Good Sunday afternoon everyone. For those of you who are Seinfeld fans… you surely remember the “Serenity Now” episode. That is the mantra of the blog today as we await for more computer model agreement and don’t jump on and off the wagon (another great episode) based on each run.
My time is limited right now, but I wanted to update things to say we are staying the course with the Winter Storm Threat. There is no reason to downgrade or upgrade until we can see where the exact track of the upcoming storm. 
The afternoon model runs find the non American based models in pretty good agreement with a farther west track. The poor GFS continues to be lost in the woods and is an outlier… not only locally, but for the most areas dealing with this storm.
The GFS Ensembles are much farther west with the precip shield. The average is likely skewed a bit to the east by the operation run… here is the current look…
The “smoothed” out ensembles bring more than a half inch of liquid into all of eastern Kentucky.
The Canadian Model continues to show a very wrapped up storm and is farthest west of the major models…
The canadian got some lovin’ today from the UKMET which shows a similar evolution…
The hot off the presses European Model has given up on the eastward solution and made a significant jump westward with the low track and the precipitation shield…
The European is also bring more than a half inch of precipitation into much of eastern Kentucky from late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
For a major snowstorm for much of our region… you want the low to take a track just a smidge westward to what the European Model is showing. That is certainly within the realm of possibilities and a few models are showing that. Will that happen? I can’t tell you that it will or won’t at this time. What I can tell you is there is still more than enough data suggesting the THREAT for a significant snow event for the areas I have outlined.
As soon as the weather community realizes there is a lot more to computer model forecasts than the GFS or NAM… the better off we will all be.
Here is the plan… I will have another update coming at some point early this evening. It is then I will give you some of my early thoughts and not just a model breakdown. I may also have a live chat later this evening, If I can find the time to do it. Please remember… unlike other weather sources, I am a one man band and it can take me some time to get new updates on. I do try to do some normal things in life as well… try being the key word. hahaha SERENITY NOW!!!
Check back later for updates and take care.
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first?
Thanks Chris!
Please….let there be snow in Wodford County!!!
Thank You Chris. I will be waitng to see what happens next. Hoping for the big one! Is there still a chance of snow for tonight in the London area?
I say we all watch football and wait for the next update. If CB still is not sure, we are all kidding ourselves thinking we do.
Go Bears & Steelers!
After all you are a family man and Wynter wants to spend some time with her daddy. 🙂
I agree! Let it snow in Woodford!!
Thanks Chris, now take the ladies shopping…LOL…
Not sure about the Bears for other reasons…. Go Cheeseheads! 😉
u doing great Baily as IVE ALWAYS SAID trudt the euro he is ur frend.
he will trend another 75 miles or so west by d day. looking good i must say foir the REAL SNOW OLD SCHOOL LOVERS IN SE KY AND EAST KY.
i rpredicr 12-15 inches on ground in SEKY
The afternoon SDF NWS Discussion should be interesting, if they are picking out other models.
GO JETS!, go John Connor!
rolo still looking like 8 inches in richmond?i do not know how to read these maps bubba what u think?
Amen! Time to stop refreshing every 5 mins and settle in for 6 hours+ of football.
Chris thanks for all you do for all of us crazy weather lovers!! Enjoy the peace before the storm……wherever it might land at….. thanks again!!
..Wave 3’s BG is giving this storm a ONE TWIX INDEX. Oh my…
I read the blog daily but don’t post often. I just want to say thanks to Chris for taking the time to keep us updated. We appreciate you taking time out of your life to make this blog the best and most accurate anywhere.
Chris “The Man” Bailey. Thank You!!!
ANGEL barring a bad eastern turn which should happen this close in u get a good snow sweetie.
this aftnoon next models runs into even will set the track in stone IMO.
yo VINNY is it a bet. JET taking u out.
Chris, we appreciate you taking time out to do this for all of us, we know you don’t have to.
Hope you have a great Sunday with the family….and thank the wife and kid(s?) for me also. 🙂
there is way to much uncertianity now. take any forecast on accumulations very skeptically.
and Madison and Jessamine and Clark! Let’s make sure we ALL get covered up!
and Madison and Jessamine and Clark! Let’s make sure we ALL get covered up!
