Good Monday everyone and welcome to a very busy weather week. It is getting started off with some light snow across the region today before what will become a major winter storm for much of the eastern half of the country. For that reason… we are in Winter Storm THREAT mode for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The trend toward a bigger hit on our region continues and we will get to that in a moment.
The burst of light snow early today can put down local coatings to one inch. This should taper off to flurries in the afternoon with highs into the 30s. There could be one more batch of light snow this evening and overnight as well. Whatever is out there will show up here…
This brings us to the Winter Storm Threat for Tuesday night and Wednesday. We went into threat mode on Saturday with the higher potential across the east and southeast with a decreasing threat the farther west one goes. That first map I put out remains true today…
I will be able to fine tune that today and I suspect Winter Storm Watches for some counties will be coming out from our friends at the National Weather Service.
I will get to my early thoughts on this storm in a moment. Let’s start by taking a look at the computer forecast models. We had been seeing a wide range in the track forecast for the upcoming storm. That is no longer the case as most models are getting closer to coming into agreement on how this all plays out. The GFS model had been a major outlier of late in showing the storm basically missing everyone. That is no longer the case as the model has come way west with the storm track. It will continue to correct west with the track and the precipitation shield. Here is the better, but far from perfect, run…
The Canadian Model continues to lead the way in terms of consistency…
The UKMET hasn’t been too far behind…
The European Model was originally showing a pretty big hit a few days ago before it lost its way for a while. The trend on the model is toward the Canadian and UKMET and the latest run brings close to 1″ of liquid precipitation into eastern Kentucky and a half inch back to around I-75.
Here is the track on the European…
I made a map Sunday afternoon, of the eventual track and resulting snow threat and ended up not posting it as I wasn’t confident enough. While this thing still is no sure thing … here is a look at my early call on where the storm goes…
Needless to say… seeing the other models now showing a similar track to what I was thinking does a weather dude good. 
Some storm thoughts…
– This still isn’t set in stone and any deviation in the storm track will alter the forecast significantly.
– The area of heaviest snow is likely to be across parts of southern and eastern Kentucky with lighter amounts farther west and north. I can’t even begin to talk about possible snow totals until the low track is established. There is likely to be a pretty sharp cutoff to the snowfall on the northwestern side especially.
– This is a Tuesday night and Wednesday storm with the bulk of the snow to fall Wednesday.
– Temps will be near freezing for the bulk of the first half of the storm and this could result in a heavy, wet snow for some. If this storm ends up putting parts of our region in the axis of heaviest totals… some tree and powerline issues could arise… especially in the higher elevations.
– The precipitation could start out as a mix before dynamic cooling kicks in changing the mix to snow. Northerly and northwesterly winds would then help with the cooling process as the low kicks into high gear just to our east.
– I want to stress this is NOT SET IN STONE and the track could still shift back to the east leaving us out of the heaviest axis of snow. That said… the clear trend puts parts of the state in the game for a significant snow event.
As you can imagine… the blog will kick things up a notch with updates on this possible winter storm. An upgrade to Alert is very possible later today as well. Check back for updates and follow my twitter feed for some rapid fire thoughts from me.
Have a great Monday and take care.
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We’ll get the usual 1-3″
Thanks for the update!
thanks chris! bedtime! first?
dusting already down in Marion County
Roads are covered.
Currently, we have flurries in west Berea..2am
C’mon…kick westward!!! (In Lexington)…I was only 8 during the 1998 (was it ’98?) storm. I’d love to see a BIIIG one (though I realize from what I gather this isn’t that big)
Flurries started at UK Hospital at about 2:30 and quickly became a light snow shower by 2:35. I’ve also noticed that it feels much warmer outside as compared to this past evening!
CB’s map is fairly close to what I have explained in my journal. My track is just a tad west. For example, I have the low trekking near Philadelphia later. That shifts CB’s curve westward by less than 50 miles. But, hey, a slight shift either way is going to have substantial consequences on snow amounts for any one location esp along and east of I-75
6Z NAM did not resolve it’s convective feedback issues, but still shows a decent hit of snow for Eastern KY.
No school in Montgomery County due to snow that fell last night, 1/2 at least.
Light coating here in Lexington this morning. Fayette co. schools out again today.
Jackson and Morristown NWS throwing out amounts in their statements just saying a general 2-4. Doesn’t seem to add up to most graphics having the heaviest snow axis over this part of the area? Jackson also seems concerned with downsloping along with the rain.
Thanks Chris. Good morning Chris and everyone. I had to come on here before my morning coffee. 🙂 Everyone have a good day!
Trouble posting this morning? No school in Montgomery County due to a hefty 1/2 inch. I think this makes #9.
well unless later today models change 1-3 inches at best for SE KY, once again whwn usually 2 days in we know what going happen, the SNOWDOME kicks in. sorry gang but no big snow again.
Feels like we are living “Life on the Edge of a Snowstorm”, the web’s best blog/soap opera about life inside the snowdome.
