SNOW IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLAN ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE PROBABLY AROUND NOON. STILL
HAVE A QUESTION ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. EXPECT 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 LOCALLY BUT
COULD BE MORE. WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IS HARD TO SAY AT
THIS POINT. EXPECT DYNAMICAL COOLING WITH UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSED 700 MB LOW TRACKS FROM MEM TO CHA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WE DONT SEE TOO MANY CLOSED LOWS AT 700 MB THIS
FAR SOUTH. ALSO 850 LOW TRACKS THROUGH MID STATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MID STATE IN LEFT REAR QUAD OF STRONG UPPER JET.
BOYD
This is 10:31 our time. Sounds like those to the South of us are not too worried about warm air intrusion LOL….Time to load up, folks. 🙂
NWS in Louisville showing a little love for Lexington 4-6″
UUUGGG!! I love this site but geeesh. I can seriously feel an ulcer coming. All this back and forth. I gotta take a break before I lose my mind. All i can say is i’m going to prepare for the big one AND prepare to be knee deep in the mud from all the rain tomorrow. Love reading the comments but I’m gonna have to take a break till this evening or i’m going to lose my mind!! Happy blogging everyone hope everyone has a happy day!!
Also, I posted an update on my website, if anyone is interested.
WOW!
And you were afraid that you couldn’t find the right words to apologize.
ROLO, what are you ROLLOIN? I don’t think it was the Makers! Now I know how you got your name.
Well, good for Lexington, haha…The way I see it, if Lou area even gets 1-3″ us snow lovers should be happy, considering 24 hrs ago, the NWS and all local MET’s were saying NO accumulation for Lou area. So, whether it’s a couple of inches or 6″ inches, bring it on I say. NOBODY should be worried to much about rain. Especially when NWS Nashville is not concerned by it.
Here is a very good interactive radar link
http://www.struckbylightning.org/alert.htm
IM NOW CASTING, IT TAKE THE NEWS SERVICE 4 -6 HOURS TO UPDATE THERE THOUGHTS PEOPLE. wwa INSREAD OF wsw around 3 or so will bew downgraded.
You’ll Be Back : )
I try to walk away all the time!
Why is everyone so back and forth? I know we are going to get some rain out of this in the front of the system, but we are going to get some snow too. Even the NWS in Jackson said we could still expect between 3-6 inches in Harlan, and that was updated at like 10:00-ish. I really love snow just like all of you, which why I read this blog. But honestly, the heavy wet snow we are talking about will cause major problems with a couple of inches. I am glad we are only expecting 3-6 now, because more than that and we could be experiencing even WORSE problems!!! Just thought I would throw in my two cents, lol!
Hey thanks for posting that paper! Very interesting and good information!
MikeM, please don’t turn this weather blog into a political match, no room for it and very unwanted!!
MikeM, please don’t turn this weather blog into a political match, no room for it and very unwanted!!
Yeah, I know, Just joking around. I’ve been here a long time, since WKYT days, I just don’t post much.
It’s starting to rain in London.
already a mix near paducah area, this storm will dump 6 to 10 inches over north central ky today, be prepared! huge surprises! snow will start in kentucky by 5 pm!!!
I’m lost… I dont know what to do, but I know Kentucky never gets big snow so im not gonna spit that data out and let all the other models make fun of me!
New Tweet all still looks good.
By north central Ky are we saying the Louisville area? I saw the mix near Paducah area. Haven’t heard anything from our local mets or NWS office if this is supposed to pan out?
If it does, we are all in trouble. That much wet snow will knock out alot of power!! I’ve been getting this gut feeling the past 24 hrs that the Louisville area would get in on this event. Usually, this is the type of storm that surprised MET’s and others who think they have the knowledge to predict how dynamic cooling is really going to or not going to affect the snowfall amounts. It’s silly to say we don’t have a chance at something descent. Even Brian Goode is getting interested in this event. He hasn’t made a call on anything. But, point being, yesterday, he didn’t have much to say and really felt it was a storm for East Kentucky. Can’t wait to see how it all plays out.
Great if they are right! Husband just left town to work n Dayton for the week. Nothing like being snowed in with a toddler and worrying about losing power. Thanks for the info!
Surprised given the proximity of the system that CB has not posted or tweeted in so long.
that precip shield is starting to flirt with kentucky..This should get interesting really quick. Who wants to bet bailey is thinking big snow?
Well, this storm is keeping everyone guessing, isn’t it? Well, I got my bread and milk just in case.
He tweeted 17 mins ago bubba 😉
Where did you see that? The only thing I saw said 2-4 for Lex.
You leave Rolo alone… HEY! That was a shot at me too. Bad form!
No snow for you!
I am actually on the west side of London and the sun is out and 45 degrees, feels warmer than that outside. 🙂
I can not see it. Went to get lunch and the 12hr ago one was still there when I left.
