Good evening to one and all. We interrupt this regularly scheduled evening of non blogging to bring you the latest run of the NAM for our Winter Storm Threat…
Tuesday Evening
Tuesday Night
Wednesday Morning
That is a heck of a track for a snowstorm around here and it matches up with earlier runs of the Canadian, Nogaps, JMA and the European of a few days ago. Now… I am NOT saying the model is right… but it shows that the Winter Storm THREAT is very valid as a westward track of the storm would result in a major snow event around here.
For those that like to dive into model output… save your time until within 36-48 hours… especially with the NAM. It does poorly on surface temps among other things.
Again… I AM NOT SAYING THIS RUN IS RIGHT.
A full update will be coming your way later tonight so check back. Take care.
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This 1 looks just fine, we’ll take it.:)
This excites me Chris! Oh how I hope the rest if the models follow suit tonight 😉
First,second,or third************************************************************************
I’ll take this run and RUN WITH IT….LOL…
4th
1st?
Nice!!
Bring it on…. more than ready for a huge, big, monster snow here in Rockcastle… thanks for your work CB U ROCK!!!!!
YES!!! Got it 😀
Eastern and SEKY looks to be the bullseye!!
http://www.ekywx.com/kychat.htm
Go west my young low. Go west. My 8 year old daughter asked me if this snow could be as big as last weeks. Please snow gods let me show her a what a real snow smack down looks like.
It’s looking good Chris. I’m still being cautious. When I see you pull the trigger I’ll be there!!
Sunday night or early monday will tell the tale..Sure hope the other models agree with this run..
Im not sold on this model run, but i want it to be right hahaha. We will know tomorrow night!!
This excites me Chris!! Oh how I hope tonights other model runs follow suit!
So what’s lexington expecting with the current run?
no moderation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just HOW many times have you been married? 😉
One wife for over twenty years has drained my will like a vampire- I would hate to think of another! 😉
5 out of 5 on the milk and bread index
Nope, not biting. If models agree tomorrow and the average of them shifts west, THEN I will upgrade chances.
CB is blogging and participating with us (nice fellow), so hope people do not take it to heart as a forecast.
The gfs had a good shift west from it’s last run:) Couple more westward shifts from it and we are in business.
Latest forecast from all local METs in Louisville tonight: tues-rain/flurries high upper 30’s wed-flurries high middle 30’s. Not even one mention of the possible storm. They could be right. BUT, IF they’re wrong, alot off ppl will be caught off guard and not know what hit them (AKA: FEB ’98)
CB Tweet,
The new NAM shows more than a foot of snow southern/eastern ky. Up to 8″ central and 3-6″ west.
WKYT’s facebook put that the Canadian model showed an 8+ inch snow and the GSF showed the possibility of only an inch 🙁 (of course they went on to say they prefer the GFS model) I immediately disliked their comment and I continue to hope for westward trend and another ’98! Or at least a good snow of over 5 inches!
at 500 mb gfs and nam are pretty similar. gfs still a few kinks to work out in my view. if the gfs were to shift bigtime east it’s usually the 00z run. not the case tonight!
The shift is about on same path as NAM. But, i think GFS is still lost. It has entire state above freezing and no precip! Not buying either of those. Still nice to see the track move west. If we have the Canadian, NOGAPS, and Euro to trend the same, then we should all be at least a little excited, lol
Bubba, with regards to the wife analogy we are brothers. 19 years and the same thought. Your earlier post hit home as well. Chris upgrades to threat mode and then posts a map that turns my brain to jello. He certainly is entertaining a larger geography, just wish he’d be more more considerate of the deprived in the homeland. I’d be tickled with 8 inches but like my fellow Woodford Countian Patty, I’ll remain cautiously optimistic. Still hanging on to my boarding pass for the Imperial Cruiser.
I can’t see this happening, but what if it shifted so far west that Ky. got a cold rain then a little snow at the end? Again, I don’t see it going that far west, but that would be just our luck.
Is the new GFS out yet?
We’ll take all the westward shift we can get.
Yes. Good shift west.
Moderated but here we go again. Ditto on the wife. 19 years for me and all I can say is I feel your pain. 🙂 your comment earlier hit home as well. Chris upgrades to threat mode and then puts that map out That about sent me in orbit. I know he doesn’t do it on purpose but I wish he’d be a little more sympathetic towards the deprived in central KY. Like my fellow Wodford Countian Patty, I’ll remain cautiously optimistic until the event and I’ll keep my boarding pass for the Imperial Cruiser just in case.
