Good Sunday evening everyone. I wanted to take this time in between conference championship games to drop by for a few quick thoughts on the weather.
In the short term… we have a burst of light snow and flurries that will be crossing the state overnight into early Monday. This may drop a light accumulation in many areas… especially the northern half of the state. You can track the flakes here…
Our Winter Storm Threat continues for late Tuesday into Wednesday. I have seen nothing to change my thought process on all this and it’s good to see the NWS folks talking about the potential.
The European Ensembles have joined the fray with a track from Louisiana into the Carolinas…
That matches up fairly well with the operational European model and is very close to my thoughts on the track of this storm.
The JMA model continues to spit out some impressive precipitation totals for the entire region…
In looking more and more at the GFS and NAM… it would appear they are having some feedback issues. The GFS looks like it’s jumping the surface low directly underneath where it is showing the deepest convection. That is likely the reason we are seeing it have so many issues at the moment. Of course… there is always the chance these models are right and tonight’s model runs will be a good judge on east verses west for the low track. Will the American models correct west or stay the course? Will all the other models hold with the westward track? Time will tell. 
Kickoff is underway… take care. 
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1st?
😀
1st not from E-Town?
Enjoy the game CB. We appreciate everything you do.
I’m wanting snow tonight and Tuesday!
Wow! That JMA map has Louisville getting 1″ QPF, so the potential for up to 10″! I’m starting to get excited! BOTS!!!
Thanks Chris!
Snow is comin’ my way!!! 🙂
Maybea snow map later on???
Thanks for the updates Chris 🙂
Eagerly awaiting 00Z runs. 18Z runs of GFS and NAM both look like a 1″ snow for Kentucky…if that.
I’m up near Cincinnati so what slender hope I have is hanging on the accuracy of the JMA….
1″ or 1’…lol
What are the snow chances for the Etown area tonight? Any hope for another snow day?
And then Mon/Tuesday?
well if you only look at those 2 models it would be 1 inch
The track of that low seems to be awfully far east. Would love to get more qualified eyes to weigh in with their opinion, but to me that looks like a big miss for central Ky. Any thoughts?
wlex tv gave a forcast of rain changing to snow sometime weds. some accumlation
Chris,
Thanks, you are the best. Looks good on the precipitation totals. What are the temperatures suppose to be for the days of the upcoming storm. The other mets are giving like in the 40s. What is up with those temps. Chris I have faith in your prediction, but what maps are they using to get these temps? What time are you going to do the live chat? Thanks for taking the time to update us we are all trying to wait patiently but it is hard. I hoping for some snowfall maps later.
The JMA looks good to me. Everyone across the state would get a big snow and everyone would be happy and not complain anymore. lol
i wouldn’t expect anything until either Halftime or end of the game
You people say “other mets” lets think about this how many times have those “other mets” been right?…and i remember a few weeks ago a certain NBC meteorologist said the reason why his snow totals were so wrong was because trained spotters didnt know how to measure. hahahahh classic
moderation, oh how I hate you!!!
This is the first time I have posted on this board, but I have been following it for over a year now. Looks like we have a lot of folks on here from Clay County! I for one would love to see at least 10-12 inches.
The JMA model is my best friend right now…
Who would like to join me for a snow dance?
Is the JMA Model reliable? It seems like the modem is picking up A LOT of moisture.
What does this system mean for hardin co?
Sorry, but I don’t understand all the weather jargon that you’re sharing. Can you just tell me what the weather is predicted to do?
i am in clay co. and i would love to see a foot of snow..:D
LOL The JMA looks awesome, but in reality, it is one of the most inaccurate and crappy models there is. I wouldnt get too excited folks. If CB doesnt go into ALERT mode tonight, dont get excited. We have missed it.
I’m in Lincoln!
JMA model is one of the most inaccurate and crappy models there are. I dont even know why CB puts it up there. Its reliability is around 15%. If CB doesnt go into alert mode after tonights model runs, dont get excited. It has missed us.
Would be really pushing it for much to get that far west. 🙁 I think the big question zone right now is the I-75 corridor.
Not yet 😉 The tools they use to predict the weather are all busy bickering at each other!
Then again though, if you’re partial to the JMA model there’s hope yet. 😉
Folks this thing is going to miss us. BANK ON IT. I wouldnt be surprised to even see rolo agree. Temps are gonna be too warm and the low is gonna be too far south and east. bash if you want, but we are not gonna get hit very hard at all.