Do you ever sleep?
Wouldn’t it be ironic if the so called “garbage” Canadian and JMA models ended up getting this one right!?!
I’m in Ashland.
Things continue to look good for a heavy, wet snowfall for much of the state late tonight and wednesday. 21 minutes ago · reply
Ive replied twice but been moderated. Should be this afternoon since warning is for 12 hours before the event. So really anytime now.
There are areas just north of Lex that are showing up pink on the radar. Light mix already?
It was a joke, I love ROLO but his typing skills sometimes makes you wonder. Also it wasn’t at all directed towards you in any way. It was all in good fun.
ROLL TIDE!!!!!!! Like why don’t you roll onto another blog!!!!
Even a broken watch is right twice a day… Not saying that is the case here, but until this is all said and done, can’t rule ANYTHING out.
From NMS Jackson:
What does this mean? WXman, mitch,Larkin,MJ anyone…..
Need the question right? lol
THE CONCERN HERE…IS THAT THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE NOT CATCHING ON
TO THE QUICK APPROACH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND EVEN WITHIN
24 HOURS OUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MESOSCALE PARAMETERS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES…THERE IS STILL A LOT OF CONCERN FOR
SNOWFALL…AT THE VERY LEAST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WAS CONTINUED.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lmk&storyid=63106&source=0
Two low..One now in Bama and the other will develope later out of the Gulf into the Carolinas and up the east coast, somewhere, The majority of wintry precip will not fall until the second low, which will pull the first on into it, moves up later this evening..I still see SEK getting 4-8 with lighter amounts northwest to the river…
He was pretty adamant yesterday that the metro was NOT getting anything. Especially after someone posted CB’s snow map on his facebook page– wow.
Then he posted he wasnt keeping up with the models cause he was spending time with family and friends…. now he posted he has a meeting at nws.
I dunno, he seems kinda on the wrong track and not admitting it yet if you ask me— but, what do I know….I’m just a snow luver. 🙂
Thanks and moderation stinks 🙂
No one knows. you are asking a question that is impossible to answer. Just try to relax and let things play out a bit. The future will crystalize soon enough
so when does the gfs and other models come out to she if there was any shift?
I think he is but is really afraid to drop the hammer yet. We have been missed in all directions since the dusting of 98 and everybody has about given up on a thumper. But this has the makings if they come together. Ackerman may have done his best Brian Collins impression this morning when he shrugged off the notion of a big snow….
Lou. area will be left in the cold with a dusting at best. Only way we get anything worth talking about is if the second low tracks up the spine or to the west of the Apps. I don’t see that happening…THINK SNOW…
Are you seeing things Tim lol?????? We all have to laugh so we won’t cry lol. Come down to Pikeville temp 45.I will hope till Chris says not to.Why is it when we do get a big slug of moisture our temps shoot up????
Looking at the wunderground regional map, the nearest sub freezing temps are still up near Indianpolis. we’ve got a pretty good wait until our temps dive down enough to make a difference. It’s been stuck at 39 in Berea for several hours.
Most places in the central KY region are hovering around 40 give or take a degree or two.
I think yo9u mean NWS Jackson instead of NMS, if NWS means National Weather Service and Jackson means it’s in Jackson, KY I hope that answered your question.
I always joke, so there you go 🙂
From what I gather, the track is potentially setup to deliver snow if the temperatures cooperate. I may be wrong but the way I am taking it is coordination is key from what I’m hearing. Hope this helps 🙂
This sounds promising!!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1211 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
.SHORT TERM…/THE REST OF TODAY/
THE UPDATE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO ADDRESS THE
QUICK APPROACH OF THE RAIN SHIELD INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE HAVE UPDATED AND BUMPED UP THE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND ALSO INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. THE
LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE GULF AND
INTENSIFYING…INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS HAS BEEN VERY EVIDENT AS OBSERVATIONS IN TENNESSEE AND INTO
OUR SITES IN MONTICELLO AND MIDDLESBORO AS DEW POINTS HAVE JUMPED 4
TO 5 DEGREES IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THEREFORE…ALSO HAVE INCREASED
DEW POINTS AND MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL.
THE CONCERN HERE…IS THAT THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE NOT CATCHING ON
TO THE QUICK APPROACH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND EVEN WITHIN
24 HOURS OUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MESOSCALE PARAMETERS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES…THERE IS STILL A LOT OF CONCERN FOR
SNOWFALL…AT THE VERY LEAST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WAS CONTINUED.
You’re welcome. The other part of what I said is that it could become an advisory or a warning, or a combination of the two. It depends on how much the forecast changes.
