Good Sunday, folks. Here’s hoping this post finds each of you living your absolute best life. In terms of the weather, this is some of the good stuff as far as November is concerned and it looks to roll on into the middle of the week ahead. Beyond that, a winter pattern is going to try to flex on much of the country.
Our day may very well start in the 20s for the 5th straight day here in the first week of November. That will add to the historic cold some areas are seeing. No, I’m not talking record lows, but this is more about the staying power of the cold. My tweet from Saturday spells it out…
It's one of the coldest starts to November on record in Lexington. This is the 4th straight day with a low of 28 degrees or colder. Through November 6th, only 4 years had as many 28 degrees or colder lows. 1995, 1976, 1951 and 1939. Record keeping started in the 1870s. #kywx
— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) November 6, 2021
That’s some impressive stuff, folks.
Temps do climb today through the middle of the week as the 60s become common for highs. Lows actually come way up as well as southwest winds really begin to crank into the first half of the new week. Overall, this is some really nice November weather!
A potent storm system then develops across the plains and rolls toward the Great Lakes by Thursday and Friday. This drags a strong cold front across Kentucky with gusty winds, showers and storms ahead of it and a big crash in temps behind it. This crash in temps really settles in over the weekend when highs may not get out of the 30s and there’s the potential for some light snows in our region.
The Canadian Model continues to have a good look for winter lovers…
You can see the next system zipping into the Mississippi Valley behind that and this could impact us a few days later.
The GFS goes from snowstorm to a very progressive look in just a few runs…
Remember, the bias of the GFS is to be too progressive with these types of setups, so slow everything down and deepen that trough and cold air. The model really could not see the depth of the cold this past week because of this progressive bias.
If we look deeper down the road we find a new trough likely to develop in the week leading up to Thanksgiving. This is a really cold and wintry look developing on the EURO Ensembles…
I will have another update later today, so check back. Have a happy Sunday and take care.