Henry seems to be on board with Chris… I apologize is this was posted in the earlier CB post.
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/44821/sunday-afternoon-storm-map-update.asp
I would like to know where the 40 degree temps are coming from? Other weather forecasts are giving that with a mix of rain and snow. What is your thoughts one the temperatures? This winter and last year’s winter are much like the ones I had when I was younger.
Thanks for all you do.
Jen
Could someone link the most recent euro model run? When are the next GFS/NAM model runs?
Weather.com is now showing precip only for southern states, so its taking the eastern track out to sea… according to them anyways.
I’m dancing for snow and for joy since the Packers won! A Big snow would make my week!
Rain, rain go away! The Lex TV stations are calling for rain..what’s up with that! Think white stuff…Here in Somerset we want snow:)
This one is missing us folks. Plain and simple. The cows have come home and the fat lady has sang. It’s ova’!
For the first time really this winter, CB and B.Goode from wave-3 lou seem to be on opposite ends on the ideas of the possible track and models for that matter. He doesn’t see the Lou area even really sniffing at a chance for ANY accumulation, let alone 5-10″ as a couple models have suggested. He is more in line with GFS/NAM. CB has said he thinks both of these are out to lunch and seen a possible problem within their outputs. Very interesting since both of these guys are really good at what they do. Like CB said, there’s more to forecasting than just looking at the American Models (gfs/nam) and once other state METs realize this we will all be better off for it.
Chris,
Just curious on your thoughts on the temps. Do you think everyone will mainly stay at and below freezing on Tuesday, Wednesday or does southeast Ky. have a good chance at a mix?
On Jim caldwell blog he says the gas is coming around to the other models?? Is that new it was posted at 7:20?
I noticed he gave a 1 twix index.
I was like WHA…?
We’ll see how it plays out. I like BG too, but I tend to trust CB more. Interesting…
the gas or the gfs? lol
Hmmmmm….
The Euro is garbage and even Bailey himself finally admitted to it, so yeh, I’ll stick with those two models for now. The Canadian and JPA are almost like “toy” models to me. They typically couldn’t find their way out of a paper bag.
Last week I disagreed with my boy Goode, but this week I’m right there with him. I see no way we get hammered by this storm.
To clarify, Brian didn’t say he agrees with a certain model yet. Just that he doesn’t see the potential for much right now. I respect very few insights. But Brian G. Is one of them, and that’s why Idk yet which way im even leaning, lol…didn’t want to speak incorrect words on BG’s point of view.
I know the pending storm is the hot topic, but I was wondering if any of the blue I see on radar is hitting the ground? 1/2 inch or so on top of out partially iced roads would get us another snow day.
There’s no way to make an accurate prediction at this point. We are predicting a low that hasn’t even formed yet. And I’ll give your prediction a 0 on a scale of 1-10.
Chris wavers like the models. Just keeps everyone hanging on purpose
LOL.
I’d hope Bgoode wouldn’t have the time to say ‘hmmmmm’ on this blog to someone with a personal opinion. Nor the swollen ego.
If he did… dude, way too thin skin.
what dont yall understand…the news stations get to blow this outta proportion tomorrow night, so their ratings go up..that’s why its going to rain right now 😉
Looking at the GFS model’s last run, my guess is it got off track last night when it started showing a westward trend of the low. If you will notice, the model shows the low now taking a severe turn to the east once it gets over the North and South Carolina border. I think what is happening is GFS gets confused from now to about 75 hours out, then gets it’s act together and trys to correct itself to the ‘correct’ path. Which basically means it got our hope up for nothing. Crap! As for the Canadian and Euro models, I still think they are unreliable. But I hope they are right.
I don’t think anyone believes you were speaking ‘incorrect words’ on his insight. I was merely giving my opinion. Seems like everyone gets all bent out of shape when someone doesn’t ***GASP** put a met up on a godlike pedestal. They are human…just like us. 🙂
Chris hasn’t wavered he hasn’t given an opinion other than there is a chance of a storm
Tomorrow will be pre-hammer time. Some of us are gonna get slammed with the white stuff. Maybe all of us. Cheers.
what does this mean to whitely county???
I do believe that Chris has only stated what the models are showing…he hasn’t put out a forcast. If you don’t enjoy looking at the possibilities of snow storms, then go read other weather blogs that are just a Xerox of the NWS forcast that anyone of us on here could write.
