Good Monday Evening everyone. A Winter Storm Watch is now out for parts of eastern and southeastern Kentucky for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Things continue to progress nicely toward a heavy, wet snowstorm for parts of our region.
I am keeping the threat map as is because there is still some wiggle room for this storm to come farther west. As of now… here is where the watch is…
The HPC places risk areas for 4″ or more of snow and their map for Tuesday night and Wednesday matches up pretty good with my threat map…
The afternoon run of the NAM is finally starting to catch up to the rest of the modeling world. The GFS continues to moisten things up as well and is doing so farther west.
I will have a First Call for Snowfall map out later this evening. Take care.
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first?
First?
Thanks for the updates, CB…
That map says Warning, though…is that correct?
oh yeah, first time for me! can anyone post these new models cb is referring to? We still are not at ALERT mode and within 24 hrs of the event, not too promising
I feel like there will more snow in central ky than what everyone is thinking.
third?
I would assume with no rapid fire tweets or chat, that CB is not thinking this will be too much of a storm for 90% of KY
I keep hearing it is going farther west with more moisture every update, but the maps don’t look any different to me.
Bell Co >>>>>>>> 8-10″ of HEAVY WET SNOW
I sure hope we get enough snow in Madison county to call of classes at EKU. I have a huge test that day and would love to have it postponed until friday. Hope we all get a decent snowfall out of this with no power outages. Thanks for the update CB. You should consider coming back to lex. : )
DOH!
Anyone noticed the NWS projected low track…it has shifted to coast?? How can that be when all the models have been shifting it further west??
Nah… I am just slammed right now with my tv job and two blogs. 😉
Your right that’s exactly why he has more than 45% of the state at a moderate risk for winter storm threat
I will have to hand it to Jay Cardosi in Lou. He is the ONLY MET that gave the forecast a chance for a further north and west track and the possibility of measurable snow in Lou area. Other stations still sticking with dusting at best in Louisville. Still going with 3+” right now for Lou-Lex. areas. More in Lex of course.
Briefly looking at the SREF seems the trend is moving the winter precip shield westward to include Danville/Lex area for the daylight hours of wed with accum. Probably only Advisory levels as of now.
Thoughts?
Thanks for the reply Chris! Looking forward to updates tonite! BY 90% of the state, i meant measuring snow in the feet.
Hahahaha! Good one, Chris! I was ready to say the same thing about you…seeing you on WSAZ just moments ago doing your JOB!
Give the man a break, people! 🙂
Look at my site it really displays the shift well,…just click my name.
I’m in Harlan Co–us southeasterners have had the sweet spot all winter!! 🙂
Slowly but surely were getting there. I agree michealp
Just saw Jim C. first call and if that’s all for most parts then that’s a lot of hype for 3-6 inches with 1-3 stretching from north clay to the madison, fayette area. There was a 6-10 but it was for extreme se ky and he said not to get caught up in that because that was for the highest elevations.
Right now, Lexington’s WLEX weather page states “At this point it appears as though rain will change over to snow by midday Wednesday with some accumulation possible on Wednesday afternoon.”
Could this be any more vague? I would assume that “some accumulation possible” would encompass 60% of every day of winter. The fear of being wrong makes local TV weather almost obsolete. If you want the current temp I guess that’s your place. This blog has real information. Thanks CB.
Because the models are not shifting west. I haven’t seen one model that’s gone west of what it showed 24 hours ago. Most of them keep the precip in east KY and Louisville looks to get a literal dusting at best.
If the system moves a little more north and west is it possible for SE KY to get less snow due to some rain/mix?
I find it odd that Madison Co. is not in the watch/warning considering that several bordering counties are. When looking at the map for the watches, it would have to snow in Madison for it to snow in some of the other counties. Berea is probably a sure hit though for some of the action.
Why not settle for a nice snowfall without losing power, people stranded, lives lost? I’d be happy with that. Who wants the New York storms when ambulances could NOT get to people in time…? I just don’t understand the concept and idea here.
anything is possible right now!!