Wait for all the models to come to near agreement before getting excited.
Wait for all the models to come to near agreement before getting excited.
Thanks Chris! Stumbled across your site a few weeks ago and use it as the main source now to see what’s going on. The Weather Channel is about as useless as….yeah on a boar hog.
Keep up the good work!!
Nah! PACKERS….all the way!!!!
45 years ago this time in Jan 1966 a blizzard hit the east coast and laid down 2 feet of snow. Anyone curious look up the period 20th – 30th 66 for Virginia — just interesting history.
Football and the possibility of a shutdown snowstorm. Awesome. BOTS!!!
Rolo:
It’s a bet… Jets win, I will end each comment with “ROLO IS THE MAN” for a week…
Steelers win, you end each comment with “VINNY IS THE MAN” for one week…
Bet?
Do not give in to the dark side. GO PACK GO!!!
Thank you Chris!
Thank you Chris!
Even if the GFS takes a major shift to the west, won’t save the Jets. Sorry.
I’m just wondering if anyone can tell me how much the southern part of Floyd County is in for. Any help would be appreciated.
I’ll be honest, I can’t tell anything by the maps posted. I recently found the site and would love to be able to understand everything.
lol I know this because today is my get older day — and always heard stories and last night after reading the CB update decided to finally research the data
At this point, NO BODY knows and if they tell you they do, they’re lying…
I agree 100%
This storm is three days out. There is no way anyone can give an accurate amount any one place will receieve. We will have to wait overnight and Mon. morning to start figuring totals. Up the spine or apps more snow for all KY..East coast less snow for all KY…I don’t see this low tracking up the West side of the Apps. If it does the entire state will have one to talk about…GO PACKERS….
Hey Chris,
I have been coming to this site for 2 yrs now. You are always the most accurate for weather in my area. (Harlan, KY) We appreciate all that you do.
Huge Seinfeld fan and Chris Bailey fan! Two great combination’s!!! 🙂
There looks to be a lot of snow in IL and Missouri, heading toward KY. Any thoughts on if it will hit central KY later on?
Not sure if anyone whose been watching/studying models over the last few years can tell me or not, but is the UKMET and CMC just as reliable within 3 days as the GFS or NAM?
From my knowledge they are not as reliabe. But I could be Wrong.
Chris w/ a new tweet
The radar is showing snow into Western KY, is that hitting the ground and is it moving across the state? Is it expected?
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-240115-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PAOLI…SALEM…SCOTTSBURG…MADISON…
JASPER…MARENGO…TELL CITY…CORYDON…NEW ALBANY…
JEFFERSONVILLE…HAWESVILLE…HARDINSBURG…BRANDENBURG…
BEAVER DAM…LEITCHFIELD…ELIZABETHTOWN…FORT KNOX…
MOUNT WASHINGTON…SHEPHERDSVILLE…LOUISVILLE…LA GRANGE…
BEDFORD…NEW CASTLE…SHELBYVILLE…FRANKFORT…GEORGETOWN…
CYNTHIANA…TAYLORSVILLE…LAWRENCEBURG…VERSAILLES…
LEXINGTON…PARIS…CARLISLE…BARDSTOWN…SPRINGFIELD…
HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…HODGENVILLE…
LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…RICHMOND…MORGANTOWN…
BROWNSVILLE…MUNFORDVILLE…GREENSBURG…CAMPBELLSVILLE…
LIBERTY…STANFORD…RUSSELLVILLE…BOWLING GREEN…FRANKLIN…
SCOTTSVILLE…GLASGOW…TOMPKINSVILLE…EDMONTON…COLUMBIA…
JAMESTOWN…BURKESVILLE…ALBANY
306 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011 /206 PM CST SUN JAN 23 2011/
…LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT…
A SURFACE LOW ENTERING THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
COMBINED WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A HALF AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I 65. HOWEVER…UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEST OF I 65. THE BEST COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE BOWLING GREEN REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO…LOCATIONS NEAR JASPER AND
TELL CITY INDIANA CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO 1 INCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TRAVEL THIS EVENING AND FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE…ESPECIALLY ON
UNTREATED ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION IF THEY
WILL BE TRAVELING THIS EVENING AND DURING THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
$$
BJS
——————————————————————————–
FROM ACCUWEATHER
Treacherous Travel for Kansas City, St. Louis, Louisville By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist
Jan 23, 2011; 5:47 AM ETShare | Snowflakes will fly over Missouri, southern Illinois and western Kentucky today as a storm system edges eastward across the Plains. While significant accumulations are not expected, this system could still cause trouble for weekend travelers.