No school for Scott Co. today…
Okay rolo do you have any reasoning for this sudden change of heart? Because just yesterday you were calling for 12-15 for southeastern KY, and this morning 1-3 when the models have not changed for the worse but for the better. You really are a joke, and if anyone on this blog actually takes your opinion into consideration for any plans they have, then they need just as much help as you do. I’ll believe were getting 1-3 or 12-15 when CB says so.
So Chris, is this set in stone? And how much am I going to get in my back yard?
LOL- JUST KIDDING! Thanks for all you do.
1/2 inch in ETown– and YEP, we are going to school– much to my kids dismay, LOL. 🙂
Rolo…Keep up your forecasting and postings. If it were not for the likes of YOU, BUBBAG, Mitch, Mike, MJ and others on this blog it would not be as fun. I know were you are coming from.
As for the weather we will have a clear picture later this evening on the track this low will take. I know we are going to get by passed here in the Lou. area, but everyone from I-75 east should get there shovels ready for 1″ to 15″ of the white stuff….LOL..THINK SNOW…
Rolo, put that Clay county shine down son. The LEGEND has spoken, east KY has a good shot of some good snows. You flip flop like a nervous politician. I believe n the LEGEND, CB.
This little system overachieved and blew many forecasts out there. Thanks Chris for another accurate forecast. No school for most of the Bluegrass today. Chris’s track of the Wednesday storm is decidedly west of most shown this morning-at this point I’ll stick with the legend Bailey.
well knox co. is on a 1 hr. delay today…and unless its snowed in other parts of the county. NOT A FLAKE appears to have fallen in my backyard over night…
…….
Thanks chris for all the hard work/dedication…looking forward to the next update!
what blows my mind isFAYATTE CO SCHOOLS beingout more this year than they have ever. they used to never miss unless it came 7 or 8 inches.
So, after all of the model hoopla, we are back to full circle: Far east and south-east KY have the best chance for big snow and a drop off after that- west.
The ENTIRE weekend was a Seinfeld episode 😉
Looks like Louisville will get the usual 1-3″.
I have all the faith in the world in Chris but this system in general is making me nervous because the higher temperature levels for Tuesday and Wednesday. Can anyone tell me if there will be a cooling event before the storm pulls through here? Its getting really close and we still have little or no information on how much snow to expect. Hope for tons but not getting too excited. The NWS is giving 2-4 and to me thats hardly a Winter Storm and we are not at alert status yet either. Frusturated but thankful that Chris is giving us updates 🙂
Hey rolo,why so down all of a sudden,did the models take a bad turn last night?
Guess today the big day,will it snow or not,By this evening we should know..still needs to shift west for a big one?
That’s best case scenario at this point…
Rain will probably be a factor and cut into snow totals- hit or not, for far east and especially south east KY.
Funny how all the hub-bub and we are where we started. The shift west has to take place for east and south east to get a big snow. Central and further west need a big shift, so are a long shot- just as it was when we started.
Again, the issue is not snow, but BIG snow. Central KY has a good chance of some snow, just not a big snow….. Just as postitioned a few days ago 😉
Nothing changed- so far.
I’m amazed that Fayette called school today and didn’t go with a delay. They are going well into June as it is!
Chris still has Wayne County in his moderate chance area (barely) but the nws still forecasts temperatures well above freezing except for Wednesday. Anything that falls would turn into a slushly mess the next day…weird stuff!
Sorry folks, but don’t get your hopes up.
We are probably looking at an all rain event here. The bulk of the precipitation, if any is likely to fall before the colder air is in place, leaving us to the back end with a little snow on roof tops of cars (maybe).
That’s my prediction.
Sorry folks, but don’t get your hopes up.
We are probably looking at an all rain event here. The bulk of the precipitation, if any is likely to fall before the colder air is in place, leaving us to the back end with a little snow on roof tops or cars (maybe).
That’s my prediction.
June 3rd as of right now…
Thanks, Chris. Heard another outlet talking about the possibility this morning, so you are ot out there by yourself. Looking forward to your next update. Thanks again.
very light snow flurries now in Northern Rowan County/Fleming County line..SHEW, this upcoming storm sure has been frustrating for those of us just waiting to see what’s going to happen, can’t imagine how frustrating it must be for Chris and other Mets trying to figure it out and make the best call..With all the variables at play here, too many have to come together “just right” to make this a big storm…I don’t see it happening. Hope I am wrong..
Wonder when we will see a tweet or update…..
The nay-saying gravy train has been rolling hard and fast here in the comments section. We need to slow the roll of this train and stick it in reverse. CB said he will “likely” be upgrading to Alert mode today. I doubt he’d be saying that for a mostly rain event.
Remember patience is key.
As far as Lexington schools closing, last year they got criticized greatly for remaining open during times when most likely should have closed, so it seems this year they are going overboard with closing all the time! Either they really took the criticisms to heart or they are going to show them what it’s like to go to school through June! haha..can’t please everyone ever..
Question…between snow and rain, there is usually a little thing called freezing rain..with this being sort of in the middle (according to some) is it possible we could be looking at periods of freezing rain and be an ice event?