Are we 7 days away from any model prediction for a big snow storm to hammer central KY because the thought would thrill the crap out of me. The thought of each passing day watching the models take the big snow up the east coast or down south or up north is evidently what I live for.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Moderation. It’s killing me. I only hope there is another model prediction of a big snow storm 7 days away hammering central KY so I can relive this nightmare all over again.
Moderation,moderation,moderation
Basically, this is going to be a WET SNOW. Living in eastern ky, IT will not take much for electrifying ordeals for many.
Because it is where Darth Bubba resides 😉
Come live here, or shall I say, relive the nonsense during the last ice storm. Going weeks without electricity…losing everything! Try it.
Just started to rain here….dry all day until 5 minutes ago….42* 51% humidity
Timely questions:
1. Is CB and the NWS already extrapolating and assuming a continuing western trend? If yes, perhaps the current map and CB’s is best case?
2. If no, an additional trend west would mean more continued in the WSW.
Please do your best to mellow. You live where you live. Deal with the weather hand you have been or will be dealt. Save the dramatics for theatre class.
‘here’ is Clay’s Ferry
I understand your ZZZZZZZZZZZZ’s. You probably need a nap since all you do is comment on this blog.
me too–at Clay’s Ferry just up the road from you!
what is gfs doing?
Really WXman, the NAM isn’t going west?
Why don’t you just come out and say it…you disagree with CB’s assessment of the track trending west each run. He puts it in black and white and says he still can see a chance of more westward movement. Maybe, you are right. But, why would as respect of a MET as CB continue to tweet and update us of a further westwardly track, if it’s really NOT happening? By the way, latest 18z GFS snowfall map has Louisville area getting 1-3″. That’s the model that you seem to like. A dusting is being conservative. Especially when you say “at best”.
I can see Clay’s Ferry from my house!!
Latest 18z snowfall run for GFS has Lou and surrounding areas in the 1-3″ snowfall range. However, don’t tell that to WXman. He’s in a horrible mood today, because he agrees with absolutely nobody on here that says west of I-75 will get anything more than a dusting!
Light rain in Shelbyville.
Lol I agree, I think he might be upset about all the salt!! He hates salt on his jeep! 🙂
says he who is posting on this same blog
? for anybody..lets say storm shifts more to the west..Will snowfall amounts increse in the eastern part of the state or stay the same..I know it will mean more snow for citys like lex,just wondering if east ky would get more..
Even if it snows 3″ in lou.. This is going to be more of a nuisance than anything else. Streets should not become a major hazard. (Wet snow and salt)
Not 100 times a day as do ome.
i am just up the road from you guys! literally
I noticed that too! Haha. Hopefully he will get some snow in Lawrenceburg so he quits the mood swingin 😉 This just isn’t the optimistic Wxman we know and love 😉
BRING ON THE SNOW
No matter what comes along
Can you post the 18z snowfall map c-BIV?
Who poo’ed in your cheerios? Seriously, we haven’t had a snowstorm of good totals in years! For crying out loud you are on a weatherblog where the majority of the people LOVE snow. I respect everyone opinions and we all understand there are downsides to a big snowstorm, but no need to go NINJA on us. Geeze…
Did you guys catch the WSAZ news tonight? I’m asking because CB and Tony Cavalier made some predictions of the forecast ahead and although they work for the same station, had conflicting forecasts. I am so hoping CB is right because Jim Caldwell’s amounts are depressing!
you will more than likely have to copy and paste this into a new link, as they usually remote disable these. Also, I had to enlarge my screen to 200% because it’s really difficult to read the counties. Anyway, here you go…
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnow072.gif
I agree,been soooooo long since we seen a good thumping…Personaly dont think there will be many outages if any with the snowfall totals that some are giving..If we get 10 inches or more of wet snow in several counties then look out..
…and I’m just a tad south of you near Union City.
has the storm weakened??
Chris,
What time do you think you will be able to put out the snowfall map? I would love to see what you are predicting.