The snowstorm will drop 1 to 3 inches of snow from northeastern Kansas into western Kentucky today. The wintry weather will then advance towards the Ohio Valley overnight tonight.
Snow will mix with rain along the southern edge of the storm. The slushy mix could make untreated surfaces slippery in parts of southeastern Kansas and the northern parts of Arkansas and Mississippi before the day comes to a close.
On Saturday, this system spread snow from the Rockies and northern High Plains into Missouri by the evening hours. Around half a foot of snow piled up at some locations.
Gusty winds over Montana also led to significant blowing and drifting snow on Saturday. Drifts grew to 4 feet deep in spots, causing some vehicles to become stuck.
The snowstorm will not be as harsh today, but slick roads will still make for dangerous travel. Through tonight, portions of Interstates 70, 64, 44, 65, 57 and 55 could become snow covered and hazardous.
As the weekend wraps up, this system will join forces with a storm piling a few inches of snow over the Upper Midwest today and tonight. On Monday, the snow could lead to slow commutes in many Midwestern cities and towns, including Minneapolis, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis and Cincinnati.
Related to the Story:
South Central Radar
Winter Weather Center
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Chris,
I been thinking trend west all day, I hope it holds true. Please let this be the big one. I can’t wait till the next update. I hope Chris can put some totals on the storm and we are put under a Heavy Snow Storm Warning, if their is such a thing. Let it snow!!!! Thanks Chris for all you do for us. You are the BEST.
The Jackson NWS discussion sounds a lot more promising than pervious discussions. Go take a look!
Read the Louisville Discussion as well (especially from Lex east).
That looks interesting. I am surprised to see the Louisville NWS already talking about watches being posted.
what areas will benefit from the snow showers tonight?? any ideas??? i’m in manchester (clay co.). can we expect anything tonight??
the nws discussions are totally unexpected..they normally don’t get to excited till they see the weather out the windows!! 😛 lol..this storm just may be the one us snow lovers have been waiting on…btw…i live in clay co. so what are the chances we will see any accumulations tonight?? any imput is appreciated!
MAYBE WE WILL GET IN ON THE FUN AFTER ALL… CHECK OUT CB’S LATEST TWEETS!!!
FROM LOUISVILLE NWS: (PART OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION)
FOCUS THIS PERIOD ON POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ON THE SWRN GULF
COAST THAT COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRIMARILY TO THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KY AS WELL AS THE KY BLUEGRASS
REGION FROM LEXINGTON EAST.
UPR LEVEL TROF RUNNING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FCST TO DROP SEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY THRU THE MID MS VLY INTO THE
SRN PLAINS TUE MORNING AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SERN LA
CST AS AN UPR LOW EVOLVES OVER THE SWRN GULF STATES. AT THAT
POINT…WILL FAVOR THE 12Z EURO TRACK OF THE DEEPENING SFC LO…
WHICH IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND CANADIAN.
LOW TRACKS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/GA BORDER BY TUE EVE AND THEN
INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WED MORNING AND TO ERN NORTH CAROLINA WED AFTN.
THIS TRACK WOULD PUSH SNOW INTO SOUTHERN KY TUE AFTN/EVE WITH THE
SNOW SHIFTING INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS OF OUR ERN FA TUE
NIGHT WHEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW WOULD OCCUR. SNOW WOULD THEN BE
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF OUR ERN COUNTIES BY WED AFTN.
THIS SYS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH THAT COULD BE
ISSUED WITH THE PREDAWN PACKAGE MONDAY.
