Good evening gang. I know I promised to get a first call out this evening… but I wanted to do the right thing and wait on the evening runs before making a premature call on a tricky storm. As you know… I have been saying over and over this storm would likely be coming farther west than many models were showing… especially the NAM and GFS.
The new NAM is in and confirms my suspicions. The model now puts much of central Kentucky into the mix for POSSIBLE significant snows…
Tuesday Night
Wednesday Morning
Wednesday Afternoon
Wednesday Evening
If you take the model on face value… it shows heavy wet snow from west Tennessee into much of central and eastern Kentucky.
I still don’t think the model is showing enough linkage with the moisture along the east coast and the moisture across our region. The upper levels on this run of the NAM continue to improve and that is something I started seeing in the model last night.
This run is backed up by the 21z SREF which also took the precip shield pretty far to the west.
There is a method to my madness, my friends! 
Let’s see how the rest of the models trend tonight. I promise I will have a first call out with my next update. 
Take care.
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COOL! We’ll see what happens 🙂
And Chris, your many, many fans will be waiting to see what your methods reveal in regards to this storm! 🙂 Thank you for all that you – especially all the care you take in making sure to get this “right.” It is appreciated!
Is East Ky out of the heavier snow?
It’s getting better and better.
More than likely with the western movement even heavier.
We are waiting on pins and needles!
Snowcat even heavier for who???? It is so nerve racking lol.
Crystal, CB did not say anything about totals decreasing anywhere.
Ok… Now I am confused. Is southeastern Ky still in this storm?
Wow! This is fun! Love tracking a Ky. snowstorm. Thanks Chris. You the man!
west is best
If Chris pulls this off and I mean central KY, He will be a legend.
So. The way I take it….Southeastern part of the state is GOING to get hit, Right?
how long before WXman gets on here and says it’s NOT coming west? Sorry, I had to. It’s all in fun…anyway, copy and paste this link in a new tab. It’s the 21z SREF CB was talking about. This is just for the time period 4pm Tues-4pm Wed. Actual totals would be higher if you add in any snowfall past this time period. Still has Lou area in the 2-4″ range now! Better than a dusting, right?
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/sref/21zsrefp24_MW048.gif
Thanks Chris! I will never get my weather from any other source as long as this blog is online. You are DA MAN!!! Lovin the westward trend!
there we go NAM!!! I will be updating my forecast as well soon, so check the site! So will larkin, and im sure a few others. Click our names
Bubba, plenty to share is right. Feel like neighbors and I feel your pain.
Don’t forget to include predictions for far western Kentucky. We here on the western tip love snow, too, and want to know when it’s headed our way!
Wow,looked to me like central ky would get more than the eastern part?
This could be the one that busts all the snow dome talk! I would love for that to happen so that we don’t have to hear that phrase for at least another 10 years. Had someone tell me today “they aren’t even talking about snow on NOAA, it isn’t going to snow.” This is looking like it will be a memorable snow for most of us!, Same scenario with our last major snow over 10 years ago, NOAA calls for rain, then 2-4, then 4-10, then…
So whats the call for Bath and Rowan Counties? I noticed everyone to our south is in the watch
Im ready to see what the GFS says!
Well, how many of us are going to go to bed and be like a child on Christmas Eve tonight? (Waiting on that first call map) Hope it gets us all!
Starting to get quite exciting for us in Lou!
I don’t think so, the moisture will stop not be all the way to EKY by that time and as CB says I don’t think it is showing all the east coast moisture either.
When does the GFS come out?
Got an update, if your interested.
can someone tell me how to calculate the precip to inches?
Chris, Lincoln, Larkin, Mitch, MJ: Do any of you think a watch will be issued for Central Ky.?
What time can we expect the GFS model run? thanks
IMO, yes.
Bet the local mets in louisville are scratching there head right now??
That link never works. Are you teasing the fellow bloggers. YOU FLIRT!
It is usually a 1:10 ratio…1″ of rain/liquid precip equals 10″ of snow….you can look at the precip models, add the precip amts with each map, then calculate, for instance. .50 of precip would translate to around 5″ of snow…hope this helps!!!
Well darn it. I was hoping for another Berea snow day!
Multiply the precipitation forecast by the snow ratio. For example, the usual snow ratio is 10:1 (10 inches of snow per 1 inch of precip), so if you were to receive .50″ of precip you would receive 5″ of snow.
Yes it does! thank you and WOW!
When when when is it all gonna start?
You have to copy and paste the link to make it work.
WSW will be issued by morning IMO. Personally I think Lexington is setting up more and more for the bullseye if you watch the low currently, where the majority of moisture is on first 6 hour run of NAM, and where that is tracking, its setting up pretty well for Lex. I am not a master like CB though so we’ll see with his next update.
So does this mean that there is a chance for more rain in the south/east or is that still out of the question????
Thanks for the info man. Site looks good as well. I’m sure CB likes to see other people’s thoughts and ideas to supplement his.
Does anyone know when the next model run will come out?
to late for that he already is a Legend
Thinking out loud. No particular model has had a dominate season. It seems each model taken turns on being reliable.