Thank you Chris for taking the time to keep us up to date, daily, sometimes more than once, on the weather. I know at my school, Bell Central in Bell County, most of us keep track by your website. It help me plan my lessons around the weather. Some people know I check several times a day to see what you are saying and check with me! Again thank you for keeping us informed. I tell everyone I know to check you out if they wanna know what’s going on weather wise!!!!! God bless you and yours !!
it means lots of snow for SE KY…lots and lots!!!
Would absolutely love a Bubba buster, but still seems east and south east- as it has been all along for the averages. This assumes a decent western shift. Far east and south east could get a big snow and perhaps mid-eastern KY would get a pretty good event.
Rain factor is also a likely issue, but been saying that a while already and “could” cut into totals of snow. Again, IF the system trends west in the first place, since even a far east hit needs a western shift to happen.
Be nice to see CB suggest more than those areas, but seems too far west to happen.
I think folks are getting built up for another fall. Instead of a snow sandwich, this may be a left facing hockey stick planted in the far east / south-east.
Bring on the Bubba buster 🙂 Please.
COME ON NAM!!!
Evansville is experiencing snow at the moment from reports so its hitting the ground. I’d say 1/2 inch is pretty accurate, some may see a dusting some may see up to an inch
Chris has a life other than this blog. He puts his heart into it when he CAN! He does this for free, which shows he has a passion for what he does WELL! Besides, it’s his weekend from WSAZ. Give the man a break.
I was thinking the same thing. We are already on an hour delay with limited buses for tomorrow. It probably wouldn’t take much to cause the PTB to call it.
Keep getting moderated (for the better?)
Are you British? How do you spell “color”? “Colour”? 😉
Still seems mainly a far east and south east chance for a big event. I expect to see perhaps a double digit map for that area and then half for mid-central and the usual scraps for central.
Still see rain as the dark horse with totals, seems rough to assume all that falls is snow, so looking at the total moisture and assuming all snow may be wrong.
Best case for a BIG shift west would be:
Far east & southeast = 12″
Mid central = 8″
Central = 6″
Sharper drop the further west
Thus would assume a big shift west and all falls as snow. A lot of assuming.
Bring on the Bubba buster 🙂
I trust rolo, Bubba G, and Andy Rose..No offense to anyone else, that is just the way it is.(Oh yeah I trust CB too)
Good chance if you are in far east & south-east KY and assuming rain is not a bigger than expected factor. Not seeing a mega shift to be a big snow for others, but who knows? Nobody on earth, ATM 😉
Been moderated twice already….
If this clipper puts Scott Co. out tomorrow for school, I’m going to slam my face into a wall. Help?
I’m in Clay Co., too! A bunch of us hillbillies have internet, don’t we?
Starting to snow lightly in Louisville. Wouldn’t mind getting this small system to crank out an inch here. Radar looks descent. Just confirming its NOT verga.
Chris has a life other than this blog. He puts his heart into it when he CAN! He does this for free, which shows he has a passion for what he does WELL! Besides, it’s his weekend from WSAZ. Give the man a break. I would turn to none other than CB. 🙂
00Z NAM still goes to sea with it. I think there’s going to be a lot of hurt feelings when we get nothing from this storm.
Are you talking an inch of snow Wxman or liquid? Also what are your thoughts for east and se Ky?Could it possibly be too warm and have rain or a start with rain Thank you?
The NAM takes the low all the way off the coast and slows the storm down. Still not giving up hope. Why is it the American models are east and the Foreign models are west?
If this puts anyone out of school, I don’t know hat I’ll do.
Agree with Jennifer in that Chris hasn’t put out a forecast yet. I sometimes believe he does spice it up a bit with showing the models that are putting out the most and then saying that’s not what he’s predicting but then he puts a smiley face with a wink. He likes to keep things interesting and like most of us on here, he loves winter. Can’t argue with that. 🙂
We welcome you posting.I am in Pikeville where are you located and think snow.
All my pleasure.
Games over, get back to the weather 🙂
Thats like asking why are american cars shit, and foreign cars are legit.
I looked at all the models and I dont see hardly any snow for Ky at all………………But I don’t claim to know what I’m talking about either….I hope i’m wrong..lol
Hey Charlie, I know that you are checking out the blog. What do you think is going to happen?