I hate to sound the party pooper of the thread but even if the low tracks further west I think it will be mostly rain. The high Tuesday is upper 30’s and Wednesday is no lower. It usually needs to be much colder for a low that comes from the gulf becuase it brings much warmer temps with it. Although, hopefully since the low is tracking to our east instead of the usual west of us, the counter clockwise spin will pull the cooler air from the north. But I’m not a meteorologist so what do I know. I am still doing the magic snow dance here in Winchester!
I like the fact they are leaning towards the EURO as the model of reason. I guess all is not lost. I still think it may end up a bit too far east for CKY. I hope I am WRONG. Mother Nature has been a cruel mistress to all of us BIG SNOW fans here in CKY for too long! Her rein of SMALL SNOW terror has to end someday!!!
Does anyone think that there is a chance to get any accumulation from the batch of snow off to our west here in eastern Kentucky?
GO JETS beat the Stillers!
You may be right, temp around here is always a concern. Sure would be ironic, considering yesterday morning it was about 0 in the LEX area.
It is possible with this powerful of a low pressure center though to get DYNAMIC COOLING. Here is the definition for the NWS on that:
Dynamic cooling
Cooling that results from decreasing pressure. Therefore, dynamic heating results from increasing pressure. Because the pressure gradient is much stronger in the vertical than in the horizontal, ‘dynamic’ changes in temperature due to expansion or compression are more likely to occur from vertical motion than from horizontal motion.
Hope that lifts the spirits a bit on avoiding a COLD RAIN. This is also what took place for the “98 dusting”
I’m still hanging onto hope CB…. You’re latest tweets are keeping me hangin on
What does 1/2 inch of liquid amount to in snow?
About 5 inches of snow.
So I finally was able to update the website.. riddlesweather.com or click my name. Ive been trying to install new speakers in my 03 nissan altima, but ive given up hope.hahah its just to cold out there today.
CB just confirmed nothingchange from yesterday morning, this storm a coming and its going be a dangerous one. i dont know were u people got it obver, budt,etc thisd morning the euro coming bavck around as cabndien dgex etc, now yea lkexinton C KY not going get over a foot but uds seky snowbirds are. BUT a little more west movementthen lext afoot and SE KY 2 feet.
3-6 inches a good bet for lex to louisville 1-3 around bwg west.
So for every inch, thats ten inches of snow? “WOW”
Thanks Momma
Rolo…why is the NWS in Jackson so slow into coming around to this?
it could be more if it is colder, snow ratios are higher than 10:1. so say snow ratios go to 15:1 you get 15 inches out of 1 inch liquid..
What does all this mean for Bowling Green, KY? I’m not very good at reading the maps. Thanks Chris for all your hard work on all this!!!
to busy playing WoW 🙂
OK I JUST CHECKED OUT THE LATEST NAM AND GFS. NEITHER SHOW A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FOR EVEN SE KY. I MAY BE LOOKING AT THE WRONG RUN OR SOMETHING, BUT I REALLY DIDNT EVEN SEE ANYTHING THAT COULD EVEN PROMPT A WWA. SOMEONE ENLIGHTEN ME PLEASE AND TELL ME THAT IM WRONG AND SE KY IS GOING TO GET A GOOD SNOW.
Probably stuck in WoW snow…lol
Thanks for the update, Chris. Been getting your tweets all afternoon. Sounds like POSSIBLE fun and games….
really hoping you consider live chat tonight, but, would settle for frequent comments, as well. (or tweets.)
Tell Mrs. Bailey and Wynter that we thank them for sharing you with us, and I for one certainly appreciate the time you take to do this blog for us weather lovers. We know you don’t have to do this, and we love you because you DO do this.(and because you are one heck of a meteorologist!) 🙂
Has anyone heard IF an artic high will be coming in behind this mid-week storm? Just wondering if we will be able to get out and play in the snow or IF it will freeze?
Like most of you I read this website habitually, because CB is the most accurate forecaster in the area. Thanks to CB we have been aware of the pending snow for a few days now. On the way home today I was listening to WDHR out of Pikeville and their forecast was chance of snow tonight with rain tomorrow, chance of snow Monday night with rain Tuesday. Listening to the local radio is very misleading.
chatty, probably will but from what I read of the forecast discussion, not likely until a bit later in the week, after the passage of another front. Anyone else?