12z nam suffers from more convective feedback.
The local mets are calling this a mostly rain event with the temps well above freezing?? I’d rather have nothing at all than rain on top of the snow on the ground. That will just make for a muddy, nasty mess.
Normally I frequent this site but rarely comment. However, I’ve taken an interest in your chances for a significant snow this week since we won’t be getting much out of this in Louisville. Believe it or not, the models I use for my special blend analysis are coming to an agreement for precip amounts.
Since nobody is really dishing out specific amounts for most areas, I thought I’d give it a shot.
Remember now, it looks like rain will be a player in this storm system for most of these areas. If all snow, wow, look out.
Pikeville 5-9″
Middlesboro 4-7″
Jackson 2-4″
Hazard 3-5″
Lexington 1-2″
There, that’s my first call….
What does that mean?? Snow in Mercer?
I gree! I’d rather this whole thing slide off the Florida coast then get a bunch of rain on top of this snow.. oh well guess we will just have to wait and see. Chris is always on target esp. when u compare him to local Mets..
Keeping kids safe has to be priority number one. If it means an day later in June, so be it. No school district should be in session if there is the slightest chance of a child being injured. I don’t think the “powers that be” make these decisions lightly.
*patiently waiting for Chris’ next update, while ignoring all other outlets*
what are you thoughts on Morehead area Mitch? the 2-4?
I am concerned with the temperatures for the days of the storm and sincerely hope Chris knows something we don’t. My take on this subject is that if he is generally exited about snowfall amounts he will update quickly but if not, he will wait and see another run to make sure and then break the news. I am normally not a skeptic but I am really wondering this time….prove us wrong Chris….PLEASE lol!!
Due to the rain factor that CB is not mentioning (why?), I agree with your totals.
If no rain, higher totals, but not seeing how rain will not be a factor- even if we get a big shift.
Best case scenario for central KY is 5″ to 6″ and that would be with a mega chunga shift, IMO. Not very likely.
I completely agree with you on the keeping kids safe should always be number one. I just think to close with an inch of snow in a metro area like Lexington is over kill to avoid the scrutiny they had last year.
For the first time, the NAM is actually making progress. These are by far the best numbers it has spit out for this storm. I believe, as Chris stated, the GFS and NAM will continue to correct themselves further west with each run. I don’t think im going to guess on snowfall totals until the 00z runs of all models. Keep in mind, the Canadian has been vet consistent. Not wavering…there’s still that chance all of kentucky could get in on this, if the Canadian verifies. Just saying…
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamp72_MW072.gif
Seems CB is assuming all snow and this may be the irony. We get a big shift, but rain cuts totals down and evil Darth laughs in the distance.
Moderation blues.
Why to this point has CB not mentioned rain for the event? Seems even with a shift, rain would steal away a chunk of the snow totals.
Yes, I know I already said this for the past two days, but still seems odd CB is saying snow, but not mentioning rain for the event. CB miss something? Does not happen hardly ever, but has the focus been to much on the shift and not on the actual way the stuff falls?
Kentucky 33/32 degree rule about to bite us again?
BubbaG, CB said something about upper air cooling.
He called it something else, but I can’t remember.
I understand your concern Bubba…but the freezing line on the new NAM run has the entire state of ky below the freezing line when the heavier precip begins. I don’t think it will be as big of a concern as you and MS think. Just my thoughts. If CB doesn’t mention that concern on next update, i wouldn’t really worry about it. Do you remember in ’98 storm how it was between 32-34 degrees the entire event? So, don’t give up hope.
Somebody care to remind me of the last time we saw a storm track like this trend WEST during the 24 hours leading up to the storm? Because I can’t remember that happening in a LONG time. We’ve seen them go farther east, but not west. Plus, the NAM and GFS are both rock solid run after run now at keeping this thing on the coast. If Louisville gets any snow at all, it’ll be luck. Lexington…a small layer of snow at best.
I agree…i guess you have to go back to the “dusting” ’98 storm. Even though it might not be likely, that storm proved it CAN happen. Not saying this is ’98 all over again. Just saying its not impossible, lol
You must have a very fast computer because mine has not updated all the screens of the NAM as of 9:50. I’ll check the new NAM by 10:30.
Glad to hear this…I am terrible at reading the models and appreciate this info 🙂
If I can recall correctly, the december 19-20, 2009 winter storm shifted west in the hours leading up to it, albeit the precipitation was mostly rain for areas Lexington west.
I don’t remember the forecasts for the December 22, 2004 winter storm but I think that also shifted west at the last second.
If Lexington were currently in the bullseye for this upcoming storm, it would definitely shift west! 😉
Whatever the case, the local mets are saying mainly rain, so either they are very wrong, or CB just has not added that dynamic to his call yet.
Please keep in mind CB is posting blog thoughts and NOT an actual forecast yet. Local mets are forecasting the event apparently as mainly rain & mix.
I already made my call, so interesting to see if we get a Bubba buster 🙂
Can’t agree with you here. As Chris has stated, it’s not just the american models. Look at some foreign models. You can’t base a prediction off of two american models that have been subject to feedback issues and other stuff.
