Good Sunday everyone and thanks for checking out our little slice of weather heaven. All eyes are on the potential for a major winter storm to develop and impact much of the eastern half of the country during the next several days. The overnight computer models took a little westward jog with the forecast track of the low putting our region more in play. It doesn’t mean they are right… but, if you are a snow lover, that’s a better trend for you than having it go east. 
The blog upgraded to a Winter Storm Threat Saturday afternoon and we continue in Threat mode for Tuesday into Wednesday. THREAT means there is an increased risk for a significant snow event for our region. This is NOT a certainty and is basically a heads up to the potential I am seeing. Here is the risk map…
I will be updating that map later today as I get more confident in the track of the low. Speaking of the track of the low… every single model run Saturday night came west with this storm. The GFS and European Models had been the last to see the light… but both made significant westward adjustments and I suspect they are not done.
The NAM model has a track and setup that is a good one for big snows across much of the state…
That run of the NAM would deliver a possible shutdown snow for the eastern half of the state. Again.. that’s if we assume it’s right. That run does look a lot like the prior runs I had posted of the Canadian and JMA models.
The GFS Ensembles have been trending toward something similar…
The mean of the GFS Ensembles puts down more than a half inch of liquid all the way back into central Kentucky with more than .75″ in the east. Keep in mind… that is the smoothed out version as it’s an average of many different runs.
As of now… it all comes down to the track of the low. The farther west the track into the Carolinas… the better the risk for a significant snow event. The farther east the low goes… the lower the chances for snow. I will get more specific with my thoughts later today… but the fact I upgraded to a Threat should tell you something about where my head is.
Oh yeah… your weather today will feature more of the same with cold temps and some flurries or a touch of light snow. 
Lots of updates coming your way today so be sure to check back and I may even go with a live chat this evening.
Have a great Sunday and take care.
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Who stands the best chance for light snow later today? Thanks for the hard work and dedication.
I kknow I need to get a life! Can’t sleep for some reason tonight.
Been following these low pressure movements and have been generally disappointed that they don’t come over us in Central KY…hopefully this one will deliver. Have put on Smokey Robinson’s hit ‘Tracks of My Tears’. Have a good day everyone
Oh Chris, This westward jog thing is making me like a kid in a candy store. Looking forwRd to all the updates coming our way today. Thanks for all you do for the blog Chris. I personAlly would be lost without it. Everybody think WEST today 😉
🙁 I know there are alot of snow lovers on here and Im glad this winter has been a blast for you but its been too much and the fact we are only half way through this 🙁 oh well I know Chris is gonna be right about this so I might as well just do good to deal with it 😀
6-10 east ky. 2-43 Central ky. That’s always a safe bet!!!!!
okay that definitely was suppose to say 2-4 hahah
Mostly cloudy Tuesday with snow, slight chance of rain unless the sun breaks out.
I’m very happy with the current information.
I’m excited to see what the 12z runs have to say tomorrow. night all. happy snow dreams
06Z NAM goes blonde, and takes moisture with it.
The gfs shifted south and east also. But I’ve heard that the 6z and 18z gfs and nam are’nt as reliable as the 0z and 12z. Will someone with more weather knowledge confirm this?
You are correct James. I have seen over the years where the 00Z and 12Z runs are taken more seriously than the 6/18Z runs, especially this far out. I was amazed how different both models were over one 6 hr run.
Looks like temps to warm for snow near the Louisville area for Monday and Tuesday. I dislike rain on cold January and February days. Love the blog.
Well, I figured that 2-43″ would be a pretty safe bed, lol!
LMK thinks its gonna rain!!!!
All rumors and myths. I used to believe the same thing. Most models are going to have ‘bad’ runs no matter which initialization time. However, as we get closer to the main event, consistency and trends are what we look for then and hopefully agreement between the models.
Dang,the models don’t like us this morning…Think I’ll go back to bed and hope this is just a dream..