Storm is starting to crank up now in TX. Seems to be developing a little further west instead of more in LA? But that doesn’t mean its not going to move dead east. Trying to be optomistic but still hard to see this thing going north more than east.
Really WXman, is that your official call? Nothing? I don’t think weather guru’s should use concrete terms… Tends to hurt the back side occasionally.. Just saying….
I’m hoping to get 12 out of it, but I think that is best case scenario for us. Probably going to be about 6. Thought some new models came out at 10:00 that would clear things up, but I don’t know much about the models.
Thank you Chris for taking the time to keep us up to date, daily, sometimes more than once, on the weather. I know at my school, Bell Central in Bell County, most of us keep track by your website. It help me plan my lessons around the weather. Some people know I check several times a day to see what you are saying and check with me! Again thank you for keeping us informed. I tell everyone I know to check you out if they wanna know what’s going on weather wise!!!!! God bless you and yours !!
Turf battle in progress. Goode has done a good job taking up for the loss of Belski. I think they are at war. As for me, I am forecasting mid 50’s an SUNSHINE for Tuesday and Wednesday. Followed by boring nothingness for the rest of the winter.
Oh yeah, Rolo’s goat is a gaaaa—ay.
Latest NAM & GFS, both, show less than an inch for all of Kentucky.
Lets hope the Canadian Invasion prevails!
The New NAM model trending south, north,east, and west, The Euro says it’s going to snow in Europe,and the GFS is still out to Lunch.
Another storm to watch? This is from MJ, posted on Brian Goode’s blog. MJ said…
“Actually, the February 1-2 storm set up looks really good. The Euro is showing a good Greenland block which is what we need to get a good storm around here. Plenty of cold air will be in place and that wave in the southern stream looks very healthy on the last two runs of the Euro. Of course we’re still a week out, but the Euro does a good job at sniffing these potentials out. The GFS on the other hand simply over does the arctic blast and shoves the southern stream way south into Mexico. Sorry…but that is the typical GFS bias.” Here we go again already, lol.
What does Chris’s tweet meen? It’s seems like he still thinks we have a chance for snow.
I’m curious as to what it’s looking like now with the new models out. Live chat? Please? 🙂
I’m interested in what we might get in Wayne, Clinton, and Pulaski. When will we have a better idea, or will it all be nowcasting?
NAM heading in the right direction in the upper levels. The surface is a mess. Looks like some serious feedback issues
This is from CB tweet..Whats the serious feedback issues mean?
Anyone think we are going to get more out of this little clipper tonight than what is being predicted?
MJ had a good forecast discussion over at LMK. Jackson also had a decent write up. To be honest, I really thought this would have shifted east by now on all models. The Japanese model is rarely accurate so, I don’t even look at that one, but it sure would be awesome if it did happen! Bottom line, and this is 80% guess, I think we may get some decent snow even in CKY. Maybe not a foot, but these westward shifts are still occuring, and we are getting closer to the event. The wind patterns on the ensembles seem to favor more of a westward shift. Thoughts???
IN OTHER NEWS, that snow in west ky is starting to get its act together.
I cant believe that made it thro moderation land, but funny nonetheless. 🙂
Steelers vs. Packers
Two NFL dynasty’s…
It’s gonna big a shootout…
Still hoping for snow. Maybe the snow coming in will bring very cold temps along with it, like Thursday night’s system. It was a quick change over from sleet to snow here and very little rain. I hope Chris is working on the new post as I type. I am hoping for a snow map that has trended west and we are getting lots and lots of snow. I don’t want to wait on another system. I just want this one to pan out. It will be a let down if we don’t get it, but thats what I get for getting overly excited about a big snow because I know Chris hasn’t put out a forecast yet. He just has told us it is likely this could happen. Please trend west and bring cold temps with you and let this be the one. Keeping fingers crossed that we all get our wish.
I’m no weather expert, for sure, but this little system that’s over western KY is getting moisture feed from the gulf…
Looks like it’s getting stronger…
Experts???
Yeah and a game I will not watch! Only the 2nd Super Bowl I boycotted since I was 5.
You will not boycott… You will watch… You may TELL everyone that you boycotted, but you won’t…
GO STEELERS..!!!
GFS is coming around and would now put down several inches of snow in eastern Ky Tues night and Wednesday. Look for west trend to continue.
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