Who cares how many times someone post, it’s a weather blog with a comment section for a reason, by the way how many times did you post in the last couple of hours?
hey! don’t go ninjin’ no one that don’t need ninjin’!
Key question seems to be whether (no pun intended) CB and the NWS are already factoring an assumed continuation of the western trend in their forecast?
If yes: Folks are getting false hopes for improvement if the shift continues.
If no: More counties could be added IF a western shift continues.
Is CB already factoring a continued trend to the west? If so, folks more west may be getting false hopes even if the shift continues.
Anybody know?
Moderation nation.
Super close to Alaska eh?
Looking mighty juicy down in Louisiana!
It is a heavy burden for us living in the epicenter of the Big Snow D*** 😉
Sounds like on the 12z models tomorrow we should have a real clear picture on the storm. Just read on Henry M’s facebook that the NOAA is sending out a recon plane tonight into the storm to collect data. The data will be fed into the 12z models tomorrow.
We got a big ol’ crowd in the kentucky weather chat tonight, the big question is, how much rain will EKY receive before the snow starts? That will make our break us
Everyone is welcome to the chat by the way here is the link:
http://ekywx.com/kychat.htm
yup! Russia.
but really, just a couple miles up the hill from the clays ferry bridge.
Is there a better link than that? Thanks in advance.
7″ or more, look out.
No its not. Just because some of the models are swinging precip further westward does not imply a further westward track.
Hey Chris, I teach 7th graders and thought you’d like to know that one of my students told me about your site. We were discussing the chances for a snow day earlier in January and he said – and I quote, “Chris Bailey said we’re getting snow and he hasn’t been wrong yet.” Compliments from 12 year old boys are rare. Thanks for getting them to check something online besides their facebook 🙂
For those of you who are looking for the 18Z GFS Snowfall map, here is a link from Earl Barkers site.
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=JKL
I live under the Clay’s Ferry Bridge.
I see some minor fighting going on in the comments section 🙂 hahahahhah check out my website!
it never ceases to amazes me that some people can’t even find their county on a map. you clearly have your snow map up and people still can’t figure it out!
Thank you for all of your hardwork and dedication to the blog, Chris. We appreciate you! 🙂
I’m a Harlan gal transplanted to Somerset..we have NOT seen much snow…Soooo Harlan Co how about showing us some love so we can play in the snow too:)
It’s the upper-air low from this storm that is trended westwardly, which is why the precipitation shield is moving west, right? That is what he have to watch for, as far as unexpected snowfall potential.
In one of my freshman Geography courses at WKU, the prof. passed out a simple map of the United States and asked the students to find Kentucky. A handful of people in the class couldn’t find it. It’s pathetic…people don’t even know where they are on planet Earth.
http://www.youtube.com/user/Riddlesweather?feature=mhum
check this out!
Hardball!! I’ve been waiting for you to show up again. Can’t wait until your “backside hurts” when this storm doesn’t do squat for Louisville. 🙂 Then again, all you really care about it stirring the pot so who cares, right? Haha…
another NWS under wswatches now…all of the HUNTSVILLE AL…area under wsw. now with 2-4…locally higher amounts of snow, with winds gusting to 20-30 mph….can anyone say BLIZZARD CONDITIONS!!!…hmmmm and that my friend is headed to ky….:)
What’s with the hostility today? Love hearing your insight but you seem a little on edge today.
also, check this out. This guy made a video about riddlesweather, and it being on youtube.. its kinda cool watch the whole vid to see…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-M7ivKqUWB4&feature=autofb
I agree. There are no words
Clays Ferry here too at exit 97.
Exit 97 at Clays Ferry Bridge here. here.
I don’t start ’em… I just finish ’em. 😉
As far as the other comments, it just gets old telling people 15 times that the storm is CLEARLY not going to pound central KY. It’s a fish storm and the mountains is where the snow is going to be.
when will CB update his blog again? anyone know?
Thanks Michael! Much appreciated!
What is CB’s other blog?