Morning all….I don’t want to be the “Debbie Downer” here as they say, however, I was looking at the NAM, GFS, & the GEFS (ensembles) and I just don’t see any of us getting much except for far se KY. Even then that seems to be a stretch. This storm looks to go over GA and head out to the coast. Plus, the AIR temps have not even been clearly defined. I understand there will be dynamic cooling and all with a strong low, but this one just doesn’t seem to pack the punch. I am starting to believe the 06Z NAM is onto something by moving this out towards the coast. I want a big snow just like everyone else, but I am afraid this one just isn’t meant to be. Wishful thinking only goes so far. Sorry to start your Sunday off that way guys, but….I just don’t see it. BubbaG- 1 ticket aboard please!!!
I am hoping by posting this, mother nature will prove me WRONG and bury us here in CKY under about a foot of the good stuff (and by good stuff I mean snow, I haven’t ever seen it rain Bourbon) 🙂 🙂 🙂
Winter time soap operas:
‘As the Low Turns’
‘The Worried and the Restless’
Is this not the same setup as the 1994 storm were they called for a dusting in louisville and we ended up with 20+ inches
16.9 inches not 20.
Can someone tell me what models come out at what time?
Don’t lose all hope, because 18z did this to us last night after the great 12z runs. Then 0z came around, with new upper air data, and look!!! It shows a snowstorm. The 6z/18z models runs should be taken into consideration, but not as much as the 12z/0z runs.
We had 21″ a few miles north of Stamping Ground.
Search for Tomorrow “lows”
The Guiding “low”
All My Children “want snow”
Dark Shadows “in The Carolinas”
The Secret Storm “Where”
I could go on but they would have to take me to the “General hospital”
Which models have been more reliable this year?
I looked at the extended outlook on Accuweather.com and it is showing for it to 50 degrees in London on Tuesday. Every tine I look at the forecast in there it is always wrong
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
Thank you!
Jackson Weather Service still doesn’t seem to think that we are in for any significant snow…even giving rain/snow mix for Monday/Tuesday…
You are correct. We now get to the point where some folks may rationalize based on the model that looks the best, rather than the average of the models. Minus perhaps an outlier model (a model that’s forecast solution is crazy), the average is almost always the way to go.
The average of the models for this event were first west, then east and now west again. Large serving of waffles if east again 😉
Point is this is still a coin flipper, but better than if they kept trending east and never went west again. In other words: There is still a chance.
I use the average of the models.
Morning. Can anybody on here think of agood song with “yo-yo” in the title? It seems that is what we have as far as models go. Still, I think I will do like Chris suggests and not get too hung up just yet about the whole thing. If it snows, it snows, and if not, well, it doesn’t…..still, need the name of a good yo-yo song for the models right now….;)
Part of the issue with the models now is warm air. They will not show a lot of snow if above 32 degrees (not as simple as that, but in general).
Two key dynamics going on here folks: Actual path of the event and temperatures (rain/snow). The system can nail the whole state but not much good if warmer air and would seriously impact totals in any case. This would be fittingly ironic, considering our current very cold temps.
Just as I expected deep down. The dream is over.
JKL now giving a chance for Rain/Snow on Tues/Wed.
“No spotter activation inticipated.”
that’s been my concern but i was told no chance of rain
really dont know why there debbie downers, nothing changed watch the next 2 runs show u a STORM and dont get caught up in above freezing temps. some of the biggest snows ever were at 34-35 degrees.
Ok CB, I was trying not to get excited, trying to just go with the flow… but there you go talking about many updates and even a live chat and now I’m thinking– well if CB is this excited about it…. 😉
ARGH! every time I get hopeful I get slapped in the face by 2-4 inches!!! Bleh..
again some of the biggest snowstorms started out with rain, geesh u guys say i am bad about being bi polar.lol
heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Jackson NWS is NEVER right and I mean NEVER!!
Bring it on. Im in the sweet spot once again this Winter.
Coffeelady, I don’t know any “yo-yo” titles…but how about
Rubber Band Man?
I loved The Spinners.
Anyone else seeing flurries this morning? What about what is to the west right now? Will that bring us any snow tonight?
Very very light flurries have developed in Louisville and I do mean very light almost not worth mentioning but i will anyway.
