Good evening and Happy Halloween. It’s a very nice evening for Trick Or Treating across the Commonwealth as pleasant conditions show up. As we flip the calendar to November, the pattern turns much colder than normal, but can we get some flakes to show up for the first time this season? Maybe, but the odds aren’t exactly stacked in the snow lovers favor.
A cold front arrives late Monday into Tuesday and will have a band of light showers along and behind it. There’s an outside chance for a few flakes to show up with this and the EURO is showing a little blue across the southeast…
You have to squint to see it, but the snow map shows the southeastern Kentucky flake potential…
The NAM is also showing a few flakes, but it has these skimming far northern Kentucky into southern Ohio…
Regardless, the temp trend is way down behind this front. Here’s the NAM temp animation from 8am-8pm Wednesday…
Highs in the 40s look very likely for the second half of the week with an extended run of lows in the 20s setting up through the start of next weekend.
The potential southern system isn’t as strong on the models as of now with the EURO going the way of the GFS and keeping most of this south of us…
The GFS is still likely too far south…
The Canadian looks more like the EURO and still manages to bring a few more flakes into southeastern Kentucky by Thursday…
One of the reasons the GFS is so fast and far south with this late week system is because it has another one quickly diving in behind it next weekend into early the following week…
The GFS Ensembles show that tough very well before relaxing the pattern for a few days, then bringing a new trough in after that toward the end of week 2 of the month…
Enjoy the rest of your Halloween and take care.
An early start to the cold rain season.