Good Thursday to one and all. Our major fall storm system has arrived and it’s in no big hurry to get out of town. Rounds of rain, gusty winds and chilly temps will be common into the start of the Halloween weekend. Once into early November, we have to be on guard for cold shots leading to winter getting started quicker than normal.
Let’s begin this pre-Halloween party with a breakdown of the storm upon us:
- Rounds of rain are common through Saturday night. There’s even a small chance for some thunder.
- A general 1″-2″ of rain shows up during this time.
- Some breaks in the rain will show up , but the windows of “dry” may not be very big.
- Wind gusts to 30mph will be possible from time to time.
- Temps remain much chillier than normal for highs and a little above normal for lows. Highs of 50-55 are common with the chance for some upper 40s.
- The rain moves out in time for what looks to be a pleasant Halloween.
Here are your radars to track today’s spiraling bands of rain…
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The pattern after this into the first week of November will likely feature much colder air sinking into the country. The exact details are still to be ironed out, but the models continue to be very enthusiastic on the cold shot and even the potential for some early flakes trying to show up.
I’ll get more into that later today.
If we look longer down the weather road into Thanksgiving week, we find the CFS with that deep trough hanging tough in the eastern half of the country…
Now, if we take the CFS control run and ask it to spit out the 30 day temp departures from November 10-December 10 it gives us this look…
Interesting.
I will drop by for another update later today. Have a terrific Thursday and take care.
this going be a wet winter, lets hope the fence dont set up here this yesar.
Agreed, I’ll buy the coming Winter as being wet due to La Nina, but I fear we may have Ice instead of Snow ?I’m now hoping we continue the current weather pattern through the Winter and have a freeze free Spring in April.
Notices how all sudden the tropics went quite since October roll in. Have a great day!!
Yeah, a year ago the tropical Atlantic was very active. I just kind of wonder if we a getting THE REAL TRUTH about what is really going on with the Earth’s climate.
Now I must mentioned that a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic combined earlier in the week with an upper level low, (the one that gave us a rainy day) forming the first Nor’Easter along the East coast. If Arctic air was in place it would have been quite a Snowstorm for those Folks.
This morning I checked all the teleconnections and found that all are either week negative or a week positive if not neutral. The NAO, AO, and the EPO would have to go way….. negative to overcome a moderate La Nina that is predicted by NOAA this coming Winter to bring Snowstorms into our area of the country. It is not likely we would repeat the Winter of 1917-18, but we will find out for sure in May 2022.