To quote Chris: “I will get more specific with my thoughts later today…
but the fact I upgraded to a Threat should tell you something about where my head is.”
Remember, the Death Star exploded. 🙂
Thanks, Chris, for all the updates this weekend — you’re all over it, as usual! The warmer temps coming in before the storm don’t worry me — didn’t temps warm in E.Ky. last Thursday while Central Ky. was in the midst of a snow storm? That’s simply part of a southern jet storm and part of Ky.’s unique weather!
Morning all. Go to http://www.wunderground.com and take a look at the precipation (amount and type) on their NDFD graph. Overall light snows for central KY with a period of heavy snow over FAR southeast and eastcentral KY through Wednesday. Looks to have light and long wrap arounds for most though. NO MAJOR event! Alas, poor Yorrick….
12z NAM doesn’t look real promising.
Start looking ahead towards the next system the 12z nam is not that promising.
some of you people are sooo negative. I don’t see why you post here if all your going to be is negative good grief.
Think averages. It ain’t over yet, but yea that run wasn’t a good one.
Think averages. It ain’t over yet, but yea that run wasn’t a good one.
Jon,
Not negative at all. Just being pragmatic. I am as hopeful as the rest. Just using my eyes, ears and common sense!. I LOVE this website.
It looks like the temps are going to be our demise. Temps in the 40’s
The snowflakes outside my window are trying to fall hard enough to classify them as a light snow.
Looking forward to CB’s post or tweet to support a continued west trend. Seems that in order for east KY to have a chance, the shift has to take place anyway. A BIG shift needs to take place for the totals CB mentions to impact the state. Respectfully not seeing it, but I am not a met by any stretch of imagination.
Also not seeing how warm air will not be a factor, but again- not a met, so there you go.
Regardless, if an eastern waffle happens this late in the game, it will be hard to spin gold out of it.
Now if I could just figure out which button to click…..lol
The models are all wrong,,its gonna snow at least 3 feet in the whole state…Will take days to dig out..
There now,are you happy…
No, it does not really. However, in other developments, last nights Euro run shows the Greenland block redeveloping with the potential for a good system to impact the Ohio Valley around February 1-2.
Been with this post for 6 months now. Thought it was time to begin to give my input.
No, it does not really. However, in other developments, last nights Euro run shows the Greenland block redeveloping with the potential for a good system to impact the Ohio Valley around February 1-2.
yes…that is MUCH better.
Yikes! CB posted this ten hours ago, so not like from recent runs. Curious if CB is as confident now as ten hours ago. East waffle at this point would be rough. I hate waffles.
Well, on to the next storm I say; besides, I could use rain around here, awful dry and when it is all said and done people, we have another good 4 – 6 weeks of possible Winter events, so, lets try not to be too negative and if the super long-range projections are correct about global cooling, our friend Old Man Winter will make an early appearance for Winter 2011/2012
If this thread was posted later this morning rather than before 1AM, it would be more encouraging.
Death Star did , but Darth made it 😉 🙁
The amount is not the point 16.9 or what ever amount fell at your house.
12z NAM & GFS both in solid agreement: Storm will be too far east to effect 80~90% of the state…
Can we now all move on and hope, wish PRAY for an early spring..?
Back yard grills, cornhole, cold (adult beverage… Come on gang, SPRING-SPRING-SPRING….
GO STEELERS..!
you will all be singing a different tune later today 😉 trust me.
12z runs are a killer so far for snow It looks like now light snow from paducah to bwg into southeast ky with the highest amounts along the VA border.
I would like more snow too but I think about another week or less of this and I will be over this Season too
What about the Louisville area?
So once again why does anyone pay attention to models when they mean absolutely nothing. & days out has a bettter than 95% chance of being dead wrong. 3 days out it’s not much better.
Whens boarding time Bubba?
Should say (7 days out has a bettter than 95% chance of being dead wrong. 3 days out it’s not much better.)
Perhaps CB will have the last laugh, but surprised CB would be so confident so early with this thread. Nothing now in about eleven hours and a lot can change (as it appears to have).