What does the weather look like for the rest of January and into February?
wsaz.com
No worries for Madison county folks. Geographically challenged or not, we just look for the county with low snow forecasts and no warnings 🙂
need another fix, huh? starting to get the shakes? soon, my friend, soon.
look for a calm pereiod after this stoem goes by.
The other blog is the tv blog. WSAZ.com it is basically the same.
1st I remember the March 93 storm starting out with prediction like this, all rain, 1-3 of snow at most, and so on. I ended up with 30 inches. 2nd this place is getting to be who can make who mad. My question is if you already know so much about what is going to happen why waste your time here? It is obvious you don’t need any info from CB because you already know everything. Sounds like my kids. Your not going to get a pat on the back if you are right because no one knows you or cares if you were right or wrong. This is Bailey’s blog we come here to get his views and talk about it. If you want people to recognize your great abilities start a blog yourself or post your views and let it go. But to continue to change or say how no one else knows but you do because of whatever is really getting old. Now of my soapbox and it is time to get ready for some snow. If any of you do start your own blog let me know I’d like to check it out as well. LOL I do like to hear your views as well as long as they are posted and let go and not posted as a reply to everyone that feels differently. Guess I wasn’t done yet. Sorry.
Hey Jadie, how is DC
Have to ask Wxman what are your thoughts for East Ky and what is a Fish storm first time I heard that?
lol … so true!
WXman!! For years I have loved reading this blog and part of the reason is because of reading your insight into storms and systyems in general..But lately you have had a huge chip on your shoulder man. Just wish you would chill..BTW..
WXman wrote:
“00Z NAM still goes to sea with it. I think there’s going to be a lot of hurt feelings when we get nothing from this storm.”
What does Louisville have to do with this?
Also I think Chris B. was the one (pretty sure)back on WKYT blog who said meteorologists need to be careful with their language and not use words and phrases which imply one and only one outcome and that language like that can bite you in the backside..Thats where my comment orginanted from. Fiqured you would know that, sorry.
I saw you at 5 on Wsaz and they were kidding you about coloring all the colors on the maps.I enjoy the Broadcast.You sure have a great Crew.
Just to clarify, didn’t say you started anything, just a little on edge. You could be right but it is your opinion, people might have a different opinion. The storm is just now developing in Louisiana, who knows for sure. Your educated opinion is usually pretty close to what happens, but no weatherman can say for sure what will happen in 24-48 hours. Again I love hearing yours and all the other educated peoples GUESSES, keep it up.
BOOM goes the dynamite, well said. Couldn’t agree more. If you already know, why are you here?
Thank you for the update, Chris. It’ll be interesting to see how this week plays out.
Snowcat: 1st – I think you might have to change your name to SnowTiger….lol 2nd – In regards to everything you just stated – ditto….
Huh?
I forgot to add for those of you having problems getting to the site I forgot something that Chris told me once before when I was having problems. I’m just glad I finally remembered. If you are longing onto http://www.kentuckyweathercenter.com instead use https://www.kyweathercenter.com. Not sure why it makes a difference but it does with logging on and posting. We now rejoin your regularly scheduled weather chat.
You might be confusing storms?
The blizzard was announced a few days before it happened and folks were in disbelief and assuming it was wrong. A common quote was, “A blizzard in spring?!”.
I remember going to a video store, the day before the event and the owner was arguing that this area of Kentucky was on a plateau, so should not get such events. The reason I remember it is because it was an odd discussion and the only time I recall Kentucky being described that way. Still is the only time.
WXman, are you a working professional? I have never lost respect for someone as fast I have you. “I just finish ’em” are you kidding me?
You might be confusing storms, since the blizzard was announced a few days before it happened. I remember because I was in production control for an auto part supplier in Berea then and we had to make emergency preparations for downtime and shipped extra product early. Ford does NOT care if you are snowed in and will charge you $30,000 an hour regardless 😉 I would hate to think how much it is 18 years later!
It makes a difference when you arre trying to comment. Thanks!