The NAM has been rock solid the last 3 runs, but can you honestly buy it with as much convection as it has popping over the Gulf of Mexico? If that’s not a case of convective feedback I don’t know what is.
OMG-I need a tweet really bad! Living for Chris’ next update- so sad, but true!
More than safe to say 98 was the last time a big event happened for this type of system flow. That was a narrow system too, so the 75 mile shift left east KY with a small snow when they were supposed to be the ones that got hammered.
The main difference with that system is almost 3X the moisture with it. It rained that afternoon and evening, then changed to all snow at about 10pm and snowed off an on heavy for two days.
This is a mini-me compared to 98, so no comparison at all, besides the direction.
Not seeing a Bubba buster, but welcome the thought 🙂
Completely agree with CB and tornadolarkin. I really do believe 80% of all MET’s mainly rely on the GFS and NAM when “forecasting”. In the end, maybe they’re right. But, bottom line is (and I hate to beat a dead horse here) the Canadian, JMA, and to a lesser extent the EURO, have all been consistent for days now! Doesn’t that have ANY weight at all in “forecasting”?? They don’t pay me to forecast. But, at least CB blends these other models together and really uses this to his advantage when “forecasting”. I will be very interested to see what his next update says.
Not saying this system is narrow like 98- bad wording. Meant to infer similar system types.
Temps will around 30 ….You dont get big snows if its any colder……IMHO
if u think the local mets are the best..then get off this blog..why come on here and say that cb is cracy or not correct in his thoughts..he has been right on this whole winter..way before any local mets or before of of us
I understood where you were going with it Bubba =-) I still am reserving my final thoughts until the 00z runs. My confidence in this storm (east/or west) is still 50/50. If the Canadian/JMA/Euro would’ve backed off by now, I would be leaning towards small amounts. But, I want to give the 12z and 00z a chance to deviate. If not, then I think we all have a shot at some descent snow still.
There is NO RAIN for this area. It will be ALL SNOW… CB or WYMT hasn’t mentioned any RAIN…
All I know is SEKY and EKY will get over a foot of snow! Prepare people!
Hi its us again super stoked about the new snow coming all you naysayers just need to listen to chris he is the man!!!!!!! Hes not been wrong so far, in the snow bunny household he is referred to as the snow god!
I guess we’ll shut up and let the snow fall like the “cookie crumbles”
You might want to read my post more carefully before blurting stuff out like that 😉
This would confirm the local mets are wrong- again 😉
Thing is, would they really be THAT bad?
curious as to know at this point, which models are used to make a forcast when there’s still some uncertainty about the models themselves??? anyone care to elaborate??? what is the general concensus on this event??? go ahead, someone take a shot in the dark!!! lol, it’ll be for “entertainment purposes only”..LOL!!:P
I agree with WeatherMiddlesboro I think we all need to listen to Chris. He has been right on every storm this winter. He has not mentioned rain, so he still thinks snow is the way it will go. In the next update, if there is a chance of rain I am sure he will mention it then. We just need to be patient and still keep thinking BIG SNOW TREND WEST. Because as we know the other mets have been wrong before. Thanks Chris, hurry and give us a quick update or a tweet. Thanks again
My opinion is that it’s ridiculous. What we are doing is turning our children into sissies. We are teaching the next generation that they should never have to do anything remotely risky, uncomfortable, or challenging. In turn, they will be a generation that doesn’t appreciate work ethic or doing what it takes to get things done in demanding conditions. Telling them to stay home because of a 1/2 inch of snow is a great indication of how pathetic our society is becoming. I personally remember my school bus being stuck in the snow and in the KY river during a flood. No joke. Now, my kids stay home everytime a flurry falls. It’s pathetic.
The “dusting” of ’98 wasn’t because the track changed. It was because dynamic cooling became crazy with that storm and the models didn’t account for that much of it. Totally different scenario. This storm is NOT going to pound Lexington.
All I can say folks is the NWS JKL is saying that this could be like the 2009 winter storm heavy wet snow. They are not talking accumulations but are confident on the heavy wet snow. — even the individuals that say we will have nothing I hope at least you have your winter weather kits ready just in case. Be safe all.
Actually, you can. Particularly when the Canadian, JMA, and Euro have been garbage all winter and couldn’t find a storm track with binoculars. Even CB talked about how pathetic the Euro has been this year. (It actually is every year, but this year it’s finally being recongnized).
totally with you 🙂
I too don’t think we in Lex see much from this storm……….BUT…..Regarding the 98 storm It was FEB 4th 1998…..I remember it vividly………It was very light rain outside and I remember listening to the radio at work and the NWS issued a WSW for EXTREME eastern KY and they said that we may see light flurries at best……..There was never supposed to be that much moisture at all with the 98 storm, even if had been plain rain…….based on the weather forecast that evening at 8pm…….By 10 pm it started snowing heavily and didn’t stop for a while. There was also a LOT of wind..The snow covered up my Directv Dish on the fence post outside from drifts…….It was really crazy.
