Update… GFS gets a clue and comes west…
Wednedsay Afternoon
Look for this trend to continue.
Previous Update
Good late Sunday evening gang. The new NAM is in and it continues to show a more south and east storm for late Tuesday through Wednesday and is, not only a miss for us, but a miss for the entire east coast.
The mid and upper levels of the model run look much better and don’t match up with what the model is showing at the surface. Why is that? This is something I talked about earlier with the GFS and I believe it is happening with the NAM as well… convective feedback.
The initial low pressure on the NAM develops in Louisiana just like every other model shows. From that point on the NAM… a blowup of thunderstorms occurs across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the NAM then places the low pressure directly under this cluster of storms. From there… the NAM loses the Louisiana low and thinks the storm is coming from the gulf the across Florida then offshore of the southeast coastline as it follows this, likely, spurious cluster of convection…
You can really see what i’m talking about on the above map that shows the precip from the initial low and the feedback low. Notice where all the precipitation then falls… along the track of the convective feedback low.
Could the NAM be right for the absolute wrong reason? Sure… this storm can miss us to the south and east. But, it is not going to be because of a convective feedback induced low pressure like this run shows. 
Let’s see what the rest of the overnight models show so we can get a better handle on where the REAL low is going to track. I suspect model changes will be common over the next 24 hours.
A full update comes your way tonight so check back. Take care.
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Thanks Waiting on all updates!!
SECOND? I’ll settle for second!
Last!
Latest discussion from JKL:
IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY AS AN
INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST. THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND ACCUMULATIONS WE
SEE ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THIS TRACK.
HOWEVER…THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEARS AT THIS TIME TO BE IN AREAS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. ANY
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE OF A HEAVY WET VARIETY AND SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS…SHOULD THEY OCCUR…WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES. RESIDENTS OF EAST KENTUCKY SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECASTS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THIS WINTER STORM
DEVELOPS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
Turn Out the Lights..
thanks for the update! I guess we let the jury deliberate. Looks like the verdict may not be in for another several hours. CAN’T TAKE THE DRAMA!
So does this mean it will miss us?? I am totally confused now.
anyone notice how ridiculously slow that snow to our west is moving>
and the gfs trends west!!! laying quit a bit of snow on the ground for east ky…
Chris is demonstrating how the NAM model (that many meteorologists use) is having problems interpreting how the low that may cause our snow tues-wed is developing.
In his diagram, the ‘initial low’ is the real low that will develop and travel up the coast. Be watching for it in the coming days because if we get hit, that’s what will do it. 🙂
Check out CB’s new tweet.
Thanks for the update, Chris. We’re headed back to Berea, from FL. We’re driving through Atlanta now.
Thanks so much for your explanation Anthony. There has been so much talk about this I can’t keep it straight. I really appreciate the insight. 🙂
He says several for eastern Ky. That’s nothing like a major storm! Let’s just hope it DOES continue a westward trend!!!!
The 00Z GFS has come in to the west. There is a lot of precip on the west side of the low. If this moisture field verifies, and our westernmost model ensembles hold to there current western solutions, it will be interesting come Tues into Wed for eastern KY. I am not sold yet on central KY, but don’t get me wrong, it would be nice to have some of that my way as well.
What’s your take on the westward jog, and by that I’m wondering if it will be a mediocre amount or shutdown amount?
So is this good news for central kentucky? Im thinkin’ not.
New GFS put me at 12″ of snow easy. Bring it on!!! Sorry Debbie Downers! All but 1 model shows it West now.
Doesn’t slower moving give the potential to lay down a bit more snow? Or am I just dreaming… lol.
Chris, I know you say sleep is for the weak, but you better rest up… this could be a really long 2-3 days!!! 🙂
CB, thanks for all the time you are putting in
to giving us these updates.
can i get a link to the GFS
I am going to try to make sense out of CB’s talk. Here are three consecutaive runs of the NAM for the time period. The first one shows the low develop out of Texas. The next link show where the second low develops out of the gulf, both lows show on this map. The third one shows the low out of Texas disappearing and the one from the gulf scooting across Florida. CB doesn’t buy the first LOw getting taken out by the one in the Gulf. Any input is welcome…I have no background in weather.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06042.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06048.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znam850mbTSLPp06054.gif
So, this means what? That Central Ky gets no snow? Confused!