Have become totally addicted to this website!!! I always followed Chris’ blog when he was at WKYT, so glad a friend told me about this site! BRING ON THE SNOW!!!
I hope your right cause I’m in Lex.
Kandy, I am not a pro, but I think if it starts as rain or a mix then the changeover should occur during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.
I was under the impression that the farther west this thing goes, the more we get in East KY. I could be wrong.
What she said….and also, what I said in my post. Sorry about the inconvenience. But, if you do this, it will work =-)
GFS is running now…
below is a link to see the statud of the model output:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/
Thanks man!!!
Haha! Exactly what I was thinking!! You know they are…If the GFS trends west they will really have a deer in a headlight look.
True
Oh GFS please follow your big brother, NAM!
Oh GFS, follow your big brother, NAM!
so somebody help me!! can i have some thoughts for the lou area? im kinda gettin excited again..
Hopefully it keeps moving west and all of KY get a big snow!
“status” I meant to type. This is a great link to check the time of any AMERICAN forecast models. Remember, all times posted are UTC. Eastern Standard time is UTC minus 5 hours. Hope this helps anyone tying to time model releases or check model status.
If you want my thoughts, then click my name.
What are your thoughts on new GfS model?
Done the Grocery Store thing today. Glad I got that over with.
Hope everyone gets as much snow as they want & remember be careful when you are out drivin’ or playin’ in the snow….
Thanks Chris for the updates
Very smart!
Thanks for your input I hope your right I just noticed the freezing line on the first runs of the nam was really on the edge!!
what she said…and what he said about what he said in his post.
Not sure yet. Only 6 hours out.
exactly…haha
My latest thoughts are in the latest Louisville AFD.
Love this website Chris Bailey! Recommend it to everyone! Can’t wait to see the newest updates and tweets! It is awesome! It makes anticipating the snow so fun and exciting!
Would Cynthiana be included in “central Ky”?
Im interested as to why “The Voice of Reason” has not updated his blog at all about the impending weather ahead. MAybe he will call for a CKY “dusting” 🙂
I hope someone has a roll of paper towels or a box of tissues…LOL….get ready for the naysaying from the gfs…lol…
I know this is a Kentucky weather site, but I love this forum….I’m only about 30 miles from the northern border of KY near Covington…any chance of SW Ohio getting in on some action if the snow shield is going to spread into central and western KY?
agree 100% made many of same points today down here on campus with many people skeptical down here in BWG.
Starting tomorrow there will be a 5 cent charge for every post.
Count me in…..I want a BIG snow in Versailles!! It has been too long. Can’t wait to see CB’s first call map….and better yet a final map with 10 or more inches of snow on it would be awesome!
Count me in…..I want a BIG snow in Versailles!! It has been too long. Can’t wait to see CB’s first call map….and better yet a final map with 10 or more inches of snow on it would be awesome!
WHAT???????? Tell me you are kidding!! What do you know?!!
Actually, GFS is looking good so far with the new run. Still goin west from what I can see! Its still finishing its run…but the 48hr runs are done. Looking better and better for SNOW in CKY!
The Voice of Reason is doing his usual stunt of waiting until after the event has passed, then spinning things and saying he was right all along. Sad to watch really.
I’ve been reading Bailey’s blog since the good old days when he was on WKYT and have been patiently waiting for the BIG one. So, the week that I’m in San Diego for a training class it is just my luck that y’all get the smackdown while I’m out here enjoying the 70’s and sunshine. Save some snow for me when I get back on Friday evening!
The Lex forecasters are now talking about how complicated the storm is and now they are not sure how much we will get! Go West!!!
Even The Voice Of Reason is coming around…..amazing how much later than Chris, as he has been talking about this storm for several days now!
I updated so anyone looking for any answers check my website!!! But seriously just click my name.
did i just hear “TVoR” said he expects the watch to be expanded to lexington area
whats Knox Co looking to get??
what do you guys think estill county will get???
Probably snow
Who is TVoR?
snow
9.9 inches
6.2 inches
The NWS Jackson will for sure have to change the snowfall map they have. Louisville is already changing their story and are saying 3″ – 4″ for their southern counties.
The Voice of Reason ( a lex Met.)
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…. (**doing a happy dance**)
No other local met is talking about snow here, have ruled it out, nada, none, not a dusting, rain maybe, LMAO.
Chris, you are one smart cookie. 🙂
Thats why I make the comment that CB is the one I trust the most. You take everything into consideration, and explain it all to us. Thanks for your time and all your effort, YOU are the one who deserves a break. 😉
did anyone catch TVoR’s futurecast map? Bubba. you will get 5″. SE KY will get an inch. Lex will get 3.5″. i laughed. what a dork. i would be embarrased to show that map.
Does his name rhyme with Pill Check?
Thxs for the site,weather junkies can’t get enough of this stuff..Really like the site,im sitting in the 8-12 range..
Here is the link to the 00Z 25 Jan NAM Snowfall Forecast Model. I will stay up and post the 00Z GFS 25 Jan Snowfall Model once it has updated.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
Has it really been reliable this year?
… WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT…
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING… BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* ON AVERAGE… STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF BETWEEN 4 AND 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE KENTUCKY AND VIRGINIA STATE LINE.
* ANY SNOW THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO BE WET AND HEAVY. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS… AND POSSIBLY DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES THAT MAY SUCCUMB TO THE WEIGHT OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
More Information
… LARGE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BRING HEAVY WET SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY…
.A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WILL SEND A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS OVERRIDING MOISTURE WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND ON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME SLEET COULD ALSO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES. IN ADDITION… ANY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES WHEN THE SNOW FALLS… AND A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO COULD GREATLY AFFECT FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS.
I have to admit good job there Mr. Bailey waiting to see how much wet snow your thinking ..
a slight shift west an this easily is a central ky storm.
This is looking more and more like the storm from 1998. East coast low, upper level low develops west, and now I have jinxed the whole package.
hey! shut your mouth!! LOL!
Stop wishing this away from East KY. >:(
I agree Matt I am in Pikeville I want to keep ours but wish all snow lovers in the state that wants it gets theirs too.I have a feeling we are in for a wild ride here in East Ky.
Oh no I just noticed 666 is the last 3 numbers in my security at top lol I better go crawl under the bed lol.
I love the weather and study it all the time and it continues to amaze me at how a very slight shift can make such a big change. I trust Chris with the weather more than I do other’s and I knew he would be right and after looking at these maps I would not be surprised one bit if it shifts even more morning. Everything IS setting up and I think we are due a big storm.
Just want everyone to know this is a sincere comment the tracking of this system by CB has been impressive and this has not been a cooperative system with the models – good job
Hey, CKY!! Stop taking my snow!! D:
Jim C still 6-10 inches eastren kentucky.
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php
Another tool for your veiwing pleasure until the next update..
scroll down until you see “Snow, Rain, Ice Pellets, & Freezing Rain”..click on GIF or java and look at all the pretty blue..Now if all that green would turn to snow early?
Sorry lol. I am not excited yet for our prospects in Central KY, but my interest has perked quite highly. I want to see the 06Z and 12Z model runs later this morning, and have time to watch the moisture movement to our southwest.
For those of you in the Louisville NWS forecast area, a special weather statement has been issued concerning this storm.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/
I hope everyone is starting to prepare for this storm whether it turns out bad or not. It’s always best to keep food stocked up,flash lights and etc. We don’t control the weather but we can control how we will prepare for it 🙂
Berea, KY Weather Advisories, Watches & WarningsWINTER STORM WATCH
in effect until Thursday, Jan 27, 1:00 AM…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT…
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT…BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* ON AVERAGE…STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* ANY SNOW THAT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO BE WET AND HEAVY. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS…AND POSSIBLY DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES THAT MAY SUCCUMB TO THE WEIGHT OF THE HEAVY WET SNOW.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
We shall see……Cant wait to see what Chris says!! BUT it’ll have to wait until morning, because I am the “weak” that he speaks of when it comes to sleeping!
my latest thoughts are 2-4 bwg,lex 4-8 for somerset and jackson with 3-5 in ashland. click name for more.
Come on Chris……want to see your thoughts on snowfall before I go to bed.
I have to agree. Your site looks nice and love how you can click on the map to view it. Much much easier !!!
Keep up the good work
I am saying the same thing lol
Everyone in my family makes fun of me following this site. But who do they ask about the weather….. me. So thanks Chris and fellow bloggers. I hope you are right about this Snow!
Here is the 00Z 120 Hr GFS Snowfall Map.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=JKL
you can use this link too to see
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/tables/snowfall-meltwater.html
take the temp in consideration ect….
Nice one Duke. Nice name too
I guess with someone asking a simple question you had to throw in a smart ### remark.
Nothing nice to say then just leave it. But I suppose all things will get moderated.
Take care and have a good night!!!
That don’t look like much of a snowfall amount to me?..4-6 inches…I was under the impression the way everbody’s been talking we was getting close to a foot in eastern ky..confused as ever as the hours keep going by..
I will be updating my snowfall map in the morning. Lex will be uped in the ammount
Nope…sorry. That was a very different system than this.
Louisville solidly in the ‘ ya get NO snow baby’ pink shade… 🙁
According to the NWS, all of Kentucky has a hazardous weather statement, WSW, etc., except for Greenup, Boyd, and Carter counties. Yup, red-headed stepchildren syndrome. LOL
YES! Things keep looking up for London. I still think these totals are low…but this wont be a 10:1 snow…have to keep that in mind.
Calm down folks, some may be blowing this event a tad out of proportion. Seems the system is being manifested into a monster and premature gloating does not help the perspective. Kind of like a certain Gatorade incident at a KY/LSU game, BEFORE the game was over 😉
Will admit the system appears to be going in the right direction, but snow totals can not be assumed in direct proprotion, even if the trend holds. Still, looks on the positive side ATM.
Darth Bubba bids you peace 🙂 😉
Mitch you cut me down to 3-5 lol,what makes you think we will get lower totals in Pikeville.