Type a brilliant thread and moderated.
Thanks. I’ll take it!!:-)
Yeah, its slower and more west, but 80% of the state of KY would see any precip with that particular solution…
I don’t mind snow at all; however, in the little “hollers” of east KY, if that were to happen, watch out for the elderly. PLEASE don’t ask for more than a foot because soooooooooooo many people will be without power. I PRAY to GOD that we don’t go without power.
MJ:
When the heck is spring gonna get here..??? 🙂
ALWAYS copy ur post just in case it gets moderated. I have a feeling we miss a LOT of what folks have to say because no one wants to type it all again.
500 mb pattern doesn’t support that, it’s either a hit or to far east.
How brilliant was it? I wanna know! 🙂
I had to laugh when I just looked at the WLKY weather blog out of Louisville. Talk about not a clue as to what could possibly be coming this week.
http://wlkyweather.wordpress.com/2011/01/22/looking-ahead-2/#more-2137
I hear ya– I just gave my inlaws a heads up on the storm. They live in Hancock Cty TN, bordering KY & VA. They are up in the hills so they get more than everyone else usually, and they live simply. No TV, internet, they farm and have cows, and a wood stove for heat. I would love to get a big snow here, but I would hate for them to get hit with it. Although— they would probably get through it better than me, they are strong resourceful people.
March…hopefully. Here are my quick thoughts. 1. The upper air pattern is more supportive of a more west track. 2. The NAM has support from the Canadian and UKMET. 3. The current NAM solution is overdone and too extreme with its QPF. Just remember what it was showing last week and what we ended up with. 4. This still looks to be a far east KY event in my opinion based on the data right now.
Stop moderating me! Grrrrr!
(not replying to any one, just the site)
I just highlight my comment and copy it. Therefore if it doesn’t go through, I just paste it back in.
I hear ya– I just gave my inlaws a heads up on the storm. They live in Hancock Cty TN, bordering KY & VA. They are up in the hills so they get more than everyone else usually, and they live simply. No TV, internet, they farm and have cows, and a wood stove for heat. I would love to get a big snow here, but I would hate for them to get hit with it. Although— they would probably get through it better than me, they are strong resourceful people who arent spoiled by modern conveniences.
I hear ya– I just gave my inlaws a heads up on the storm. They live in Tazewell TN, bordering KY & VA. They are up in the hills so they get more than everyone else usually, and they live simply. No TV, internet, they farm and have cows, and a wood stove for heat. I would love to get a big snow here, but I would hate for them to get hit with it. Although— they would probably get through it better than me, they are strong resourceful people who arent spoiled by modern conveniences.
My iPad won’t let me copy and paste. Either that or I haven’t figured out how to do it.
You may laugh…but they were the most conservative last week and their numbers worked out a little better than most…especially in the north.
I’ve done it on the iPad…not intuitive, but it works. To me, Safari gets moderated less than Firefox.
This is case in point how far CB is then the yuckelheads in the Lex market. Not even funny but really more sad. Maybe we get nothing from this but some of the folks that are constantly negAtive might consider that CB has had an outstanding record so far this year and deserves a lot of credit for not only bring right but also putting his butt out there on the line and being first or so far ahead of these other clowns that are so scared or making a mistake. It is like they will not call for snow until they look outside and it is already coming down. Sorry for the rant but just call them like I see them!
Lord..Im a shakin!!!
Hi Chris;
When you say’ “around here” could you be more specific? I know you are in W. Virginia, but we have folks on here from western Ky all the way into the Virginias. Thanks, and keep up the great work with your blog.
They will be fine. We have been getting through the big storms for years back here in the mountains. lol
LOL. Alright. Posting it THREE times amkes up for the moderation! LMAO
Around Kentucky.
I think his biggest concern with their post was that there wasn’t anything really mentioning that there was still the possibility. Understanding you’re a met, I can see your thoughts. But one has to think that the best met out there right now is only guessing at what could happen. Although I’m sure each of you have a particular pattern in your head that supports your thoughts.
cmc and ukmet take low into AL with snow band getting north to 1-64 then going back southeast again. would be a several inches for bwg into east ky with some 4-8 southeast ky. nogaps has trended south as well.
Chris,
I am really looking forward to some snow… Please do a snow dance and send it towards Montgomery Co.