Good Wednesday to one and all. Frost is on the pumpkins to start the day, but the focus of the forecast is on a big storm system rolling in for the rest of the week. This brings nasty weather our way to close out the month of October. I’m also going to look deeper into the month of November and the potential for a quicker than normal start to winter.

Temps this morning start in the frosty low and middle 30s across central and eastern Kentucky with some of the valleys below freezing. A mix of sun and clouds will then be noted this afternoon with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s for many.

That brings us to our next system and it’s one we’ve been tracking for well over a week now. A slow-moving massive storm system will impact every state east of the Mississippi River through the Halloween weekend. Regular readers already know what to expect, but here’s another breakdown for the newbies…

  • The Kentucky impact is Wednesday night-Saturday night.
  • Rounds of rain spiral across the state during this time, bringing some locally heavy rains from time to time.
  • A general 1″-2″ of rain will be noted for many.
  • This is not a setup that should cause any high water concerns.
  • Can we get some dry times in between rounds of rain? Yes, but don’t expect too much.
  • Winds will be gusty and some 30mph+ gusts may show up at some point.
  • Temps remain seasonably chilly with 50-55 on most days, with the potential for some upper 40s.
  • The rain looks to move away early Sunday and that means Halloween looks seasonably chilly and dry.

This brings us to November and a pattern that will likely skew colder than normal. The first few weeks of the month are likely to feature cold shots diving into our region. The first should come around the middle of next week with another likely the following week. Can these produce the first flakes of the season? You already know my thoughts on it and there’s increasing model support for the flakes chance.

The GFS is trying to give us a couple of chances. Here’s the first later next week…

And the week after…

Once again, we take any model in that range with a grain of salt and we only look at them for trends. Any true weather enthusiast knows that, but some of the trolls out there just can’t understand that concept. That’s on them. 😜

The Canadian Ensembles continue to have a cold look to them as we head into the opening 10 days of November. Watch how the western ridge and the eastern trough stay pretty much locked in place…

The idea of a cold November continues to gain additional model support, this time by EURO Weeklies. The 30 day average through Thanksgiving shows a trough in the east and ridge in the west…

The same run then strengthens that trough into the first week of December…

Given how this model has a hard time seeing troughs and cold air, the fact it’s actually showing it should raise some eyebrows.

With the colder than normal look, the model is also seeing some snow chances through the first week of December…

We are now in the multiple updates a day season, so I will see y’all later today. Have a good one and take care.