Using the CB post and tweet gap factor, my guess is Darth Bubba should makes sure all bunk beds are made and ready for apprentices/customers to board.
Best case seems (far east / se) for big snow, but Darth Bubba has been saying that for a while.
Seems Obe Wan CB will need to use the Force to turn this puppy west. We are getting too late into the runs for the model solutions now to be simply a case of waffles.
Going running a few miles now. Friday night, I could not feel my face, about half way through- COLD!
Moderation nation.
Surprise CB seemed was so confident so early when he posted. CB post and tweet gap factor has not failed us yet. Not a good sign, IMO.
Going running now 🙂 🙁
I am the one who complains about having to take care of a farm full of animals and a house full of dogs and cats, so spring can’t come soon enough as far as I’m concerned. I discoverd yesterday that if I walk outside in my comfortable houseshoes, the snow sticks to the soles and then when I step inside onto the wood floors — Wipeout! That’s a funny show on TV, but in real life, no thanks. 🙂
This is ridiculous one bad model run and everyone jumps ship, everyone here would be like bill meck 😉 hahah the morning he says it will snow, and at night he says it will rain…you see the pattern lol
Yeah, Accuweather generally screws up their winter forecasting. For instance, for the big pre-Christmas storm last winter (Dec 2009) they predicted a couple of inches for us in SE Ky, and we of course received nearly a foot. I usually discount their forecasts nowadays. Chris will give you the best forecasts out of all of them!
I think all of the regulars on here knows that Chris’s silence speaks volumes….praying for lots of snow still 🙂
guys this wasnt the usual excitment we was 3,5 days out not a week.
and it still trying to burst our bubble. i think this evening weuro will show SE E KY getting a good one.
moderation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙁
CHRIS IS EWAITING ON LATER RUNS, HE KNOWS THAT 3 DAYS OUT IT HAD THE STORMS, AND HE THINKING THEY WILL SHOW BACK UP WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK. THAT WHY NO POST. NO NEED TOO YET.
hahha read my tweet to him? I love the very end, everyone is jumping ship..except rolo hahah how ironic rolocoaster 😉
Rolo I am hoping for the same thing!
Im in agreeance with rolo here, as much as rolo likes to go back and fourth he still knows the usual trend of storms around here. Now worries folks!
Any chance of that blue to our west putting anything down?
While this storm may pass us by, last nights Euro showed the Greenland block coming back strong by the end of the month. That is a significant feature that we need to get stuff in here. There is good potential around 2/1 to 2/2 for an event. Very good support from the Euro ensembles as well.
Rolo, How lang till the next run? You think Chris will update at that time?
yes. look at my site haha
Can you give us a link Lincoln?
The 12z nam and gfc are almost identical..But to my untrained eye they look alot better than what they did this morning..Don’t give up yet folks,this evening i believe will start to see another westward movement…
Click Lincoln’s name, and you will go to the site.
I am really going to think positive on this snow….
If the 0z runs tonight are showing nothing, then we have something to be worried about.
like i said these storms have 2-3 possible tracks…and those tracks exclude most of KY from big snow. track one ohio river counties get a hit. track 2 eastern seaboard gets hit. or track 3 quietly out to sea thanks to a dominant northern jet. 3 is looking possible.
flurries.
if the 12z euro comes in similar to it’s 00z run then all but the VA border counties and the TN border counties are pretty much done for.
I can only go by absolutes and this long of a gap 12hrs for a post and 13hrs for a tweet, the news has NEVER been good. CB ALWAYS posts if things are looking good.
CB is also more cautious if the news is bad and likes to make sure before pulling back.
Seems very un-CB to be so confident so early, especially with the model waffles.
I have a feeling Chris will be posting soon. The CMC and UKMET are running, and guess what? They seem to be west.
Does anyone have information concerning the dynamics of the February 3 – 6 1998 snowstorm. This is the only storm I can think of that is remotely similar to our situation.
We were supposed to get a cold rain, and we ended up with a ton of snow. Even here in Louisville. It was never frigidly cold with system either. The upper level low seemed to create its own cold air.
Any thoughts?
