Good Friday, folks. Rounds of showers keep doing their thing across Kentucky and this trend will take us into Saturday. From there, we clean up for Halloween, but the setup for early November continues to take on a little bit of a winter flavor.

As always, we are going to start things out with what’s going on out there today. It’s damp and rather dreary for most as spiraling bands of showers rotate counterclockwise around low pressure. This is NOT all day rains for any one location and our radars show what I’m talking about…

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The same can be said for the showers on Saturday as the low begins to slowly pull away through the afternoon and evening hours.

This sets the stage for a really nice Halloween with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s. Trick-or-treating looks about as pleasant as you will ever find around here.

From here, the pattern undergoes a fairly significant change as a winter looking setup takes shape.

Colder air quickly works in here behind a weak front late Monday and Tuesday. The potential is there for this front to slow down and allow for low pressure to develop along it. This is a scenario many of the operational models have been showing on and off for a few days now. IF this low is real, then it could give our region the potential for some early season flakes.

You can see this on the EURO…

The overnight run of the Canadian really likes that idea…

That model run shows some serious cold air for this early in November. Look at the departures from normal…

The latest GFS Ensembles Extended continue to show a trough in the east for November. Here’s the average 500mb height anomalies through Black Friday…

The model only goes through early December but it keeps the trough going into the start of the winter season. The model shows the snow chances through this same time…

One of the seasonal models I start to look at more and more as we get closer to winter is the JMA. It goes out for roughly 4 weeks in advance and the new run is out showing a similar view to many other seasonal models for the month of November. Check out the trough it keeps across the eastern half of the country over the next 28 days…

That’s a hemispheric view, so I highlighted what to look for. 😁

I will throw you another update later today, so check back. Have a fantastic Friday and take care.