Yea, I’ve made posts to Brian and to WxExtra about this same ‘feeling’…I woke up yesterday @ 5:45am and around 7, I was shopping @ Walmart for all the goodies I’ll need for what I am thinking will be a VERY NICE storm with copious amts of snow falling pretty much on the whole state @ some point.:)
Ashlie, my hubby just flew out too (major carrier) and I’m here with 3 girls, ages 4,2,& 3 mo’s, plus 3 dogs and 3 cats…ALONE…lol! Not sure how I feel about that yet! I guess that’s why the endless supply of spaghetti o’s, ravioli, chicken noodles soup,and hot dogs (for the dogs!):)
Well, here is the latest GFS run…this is getting awfully interesting for us West Liberty folks!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
This gave me goose bumps or as my 4 yr old says “duck bites” LOL Bring on the snow!!!
The models are having a tough time capturing how fast northward the rain shield is going. With temps above freezing, rain is likely this afternoon/evening. Colder temperatures are found aloft (higher elevations), thus it could end up snowing in the higher elevations and rain in the valleys.
Ok, good to know I am not alone! :o)Just waiting to see what happens myself? If we don’t get much of anything with this storm,there is another ‘something’ going on early next week. And he’ll be in Dayton again. Yay! We have all the soups, crackers, bread and p-nut butter too. Don’t mind being here in the snow as long as we have electricity!!! Playing the wait and see game now! BOTS!
I’m in the Keavy area – (upper south-central part of the county) and it’s still sprinkling rain here and no sun.
This will be a pretty big let down for most, if not all folks across Central KY, and the more I look the more it appears to be a pretty big let down for most. Temps not cold enough to do anything significant. My bold predictions….
Pikeville – 2-4 inches
Lexington – dusting-1 inch
Louisville – nothing
dynamic cooling
Dave, be reminded that this GFS snow map covers a 5-day period and includes a clipper-type system moving this way in a few days. Therefore, not all snow amounts posted on this map may be expected with this single event.
very true…i would imagine a great majority is from the upcoming storm, but yes…it is a 5 day picture.
And for those that don’t understand dynamic cooling it is cooling that results from decreasing pressure. Because the pressure gradient is much stronger in the vertical than in the horizontal, dynamic changes will bring the cold air down from aloft. That’s my understanding, if anyone else with more knowledge has a better explanation? I still don’t think this will happen until well after midnight tonight.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1212 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY TODAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY…
ON TO THE WINTER STORM…AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY WITH THE EVENING
UPDATE PACKAGE…THE MAJORITY OF 0Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST
WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WELL ADVERTISED
EAST COAST STORM. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK WILL BE OF MOST CONCERN
TO OUR AREA WITH MOST MODELS CONVERGING ON A TRACK THROUGH TN/NORTH
GULF STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN TO THE NC/VA REGION BY WED
EVENING. A TROWAL STRUCTURE AND GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LOOK
TO SET UP TO THE NNE OF THE UPPER LOW. CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE
COUPLET…FRONTOGENESIS MAX…AND NOSE OF THE NEGATIVE EPV WOULD
SUGGEST HEAVY BANDED SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER EAST CENTRAL KY
AND INTO EASTERN KY. THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 PLUS INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
THERE FOR SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA…THUS WILL ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH STARTING AT 3Z TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME
VARIABILITY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS HEAVY BAND OF PRECIP SO
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT TODAY AS PLAIN RAIN OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM S TO N THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE
WATCH STARTS AT 3Z DUE TO SNOW STARTING IN THE WESTERN WATCH
COUNTIES AROUND THIS TIME…PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KY WON/T SEE
THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER…WHEN
THE CHANGE OVER HAPPENS IT WILL BE FAST AND FURIOUS ESPECIALLY IN
THE 6Z TO 12Z TIME RANGE. A HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS IN AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE WATCH WITH
SOUTHERN INDIANA MISSING OUT ON MOST OF THE SNOW. AN ADVY MAY BE
ISSUED LATER FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KY. THERE WILL
DEFINITELY BE A SHARP CUT OFF OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
SOME WHERE AROUND OR JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
one thing, though. the 5-day for our area (West Liberty) does NOT show any more snow for us…so…that MAY be all from this storm.
So I’ve never been moderated until now. Why does it go to moderation?
I suppose it wont be that bad if the rain comes but then cools down enough to lay a nice blanket of snow down. 1″ or 9″ is ok in my books. Would just hate to see the snow laid down and then only to have rain wash it away.
*** No snow = Wait till next system
*** All Rain = Thumb Down
*** Snow then Rain = Two thumbs down
*** Rain then Snow = Thumbs up
*** All Snow = Two Thumbs up
Depending on where you live in KY I think here in Central KY we have had a nice time with the snows that we have had. I would much rather have them like this rather like it has been the several years. Praying for a Dumping of snow.
Many MANY weeks ahead for us all to get hit with the bullseye !!