Strike that! 14hour tweet gap.
My suggestion is Enes will start at center for the Cats, before anywhere but far east KY gets a big snow with this.
Bubba buster?
i havent updated the site today, but it does still cover tonights potential snow
I totally disagree..I see the jet stream shifting ever so slightly northward pulling the low pressure at a westward track and hopefully it won’t warm the temps up to much..Now hows that..I ain’t no meterologist but i did stay at the holiday inn last night..
Catch is there has to be a west shift so far east KY gets the action. Bigger (of course) shifts for more of KY.
The 98 storm was a narrow system. Shifted west 75 miles in the final few hours. East KY was supposed to get thumped, but it was mainly central KY. Our last BIG snow.
With today’s models, faster computer solutions and satellite input, such a sudden shift not being picked up is less likely.
That said, the more complex models seems to be what messes up long range outlooks. TOO many much data can be bad.
Still, CB is the main met in the region for being correct and is paid the big bucks to nail these things 🙂
A new tweet from CB..Patience Young grasshoppers
Rolo is IMO correct to think the east and se have a shot for a big snow. The issue of debate is about the other 80% of the state 😉
PATIENCE IS THE KEY THAT NOT ME A TWEET FROM BAILEY. SO TRUST ME WERE GOING GET A HEAVY WET SNOW IN se ky.
in SE KY…what about Central KY??
How funny! Just logged on and told the wife, “Watch this, you’ve never seen so many ups and downers out of the same model runs in your life” LOL, I’m with rolo.
Not negative…Just opinions…I am on this blog every day and a little more when there are storms possible…If the models aren’t going in my direction I give my OPINION which is not negative, but a Positive OPINION off the current models…JUST SAYING…This is a weather blog and the weather will change every six to 12 hours depending on the model(s) we are looking at.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR TWO CENTS TO THE WEATHER AND NOT TOWARDS opinions BEING MADE…THINKS SNOW…
yes you got it dynamical cooling!
Thus the confusion and perception. The issue of debate is not really far east and se KY, but the other 80% of the state.
CB has always assumed some level of shift to the west (as his map yesterday showed), but the big question is will it shift FURTHER west and impact more of the state?
CB suggested in his last post that he is leaning to Yes and a new tweet seems to continue support of this.
The GEM is way west and takes the low up the Apps giving Kentucky a direct hit. People are giving up way to early here. A couple of the big east coast storms this year looked like they were going to ride out to sea two days out, but they all came back west and pounded the east coast.
From Jackson NWS:
“THE FORECASTING PROBLEM IS THAT WHILE PRECIP IS LIKELY IN THE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD…THE TRACK FOR DETERMINING
THE SNOWFALL IS STILL IN QUESTION. THUS WE CAN OFFER LITTLE
ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO THE FORECAST WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANGE
BEING AN INCREASE IN POPS TO LOW LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.”
In other words, relax.
Rolo has always been focused on far east and south east KY. They have not really been the big question for a big snow, since positioned fairly well, even for a slight west shift.
The million dollar ? has always been a more westerly shift that impacts more of the state.
well looked to me like the canadian run is stronger and wetter. showing rain to heavy,wet snow for central and east ky…this model has been fairly consistant with this storm for a couple days now…
I can’t relax….I am going to London tomorrow and dont want to get stuck down there in a hotel. LOL
I totally digagree..The jet stream is shifting ever so slightlt northward and thus will turn the low pressure system into a slightly westward shift and bring more moisture with it thus giving us another 5 inches ontop of the 20 we alredy have..Now has that.. I ain’t no Meteorologists but i did sleep in a holiday Inn last night…
12z GGEM went really far inland on this run cutting up through Chattanooga and then up the spine of the apps.
Ky. gets slammed in this model…. Come back toward the light.
they haven’t changed it since Friday
Probably for good reason..Because it is TOO EARLY! 🙂
Can you post a link for this? I need hope.
Obviously, this model is the last best chance for north cen. ky. Do you have the latest run with the nogaps. (Hey I am desperate).
so will some one tell me is louisville blocked out of this storm? do i have any hope?