What 2009 heavy snow storm? We got ice, but no big snow… Oh, you are not talking about central KY 😉
I forget that other folks get big snows and equate everyone to our big snow fate.
The suspense is killing me….go CHRIS go!!!!
Thanks for keeping us updated Chris.
I sure hope it tracks farther east and drops that stripe of wet snow away from here..
latest GFS has a BIG hit for e/se ky! Definetely starting to come around to CB’s thinking…It even has a 1-3″ potential as far back as the Ohio river now. Still reserving my thoughts on totals until the overnight runs. But, the potential (like a said) is there for everyone in KY to get in on this. 3″ is better than nothing for people who might be surprised if they do get some, considering all local MET’s are saying they aren’t too impressed with snow accumulations chances at all west of I-75. I’m starting to get a gut feeling that WWA will eventually be posted as far west as Louisville. You can disagree, but, the GFS/NAM are slowly coming around. If you can’t see this image, then copy and paste it in a new link:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfsp72072.gif
latest GFS has a BIG hit for e/se ky! Definetely starting to come around to CB’s thinking…It even has a 1-3″ potential as far back as the Ohio river now. Still reserving my thoughts on totals until the overnight runs. But, the potential (like a said) is there for everyone in KY to get in on this. 3″ is better than nothing for people who might be surprised if they do get some, considering all local MET’s are saying they aren’t too impressed with snow accumulations chances at all west of I-75. I’m starting to get a gut feeling that WWA will eventually be posted as far west as Louisville. You can disagree, but, the GFS/NAM are slowly coming around. If you can’t see this image, then copy and paste it in a new link—
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfsp72072.gif
Temps will be near freezing for the bulk of the first half of the storm and this could result in a heavy, wet snow for some. If this storm ends up putting parts of our region in the axis of heaviest totals… some tree and powerline issues could arise… especially in the higher elevations.
– The precipitation could start out as a mix before dynamic cooling kicks in changing the mix to snow. Northerly and northwesterly winds would then help with the cooling process as the low kicks into high gear just to our east.
I believe Chris statement above covers your concern,now lets hope everything stays on track and a little more shifting and BAM BAM..
12z GFS looks slightly west to me!(BTW, I’m from the Lou so I need it to keep on moving west, don’t stop now!)
Before…
Total precip. 36 hrs. 06z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p36_072l.gif
Now…
Total pecip 36 hrs…12z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p36_066l.gif
The Feb. 3 to Feb. 6 1998 event was a FREAK EVENT…A very slow Low moved up the Atlantic Coast. Due to the strength of the storm and its slow movement enough deep layered moisture was pulled into the system from the Atlantic Ocean, that the moisture was able to negotiate the Appalachian Mountains bringing heavy snows much further west than typical “nor’easters”.
We can hope for a FREAK STORM…
I am so not understanding where this rude post originated. I actually thought Bubba was pretty clear and offered some nice insight to the differences between a forecast and a blog. I bet if CB had to post a forecast, it would be different than what he takes time to share with us. Likewise, for the other darn good mets and weather lovers on here.
I cant believe everyone has forgotten about this storm in eastern Ky wow — this is a article right off the AEP site about power outages it was wet heavy snow. I will not argue on here this is my last post on this. Thanks
12/19/2009
Major winter snow storm causes extensive power outages in Eastern Kentucky
A strong winter storm packing rain and wet, heavy snow covered Kentucky Power’s service area Friday and Friday night leading to power outages for approximately 70,000 customers. The snow continues to fall this morning and even more power outages can be expected. The storm has caused extensive damage to power equipment as snow-laden trees and tree branches snapped and fell across power lines and utility poles.
i know it is a bit early to look at the RUC but 18 hours out, it shows it farther north and a tad bit farther west then the nam shows it 18 hours out.. just something to watch.
While we wait for CB to update here is a pretty cool site that list all SNOW / ICE Storms that have hit Kentucky since 1969…
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~storms
.
For those that are curious about the discussion and would like to see the NAM & GFS predicted snow maps:
GFS: http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif
NAM: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif
Right on, BubbaG! Everyone in every direction assumes that because they HAVE gotten a big snow, that we in CKY must have too! Not so much! 13 years and counting!
12z GFS seems to be on board with heavy wet snow for a good chunk of the state. Hmmm.
my thoughts exactly….it even has Lou. in the 1-3″ range. The new GFS run looks crazy similar to the “garbage” Canadian model, as some like to think, lol…just playing around. But, wow, what a difference a day makes. The 12z run has the entire state getting at least an inch. When before, only the eastern part of the state was to get much of anything. hmmm…CB right again? Local MET’s playing catch up? Time will tell.
I would not call the canadian garbage this time as all the models have what that model has had for days now.
Shane, what are your thoughts regarding the temps at onset potentially cutting totals? GFS really threw me for a loop with temps above freezing.
[For anyone interested in chatting about this system while we wait for more updates, feel free to come to http://www.ekywx.com/kychat.htm *Open in a new browser so you can leave KWC up for any updates!*]
Does it still show East and Southeast getting slammed?