I suppose it wont be that bad if the rain comes but then cools down enough to lay a nice blanket of snow down. 1″ or 9″ is ok in my books. Would just hate to see the snow laid down and then only to have rain wash it away.
*** No snow = Wait till next system
*** All Rain = Thumb Down
*** Snow then Rain = Two thumbs down
*** Rain then Snow = Thumbs up
*** All Snow = Two Thumbs up
Depending on where you live in KY I think here in Central KY we have had a nice time with the snows that we have had. I would much rather have them like this rather like it has been the several years. Praying for a Dumping of snow.
Many MANY weeks ahead for us all to get hit with the bullseye !!
And for those that don’t understand dynamic cooling it is cooling that results from decreasing pressure. Because the pressure gradient is much stronger in the vertical than in the horizontal, dynamic changes will bring the cold air down from aloft. That’s my understanding, if anyone else with more knowledge has a better explanation? I still don’t think this will happen until well after midnight tonight.
I don’t see pressure dropping enough to drop the temps that significantly. Mostly rain, very little snow, but that’s just this old guy’s opinion which ain’t worth much!
My thinking for the Boyle County area.
Tuesday night 11:59pm- Wednesday 10am
Mixed precip with up to 2 inch snow/ice.
Advisory level. But I agree this storm offers potential for surprises more so than any thus far this season.
You said “knickers”!
I agree, and just to clarify I think a few have been asking… dynamic cooling is when the pressure drops creating a stronger vertical pressure gradient that essentially brings cold air aloft down. That’s my understanding anyways, hopefully I’m not way off… feel free to chime in with your take on dynamic cooling.
Im going out on and saying it, this will be a Central Ky storm.
Just listened to my weather radio from Jackson and now it is saying 3-6 for some east Ky counties Pike being one.Said the snow would not change over till 12 or 1pm tommorow oh well.I will wait to see what Chris says.I am going to the store and run other errands when I come back you better have all this figured out j/k lol.
Not taking anything away from Chris, of course, but BG just updated on FB. 🙂
I still think we’re going to get slammed, regardless of what anyone says.
Thanks!
Question is- where? 😉
Seems unless some form of cooling takes place, the bigger totals CB posted for far east & se KY may be a about half, since below freezing after a lot of the precip has moved out.
Always expected rain to be a factor, but the temps seem warmer (in general) than I expected.
My thoughts were 25% rain and 75% heavy snow, while some fellow bloggers were thinking almost all snow. The rate things are going and with current temps, 25% might be a best case scenario.
For a lot of folks, it could be 50% or worse with rain. Somebody call up Mr. Dynamic Cooling and tell them to get here fast! 🙂 😉
the low isnt close enough yet to start dropping temps.
Given the temps and southern areas taking longer to catch up, that “might” turn out correct.
Seems for whatever totals we might get, central KY might-possibly-maybe-perhaps be in the sweet spot due to the combination of precip flow and temperatures. Not a big snow, but perhaps more or equal to areas in the south-east that should have got the motherload.
I messed up, since expected temps to be about 5 degrees cooler at this time. A lot of extra temp range to cover, which cuts into totals.
Yes, a bunch of caveats in this post 😉
Frankly, Drath Bubba says 75% rain and 25% snow and Luke Bubba says 25% rain and 75% snow.
50/50 chance ATM.
redneck rolo but he nowecasting spot on rain till noon tomm.lol 2 inches maybe be pushes in s and se ecpt for border mt counties. lex central get 3 inches may 4 with quicker change over.
why u dont see BAILEY updating cause he is confused and bot of the METS now mych but that tit going rain alot longer than they thought when they put ut there snow totals.
I think we have a good chance of getting more here in LOU than anyone is saying? Maybe that’s just wishful dreaming. But I think this is just one crazy storm that is toying with everyone. There will be some surprises I think! Where is anyone’s game at this point! :o)
winter storm warning for all of central tennessee, time will tell!
nws said heaviest totals will setup between etown to bwg to lex, check out the mix to snow already starting paducah to owensboro! way early! even before dynamic cooling begins!!! this is great!
The nam showed us in Bath at 6-8 inches like an hour ago and now like 1-2. What a waffle!
Hey guys!
Those of you which know me personally know that i have already been dealing with my own child’s bad behavior. They were simply pretty much driving me insane at all times, some know what to do or perhaps what to say to them. 2-3 weeks ago my spouse and i finally made a decision to get to the bottom part of it and discover a solution that would work. My partner and i searched each and every website and blog i could possibly find on the subject and finally i found the best solution. In the event that any of you are having equivalent issues with your own children you can PM me. Upon second believed i will only give you the websites i came across on the topic so that you can possibly read it and repair your child too.
Thanks for reading my rant.
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le message Incomparable, m’est intГ©ressant 🙂
E ‘interessante. Tell me, ti invitiamo – dove posso trovare maggiori informazioni su questo argomento?