Good Sunday, everybody. Here’s hoping you are enjoying this final weekend of November! As we get set to flip the calendar to December in the week ahead, we are watching some pretty big temp swings. The extent of these swings are still a bit in question as the models continue to struggle with conflicting signals.

Temps out there today are mainly in the 40s with a 50 in the west and south. Colder air bleeds in here from the north and northeast later tonight into Monday. 20s start the day with afternoon temps ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s depending on where you are.

The pattern for the middle and end of the week skews milder, but just how mild is still in question. The models are struggling with timing some smaller scale systems in here and are struggling even more with what happens this weekend into next week.

Let’s start with the smaller stuff. The first weak system of interest comes Wednesday. The NAM only goes through 7am Wednesday and the future radar indicates a bit of a light mix nearby…

That’s likely to produce a few showers for the first day of December as temps skew a little milder through the rest of the week into the start of the weekend. From there, the forecast models continue to show some major swings from run to run.

Of the current model runs, I feel the Canadian is the closest to reality. Watch how it swings these troughs through…

Here’s how that looks at the surface…

The GFS isn’t as cold, but has a very active look with southern stream systems getting into the mix…

Again, that’s a change from earlier runs.

The EURO continues to show the most volatility from run to run. It has an active look, but also has the bias of being too far west with everything…

The conflicting signals and the seasonal changes to the jet stream are going to make for additional wild model rides over the next few days. I first wrote about this a few days ago before we started to see those wild swings, so it’s not like this is new to us.

I will have updates later today on this setup and we will look deeper into December.

Have a good one and take care.