All I want to know is where the meetings will be set up throughout the state after winter is over for those of us that will have blog withdrawal?
There was a storm with heavy wet snow in 2009 — look at this article from AEP on it — 12/19/2009
Major winter snow storm causes extensive power outages in Eastern Kentucky
A strong winter storm packing rain and wet, heavy snow covered Kentucky Power’s service area Friday and Friday night leading to power outages for approximately 70,000 customers. The snow continues to fall this morning and even more power outages can be expected. The storm has caused extensive damage to power equipment as snow-laden trees and tree branches snapped and fell across power lines and utility poles.
If by chunk you mean far east and south-east? Everybody else is 1-2″. Again, the SAME basic result since Friday. Not exactly a big west shift 😉
NEW TWEET FROM CB. SHOWING GFS IS COMING MORE NORTH AND WEST!
They will take place each weekend at the many Beautiful State Parks/Lakes that Kentucky has to offer. What else is there to do in the cold of winter. THINKS SNOW now…See you on the lakes for rehab….
Actually it is mainly due the more litigious minded people (those who like to sue for easy money).
For perspective in our culture, people actually sued McDonald’s for “making” them eat there three times a day and make them fat.
Yet…………….
Yes… This February 1998 event was freakish, and it happened during an El Nino winter. This winter we are experiencing a La Nina winter, and so far this winter has not exhibited what we would expect for a La Nina type winter; so leave nothing off the table.
That said, will this storm get those of us in central KY? Time will tell, keep watching the models, and once our systems starts developing, watch the jet streams, the radars, and surface observations from stations downstream. Time will tell!
Thank You!!! I feel much better now…lol
o.k. i’ll ask the question first…what does that mean for my area?? Lake cumberland area that is.
Wow, CB, I was just sitting here enjoying the bloggers’ comments and wondering what it would be like to have so many people anxiously awaiting what you have to say and valuing your opinion above all others. You handle the pressure well. I guess pressure is easy when you’re the best. 🙂 Bring it!
Bubba, the new GFS run is definetely WEST! It only had far east/se ky getting anything 24 hours ago. Now, it has central ky getting anywhere from 3-8″. And even louisville at 1-3″. The HUGE totals that were all the way into Virginia and West Virginia are now in East(not extreme east)/SE ky with the heavy precip shielf expanding west. Bottom line is this new run is making the Canadian not look like “garbage”. Like CB said, there’s more to forecasting than just using NAM/GFS. 😉
When will we get the first call on actual snow amounts around the area? Always interested to see how much Scott County will get due to its strange shape
LOL…SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE, BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO TELL. IF IT VERIFIES OUT, SOMERSET AND VICINITY WOULD GET A GOOD SNOW MAYBE 8 IN IF IT STAYS BELOW FREEZING…JUST MY OPINION AND INTERPRETATION OF THE VARIOUS MODELS. I AM IN NO WAY A PRO LIKE CB OR THE OTHERS 😉
Anybody remember a time when the models have Been so unreliable especially this close to an event? I remember the quote for central KY was “7 days away from the big one”
At some point you would think that whoever programs the computer runs would account for that bias.
Looking at the GFS linked above it only shows a good snow for far east and south-east. What am I missing?
Light pink = 2″ or less.
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwNexrad~Images2~19980204
CLICK SUBMIT / CLICK ON ON OF THE ZULU TIMES…YOU CAN ANIMATE THIS AS WELL…
For all of you junkies out there. This link allows you to put in a date. It will pull the actual radar from the 1998 storm. You can change the dates to view other radars also.
I like the shift NORTH AND WEST TWEET..
That one linked is not the 12z GFS.
On a lighter note Darth Bubba, “I find your lack of faith disturbing.” 😛
That is not an updated run of the 12z models Bubba…I’m going by the newest GFS run, just as CB tweeted a little bit ago to back up what I said.
And don’t forget the woman who sued them because she spilled hot coffee on herself…
never did understand how that could be McDonald’s fault, either.
Sorry to go tangential on you all, but CB is a deadringer for Phil Mickelson. Who is also one of the best at what he DOES!! Think Wicked Witch of the West with the low!!!
Beng has the lack-of-big-snow affliction 😉
local stations just reported no snow for central KY…
not norht, only west. big difference. north would bring warmer air in. west would keep the cold air in place but bring in more precip.
My daughter lives in a neighborhood near Masterston Station Park and the streets there were still covered before the latest snow. Ultimately, it’s the parents responsibility to get kids to school, but in today’s world…that’s pretty hard to do. There are no easy answers.
Yep, where is the regression and comparative analysis of the outlooks and results? Maybe it does happen, but the parameters are so dynamic and sensitive it is hard to peg down?
Hmm…wonder how Chris thinks about that comparison. 😉
Andy W. from Wave-3 just said he thinks the accumulating snows will not hit Louisville..and went on to say it would possibly be a BIG snowmaker for east coast again, and minor accumulations in southern and eastern kentucky. WOW!!! I’m sooo looking forward to CB’s thoughts. I don’t think even one MET from central ky and west think we will get anything.