Here is the lastest Low projection from NWS…
OK, two comments now gone to moderation heaven….so, guess my thoughts will have to remain just with me…. 😉
well your looking at to shoddy models so you prob are wrong 😉
Had a cousin in Carolina on the shore yesterday. They called for cold rain and they got 7 inches. Dynamic cooling.
Thanks Chris man, for all you do on here and for us! I hope this thing does turn into a big ass snow storm for us…but as I said last night, I still don’t see it..I think it’s going to head up the East Coast..possibly throw back a couple inches for some areas of Ky..and that’s about it..yeah, I still remain optimistic haha..just my opinion of how it looks and the trends that occur for this area.
If I’m looking at them correctly… and I very well may not be — I clicked on the NAM, 4 panel charts and then from there are charts like 066 – 084 (since those are the charts from late Tuesday through Wednesday). If I’m doing it correctly, it’s still showing SE KY in the 1-2 inch liquid precipitation range.
Again… I may be reading those totally wrong. Any experts care to help out on this one?
Still waithing patiently!!! I have my fingers and toes crossed though!
UMMMM ARE THEY NOT PROJECTING ANYTHING CUZ I AM NOT SEEING IT.
1-2 in precipitation maens 10-20 inch snow, if the ratio is 10:1.
Probably for the same reason that Chris hasn’t. The NWS says there is a possibility there but still uncertainty which is what Chris is saying. Even Chris hasn’t made a predicition yet.
That’s not total QPF…..its only 4 panel for that current time. so you need to click on fine and figure out the total…
Still very concerned and confused! Live 35 minutes from town and need to plan ahead for work and childcare. Weather stations only sayin an inch or so and temps close to 50! Hoping for snow though. Update me please! Live on the ky,va,tn border:)
Seems the NWS is predicting temperatures WELL above freezing all week for Lake Cumberland area. Anything that happens at night after change over would become a slushy mess the next day!
Seems the NWS is predicting temperatures well above freezing for the lake cumberland area all week. Anything that falls during the overnights would become a slushy mess the next day!
Are you in Hancock county?
wlex just gave rain and snow for tues and wed, no mention of winter storm, very little accumulations, come on people what is going on … how can there be so much difference??
Chris will be thorwing us a bone before too long….or a bird song (tweet);)
He is a football fan, too…..
i just seen the same thing, we will get more snow tonight than this stupid “big” storm … i say bring on spring and forget about it …. i am ready to start cleaning my golf clubs.
Yep I just saw that myself by what there saying to warm for snow mostly rain I have a bad feeling about this storm might be a wash out, lots of good ole cold KY rain that’s been the norm over the past 10 years or so.
Seems the NWS is predicting temperatures well above freezing for the lake cumberland area all week. Anything that falls during the overnights would become a slushy mess the next day!
Just checked the nws forecast for lake cumberland area & temps are waaaay above freezing everyday this week. Anything that fell overnight’s would be a slushy mess the next day.
i just saw lex 18 give rain 4 tue and changing to snow around 12pm in lex something isnt right
Whoa… where did this little snowmaker come from today? NWS is saying we could get an inch of snow tonight? I am totally clueless. Paying too much attention to the “big” storm I guess…
Anyways, I’ll take all we can get 😉
Seems like the moisture may be in place…but the temps are gonna crash the party 🙁
i cant believe were so close and it still may miss us
Houston we have problems
A Louisville station says nothing to worry about ??
I say wait for Chris’s update before being let down too much. 🙂
for every 10th of an inch of liquid equals 1 inch of snow… so you are looking at around 5in.
NEW POST.
Claiborne
Tazewell, Harrogate, New Tazewell? 🙂
Chris, thank you so much for your hard work! I just found out about your blog a couple of weeks ago, and have been following it faithfully over my past weather resources. You are awesome – always on target! I trust you above any station. Keep up the spectacular work!
As a side note, can you do us teachers a favor and increase the upcoming snow totals in the Louisville area? You can tell a storm what to do, right? Haha. 🙂