In reference to Kentucky, Central KY is the epicenter of the dome. In reference to Central KY, Woodford KY is the epicenter. 🙂
I have to get ready for work, That is why i making a post early before the total nam 12z run is completed. It appears to me only 36 hours into it that the nam has moved farther north & west.
BTW, I respectfully disagree with your perspective. This is a discussion forum and as long as people are respectful and people are not trolling, CB likes the discussion and has said so before.
This is not a fan site, it is of course a weather blog. If we were just supposed to agree with everything, CB could just get rid of the comments and everybody just reply with emoticons 🙂 I suppose smiley faces is all we would need 😉
Nope same storm I was head of our emergency operations center at the time and we didn’t active because it wasn’t suppose to be much. I’m in far eastern Kentucky and then it went to 3-6, then 4-8 then 6-12 while we already had over 12 then they said 1-2 feet and we stopped at 30 inches. By the time we knew we needed to get people in they couldn’t make it and most had to be brought in by fire departments rough terrain vehicles or the national guard.
I like the different views but when some get on and say smart remarks to anyone with an different view it is out of hand. State your case and why and go on. I don’t need to know about my poor luck where I live and the snow gods don’t like me. Tell me it has been blank years that we’ve been through this and that is why I feel this way, but not some story about how EKY always gets the snow and we don’t get anything sounds like my kids.
Good point! Just because it was forecast for central KY does not mean it was for eastern 🙂
Our Mets at the time didn’t even come close and I won’t even touch the NWS on that one. I was stuck at the EOC for five days.
Another good point!
Here’s the 0z nam total qpf through 36 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p36_042s.gif
TWEEEEET!!!!!!!!
Plenty to share 🙂 ;( 😉
I have been reading this blog since the WKYT days but have never posted. I also live in the snowdome capital-Richmond. It concerns me that Chris has not gone into ALERT mode. All of us oldtimers know that is bad news.
Snowdome showdown begins…
Cabin fever! 😉
That looks scary GOOD! Also new treat says good snow for WKY and CKY.
I remember NAM. It was hell. But it made a hell of a ping pong player.
I’m dreading the possibility of a snow day this week (I would LOVE to get in one more full week this month), but I’m anxious to see Chris’s snow total projections.
This winter reminds me so much of the late 70s–it’s a little eerie!
Chris,
Thanks for all you do. I really appreciate your hard work to run this blog. I can’t wait till you put out the first call for snowfall map. I hope you don’t keep us waiting to much longer. I actually have to teach school tomorrow. Probably the only day this week though.Its going to be a long summer, but I love snow anyways.
Yeah it does!!
Based on his tweet, that may change soon. “IF” the system has shifted a lot more west, folks in eastern KY “might” want to do some shopping soon (depending on CBs update). It could get REAL busy tomorrow for flashlights, batteries, water, shovels, milk, bread…. forget about the salt, it will do no good with heavy wet snow.
Just saying 🙂 Better safe than cold and dark with no milk & bread 😉
Been there and done that several times 🙁
Great point. Were 24 hours out so I say it is coming soon.
Thats a sweet tweet:)
On Chris’ other blog WSAZ (I think) one of the maps has Laurel County in the 2-4 inch range. I was sorta hopin’ for lots more.
But I do not want to be without power. Been there done that…
I know Chris will have an update soon.
So many people waitin’ very patiently on his update & Snow Map…
Thanks for all the updates Chris
Who said anything about milk and bread? What about beer and tequila?
new post is up.
Bubba,I asked this earlier..If the storm shifts more west will east ky get more snow totals? I know lex, and anything west will get more but wondering if east ky will get an increase and why?
Shopping List for Snow Days:
Milk
Eggs
Bread
What is it about snow days that makes everyone want to make French Toast? LOL
that’s what i’ve been saying! my MIL sends me to the store before we get snow for that stuff everytime!
Still 41 degrees here and raining as of 9am. Almost feels like it isn’t coming, but I know it is. Just a matter of time! Stay safe and stay warm everyone! Does anyone know if there has been any power outages anywhere wwest and north yet? Just curious. Thanks Chris! I hope you are sleeping like a baby! Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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