They have been talking mainly rain if it does head this way. After all of this build-up, that would warrant a big:
Wu wu wuuuuuuuuu!
Are they wrong? Not long to find out.
I can not belive this Todd at wkyt said rain for eastern ky and a mix for lexington what is going on wedl l want belive it until chris said we will have rain…………..
For PETES SAKE someone please tell me what all of this means. I am more confused now than ever. CB tweets more north and west. West originally meant Lex to get a significant snow but the local stations are saying no snow???? someone for the love of God please tell me what is going on! LOL
Here is the latest forecast discussion from Jackson NWS.
/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THIS FCST HAS BEEN A DIFFICULT ONE. FIRST OFF IS THE WARM FNT THAT IS
PUSHING INTO THE CWFA AND HAS ALREADY BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
SME AREA. OUR CURRENT TEMPS IN THIS AREA ARE IN THE UPPER 20S BUT
THERE ARE MID 30S IN MIDDLE TN. THIS SNOW WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA
WITH OUR WRN COUNTIES RECEIVING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS AS THE AIR IN
OUR ERN COUNTIES IS MUCH DRIER AND WILL HAVE TO MOISTEN DOWN BEFORE
ANYTHING CAN REACH THE GROUND. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS BY MID
MORNING WILL BE AROUND 1/2 IN FROM EKQ TO JKL TO SANDY HOOK. THEN
AROUND 1 IN FROM IOB TO JUST NORTH OF MOREHEAD. BY MID MORNING THE
WARM AIR SHOULD HAVE CHANGED ANY LINGERING PCPN TO RAIN.
SECOND PROBLEM IS THE TRACK OF THE GULF LOW ON TUE NITE/WED. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL TRACK THRU GA AND UP THE
ERN SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. THIS SCENARIO GIVES US A DECENT
SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW CONFINED TO THE
ERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWFA… ROUGHLY FROM PAINTSVILLE TO JKL TO LOZ…
WITH THE VERY BEST SNOW IN THE ERN MTNS. THIS EVENT WILL START AS
RAIN ON TUE WHICH WILL CUT DOWN THE SNOW TOTALS SOME. ALSO THE
INITIAL WINDS ARE FROM THE SE WHICH IS DOWNSLOPE AND BESIDES
WARMING… TENDS TO CREATE A RAIN SHADOW ON THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
MTNS. THE TEMPS WILL DROP MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH THE FREEZING
READINGS OCCURRING AROUND 00Z WED. EXPECT THE TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO
FALL AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NEARLY AROUND DAWN ON WED AND THEN
PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY WED EVENING. OUR DAILY HIGH TEMPS ON WED
WILL OCCUR EARLY WED MORNING AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY OF SLOWLY
FALLING THRU THE DAY. SNOW BEGINS IN EARNEST JUST BEFORE DAWN ON WED
AND THEN CONTINUES UNTIL TAPERING TO FLURRIES AROUND MIDNIGHT.
BECAUSE OF THE EARLY RAIN AND THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS THE TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL IN DOUBT AND WOULD LIKE ANOTHER MODEL RUN
BEFORE ISSUING A STATEMENT/WATCH.
Looks like a little scared to make any kind of call at this point.
Can you be more specific as to what stations, and the time you saw this?
london easst and south east 8-12 inches.
pikeville area south same looking as well.
london east and se 8-12. pikeville area easte border with va same maybe higher.
sharp cut off and alot of u wll be bitching as usual from madison county north and west.
Wunderground site has forecast maps with all snow and heavy for central and eastern kentucky from the early morning hours Wednesday through Wednesday evening. North central and some western areas with light snow for an extended period.
All we know is CB posted thoughts and chances and said “NOT SET IN STONE”, but “very possible” for an alert.
CB is posting blog thoughts ATM and not a forecast. Big difference verses an actual forecast and is why CB has yet to make a call yet.
Bored out of my mind in a philosophy class I need weather. Hahah can someone give me update since I can’t look myself ATM??????!!! Please!!! 😉 hahah
Bubba, so do you think we will only get a couple inches of snow in Madison County or will this be a rain event for us? I can’t read the models to decide for myself, so any thoughts are appreciated.
When is the next GFS run?
In a philosophy class… Needing to no what the maps say!!! I can’t check or I would lol can someone give me an update ?????!!!
Why is no one else on board with this event? I’m sticking with Chris.
Get ready folks,Going to ALERT ALERT soon,South east ky will get its wish,jump on the ROLO train,,Oh i forget,,rolo jumped off the train this morning..
The wait is killing me! There are so many opinions on what is going to happen. Can’t wait to see what Chris says!
I’m in philosophy boreddddd Hahahah someone give me an update I’ve gone a whole 12 hours without seeing the models!!
In CB’s map above he shows “heaviest snow” and “snow”. Heaviest does not necessarily have to mean “heavy”, but is a relative term.