CB has not updated because he’s a church man on Sundays. He will update shortly!!
Anybody viewed the most recent models? Im with you rolo, lets stay strong its gonna happen my friend.
Chris,s last tweet said euro was much farther west. Is that compared to the earlier today run or what?
I wish Chris would update us to calm our nerves…lol
GFS ensembles show the operational gfs as an outlier.
GFS ensembles show the operational gfs as an outlier.
CHRIS GETTING A POST READY TO SAY EAST/SE KY GOING GET SHUT DOEWN LATEST EURO SMAKDOWN AS I TOLD U RATLLED TRAPS OVER THE 6Z RUNS.
START PEPARINF FOR 10 PLUS INCHES IN SEKY TO VS BORFDER.
I really hope that all of Kentucky gets a big snow. I would really hate it if only EKY got big snow and everyone else (including me) missed out.
reading tea leaves, or is it entrails…we’re reading (between the lines) tweets…so we should pick a bookie and take bets
reading tea leaves, or is it entrails…we’re reading (between the lines) tweets…so we should pick a bookie and take bets
rolo whats your input for richmond on this snow or bubba
Overall, the average precip shield has shifted a little bit west to date. The GEM continues to show an aggressive solution while the NAM has decided to play it safe. Look for the NAM to make its mind up by late this evening or overnight.
By the way, have read how some want to compare this upcoming storm to the 1998 event. Here’s a partial quote from my journal:
‘Although some are comparing this upcoming event to a 1998 winter event that dumped up to 20” of snow over a 48 hour period, this storm system should not be compared to that one. While moisture may work from east to west for a period, this will not be a prolonged event where the Low just stalls off the coast and catapults moisture over the entire region. Nevertheless, the eastern/southeastern parts of the state could get quite a dumpin’ IF all snow.
Well, by the tone of Chris’ last tweet, I don’t think its time to give up yet…I am going to wait and see what he says in the next update, and go from there. As he said in the tweet prior to that one…waffles arenot allowed… so I am just playing wait and see….BubbaG, remember, even Darth saw the light in the end…..;)
LOL Moderation
I have been rolling over the accuweather site today… they have changed Tuesday’s forecast about 8 times already. First it was snow with a high of 32… then rain snow with a high of 36… now they’ve got a high of 44 and no snow! I don’t understand how anyone can even consider that site at all “accurate”.
i see u getting upwards of 6 -8 inches with latest shift. inches if the way it look now veryies.
Yes, but then there were those annoying Ewoks!
thanks rolo
It’s called WaffleWeather.
Chris threw us a bone that at least hope.
And yet another reason I like him so much. 😉 He’s my brother.
Praise God for that. 😀
So on your site you had this:
“- here to me it seems the GFS takes to far of an east jog and I woult think that high would keep it further west instead of making it almost a cut-“
So that means if the GFS is an outlier you think the storm will go west of the GFS track, correct?
rolo should north central get there snowplows ready or wait
with that I was refering to the upper level set-up not matching the surface condtions I have thought all along the gfs is out of touch.
DTs setting in, need a fix quick! Update PLEASE!!!!!!
amen to that !!
So if you lived in Paintsville, would you be stocking up on bread?
Can anyone update on what the snow for London is looking like for Tuesday/wednesday?
Rolo what about Harrison County?
That’s why we here have renamed them “AccuCrack”! 🙂
What’s funny is, after the storm, no matter what happens– everyone will be like “I told you so” –even though there are opinions coming from every point of the spectrum.
LOL 😀
Or “CrackUweather” 😉
very little west of I-75 on the euro still. east ky gets a decent snow event but not to extreme as cmc, jma
TWC (or The Weather Crackheads) aren’t much better. LMAO 😀
I’m soo confused.. although I know nothing about this weather deal I have been reading all the updates and watching news channels to get all the details and here in middlesboro ky they are only saying about 2 inches is possible.. I need to plan ahead for work and childcare because we live 35 minutes from jobs..someone pleassee fill me in:)
Mr. Expert,
Are you going to have a follow up post or article about this anytime soon? 🙂
_______
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