And worn out with all this!
But…I ….Just…can’t….stay….awayyyyy…
😉
Unless there is a major shift west central KY gets zilch. Chris keeps saying eastern ky gets snow but nothing about the homeland. Wkyt is now calling for high 30s and rain Monday. If Chris pulls this off and central KY gets more than 4 inches he’ll be a hero.
Notice how the snow is breaking up PERFECTLY so as to not allow Louisville to have any? Geeessshhh…….
Chris, why not for(entertainment purposes)throw in one of your colorful snow fall prediction maps! I’ve not seen one in a while.
Thanks
Sad to say, but it looks like this one will be a spectator sport for E-Town and Louisville.
The WKYT link from my facebook that I was reading earlier (posted about 3 hours ago) said that it was too soon to tell for the late Tuesday, early Wednesday storm. They said pretty much the same thing that Chris has been saying… that some models have shown Lexington and Central Ky getting as much as 7″ of snow while other models are showing only an inch or two and that it all depends on how the models trend in the next 24 hours or so. I was actually surprised to see that as usually they are more likely to stick to one or the other prediction… lol.
It has to start breaking up by Louisvile so it will be completely gone when it reaches Woodford County, Epicenter of the Dome.
Life is back to normal.
Okay… I am going to bed. I just listened to WKYT give Lexington a forecast of all snow tonight, rain tomorrow, snow tomorrow night, then snow showers again for the Tuesday-Wednesday system.
I didn’t think precip types were in question this week? They had us in the upper 30’s to low 40’s tomorrow and Tuesday? Looks to me like everyone is kind of playing hot potato!?!
Thanks Chris for bringing it to us like you see it… I’ll see you guys tomorrow.
Oh yeah… Tommy! Where are you Brother??? I blew up PNS this morning. It was unbelievably crowded. Kind of a bummer but sliding is sliding!
Because if he does that, people will take it seriously..and as what will for sure happen lol
Check out new tweet…
EXACTLY! The Snow Dome Beast awakens from a short slumber to chase away our winter hopes and dreams. We won’t tell it about the Feb 1st possibility! 🙂
These are CB’s newest tweets!!
“Canadian Model rolling in and continues to show a big eastern Ky hit with snow all the way into western Ky for the Tue-Wed storm.” ·
“GFS is coming around and would now put down several inches of snow in eastern Ky Tues night and Wednesday. Look for west trend to continue.”
Wow….what is the Canadian model smokin’?
If only……I’m off to bed. Snow-no snow-snow-no snow- I’ve got psychological whiplash!
Ah well… ya win some, ya lose some.
Maybe we will get some yet. Winter’s still not over… 🙂
This storm may go down as one of the most difficult to predict in a long time. With that being said we still have a chance as they all say the models wil continue to change hour to hour.
Chris this is one blogger that will never lose faith in you i know you work so hard to give us your best and get pay nothing so you keep up the good work…….
wohoo baby check out that snowdome in action…bubba g!! where are you!!!!? Lol This is good stuff your missing haha
The air is pretty dry. Like last week it’s taking a lot of time for the atmostphere to moisten. I don’t think there will be enough moisture left as the low passes to give woodford little if any.
Thanks Chris for your unbeleivable dedication! As hard as I’m trying I think this is a “IF” storm, IF the low had track X way, IF the temps had been right, IF the low had developed it’s own cold air..we would have gotten blasted! I hope I am wrong, I live in Morehead (guess that’s Eastern, but I don’t think it’s the Eastern Ky Chris is talking about)..I think it will be just those areas right along the border of Virginia…just my humble opinion…as trends go..this appears to be the most likely scenario..:( but I remain optimistic haha
Oh Chris… I knew you would pull that NAM westward for us…YEAH!!!
looking for a tweet on the euro my source won’t have it for an hour it’s late! thanks chris for the model updates.
the surface site which provides very crude images has it about 20-50 miles west of the gfs.
Nice explanation CB.
But that’s it. We’re getting closer to the main event and the NAM is having a breakdown.
No problem. . .where’s that. . .Farmers Almanac? Let’s see, uh page….
still raining and its a little after 5am.
Hi, guy! I am utterly agree with this way of assessment and everything joined.
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