If the “heaviest” part of the map got 4″ and the other part got 2″, that would still mean the 4″ area got the “heaviest” snow. 😉
Philosophy that was my major.
Hilarious!! Rolo, please be waiting at the next stop. We’ll pick you up!!!!
pikeville south borgders couties 10 plus.
london south and east of them 8-12 inches with black mountain border areas more.
im setting here talking to my mule fore his thoughts, he thinks aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa hole deep to a giraffe is his forcast for SE KYYYYYYY.
Henry from accuweather JUST updated his snow map and acknowledged that the models are now indicating a more western track. Eastcentral, midcentral and all of east kentucky will get a GOOD snowfall. Northcentral KY and western are out of the picture…..
With all the different opinions on this “Snow Event,”
I betcha “Somebody’s” opinion will be right….LOL 🙂
WYMT said it at 12.15pm today.
They show a small fraction of east cental KY and all east KY. Pretty much a carbon copy of CB’s moderate to highest chance areas. Not much of central KY (sadly) seems listed in that coverage.
Dang,..rolo must of out runned the train and boarded again somehow,,,Thats one smart mule rolo..
For all the people asking for a simple explanation:
EAST of I 75 – you may see a significant snowfall. Several inches easily possible.
WEST of I 75 – a very typical snowfall. Maybe a couple inches if we are lucky. If you are wanting a half-foot and live here, better not hold your breath cause it ain’t happnin’.
I see no difference between the 12Z GFS run and the previous runs. This storm still goes up the eastern shore. We still get little to nothing here. How is that different? On top of that, 2M temp. profiles take us to 40 degrees or beyond tomorrow.
WYMT said what?..That rolo has one smart mule or hes faster than a speeding train?
Is nobody seeing all the rain that is going to fall with this system. We get snow on the backside with a lot of rain initially. just my thoughts. hopefully we get dynamic cooling or whatever higher power it is you all think will cool the air down enough to snow… hehehe
UNBELIEVABLE! At the top of these very same posts, at 6:23am this morning, about 6 hours ago, you said your forecast for SE Kentucky was 1-3 inches AT BEST!
Now you say 8-12.
No wonder why everyone on here makes fun of you.
Temps will be near freezing for the bulk of the first half of the storm and this could result in a heavy, wet snow for some. If this storm ends up putting parts of our region in the axis of heaviest totals… some tree and powerline issues could arise… especially in the higher elevations.
– The precipitation could start out as a mix before dynamic cooling kicks in changing the mix to snow. Northerly and northwesterly winds would then help with the cooling process as the low kicks into high gear just to our east.
I like this explanation from CB
Rain chances are becoming a real threat
Not sure what you mean 🙂 Already said I agree with CB’s maps and the chances. Just not seeing anything consistent to suggest central KY gets smacked with a big snow. CB is considering a shift west with his current posted thoughts
The rain issue disturbs me, since if it were to mainly snow and we get a good one, the local mets will have made themselves useless for future snow related forecasts. Terrible forecast record for this season so far if so.
Please keep in mind CB has yet to give totals, but a relative term of “heaviest” and “snow”. Some (perhaps) may be boosting totals in their minds, but not due to CB 🙂
Dear Mr. Bailey,
Speaking for myself and all the hardcore snow addicts out there I am begging for an update. I keep clicking on your page and peeking from the corner of my eye to make sure there’s nothing bad to report to us on here…..I can’t take much more, the suspense is killing me. I am asking the weather whisperer to give us your thoughts and they better be snowy or we will all revolt and come after you….you see you’ve created a monster and this is how we behave when we are denied our weather fix…..JK but I really can’t wait to hear from you and thanks for all you do for us!! 🙂
That is why we have all of those “warning” about hot contents now with food & beverages 😉
His nickname IS Rolo…coaster 😉
Mainly snow. I was referring to southern areas for rain “possibly” being a factor. Local mets seem sure of rain being a lot more of a factor.
Not seeing any way beyond 5″ or 6″ and 2″ to 4″ being a fair chance for Richmond area.
Long due for a Bubba buster, so it might as well happne now 😉
Jim Caldwell is going to put out a first call between 3:45-4:45
Thanks!
This is better than: Who Shot JR? Will it snow? How much will it snow? Will we get the “old school” monster snow storm? It doesn’t get any better than this…..
i can relate to that 100%. 😛 come on cb..update pleast!!!!! i’m having update withdrawls!! 😀 lol, this is a disease i’m telling you!!! 😛
New post but same ol stuff 🙁
Not sure where people are getting their information about the temps.
NWS in Jackson has 30 for Tues night and 32 for Wednesday.
Latest Canadian and JMA hold their course. Stretching 3+” all the way back to Louisville. Lexington and points south/east over half foot. SE/E ky still getting a foot or more! If anything, I like the unwavering of these models (right or wrong).
I am glad to be in Pikeville right now.Please don’t let the rain count down my totals lol.Rolo can I borrow a heater lol or a generator?
Looks like Louisville will miss out on another system and EKY will get the most. Oh well, there is always another system…
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