Good Saturday afternoon everyone. The blog is upgrading to Winter Storm THREAT for Tuesday and Wednesday. The THREAT does not mean this storm is certain to hit our region… it simply means there is an increased risk for a significant snow event.
The setup will find low pressure developing across the gulf states late Monday into Tuesday. This low would rapidly intensify as it heads northeast into the Carolinas then into the northeastern part of the country. While the exact track of this low won’t be known until later Sunday or Monday… there is more than enough reason to think much of our region can get in on the significant snows.
Here is a breakdown of the threat area…
That is basically a First Call for the Winter Storm Threat and I will update that as needed as more data becomes available. Those lines can move east or west in time.
The latest round of computer models look very threatening, for the most part. The Canadian Model has been steady as a rock in showing how a major winter storm…
Here is the amount of liquid precipitation from the same model forecast…
To help put that in perspective… A general rule is 10″ of snow for every 1″ of liquid. The JMA model is even farther west with the heaviest precipitation…
We also find the NOGAPS… UKMET and NAM in a similar camp in terms of the track of the low.
UKMET
NAM Tuesday Evening
In the opposite camp… we find the GFS and European Models suggesting this storm will have very little impact around here or up the east coast, for that matter. You know what I think of the GFS as it JUST today figured out there would actually be a storm. It is in it’s typical too far east mode with an east coast storm and you will see it correct westward over the next day. The European has been all over the place with this storm as has shown everything from 2 feet of snow to nothing around here in the past few runs. This used to be the mac daddy of models, but has had a lot of issues the past few winters… especially this one.
There is PLENTY of room for error with this storm as it is all about the track. A farther eastward track means less snow for us while a farther west track could bring a shutdown snowstorm to us. While I cannot say for certain where the track will end up… the potential is certainly there for us to be in the middle of a major winter storm. I am not saying you are for sure getting a snowstorm… just that we have an increased risk of one.
Let’s get into Sunday and see how things are looking before we stock up on bread and milk. 
haha
I will have more updates as needed so be sure to check back. Have a great rest of your Saturday and take care.
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Looks Great!
First! Let it snow!
Thanks, Chris! Hoping the runs bring it further West. Got my fingers crossed! Looking forward with great anticipation to the next update!
Appreciate the update, CB.
We’re riding the chance/moderate line with Chris’ first map. Anxious to see where this goes. Looks like all or nothin’ for where I am in Greenup Co. We shall see 🙂
somebody said they saw bubba and rolo on the side of I-75 in thier speedo’s doing a snow chant…LOL…LOL…LOL…
THANKS, CHRIS! I AM REALLY UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE, IN FACT I REALLY DON’T SEE LEX AND POINTS WEST TO GET MUCH OUT OF IT. HOWEVER, TOMORROW WILL BE THE DAY TO GO TO SAMS CLUB AND KROGER I HOPE!!! 🙂 🙂
ALL WE CAN DO IS PRAY IT COMES WEST OR LOOKS LIKE MERCER WILL NOT GET MUCH.
CB the EURO by tomm will coming back around. tx LEGEND u da man. add a FACEBOOM SHARE LINK when u get time.
BLIZZARD TIM u got sources everywhere I tell ya.
actually i was in my speedo but had my mule with me. disnt see bubba.
Sure we all will be watching and hoping the “BIG ONE” hits…takes me back to the 1978 snow storm…got out for Christmas break, didn’t go back to school until Feb 1…the good old days….here’s a shout out to Edna/Robby B…..happy snow/storm tracking…think north and west….
I am keeping my fingers crossed that we will get a huge winter storm!!! Minus the ice, I might add 🙂
I think the snow lovers west of Pikeville to Grayson are out of luck with this storm. The European and Canadian models just haven’t had their act together this winter and are not reliable. But, if enough of us do a magic snow dance, maybe we can pull that low west about 100 miles!
I really want to see a big storm! I hope it swings west just a little bit to get us there at Morehead State!!! I wanna build an igloo!
Unless a big shift west, I am not getting pumped about this one. As far as big snow chances:
East KY = 60%
East Middle KY = 40%
Central KY = 20%
A general shift east means shift 20% downward for the chances.
HIGHEST RISK!!! Cant wait. 15-17″ snow with 1.25-1.50″ of precip….
Until all the models come into agreement. There is no chance I am going to get excited about this storm. I have been burnt many times this year here in Louisville with near bull eyes.
Don’t forget your local independent grocer!
Just can’t believe Central Kentucky is gonna miss another one. Been many years since CKY has seen a snow storm of any size.
so mercer county has a 20% chance of a big snow next week?…That is a total bummer !
Come chat about this storm.
http://www.ekywx.com/kychat.htm
In the CHANCE catergory. That just doesn’t sound like a very exciting word to me. Hoping for more of a westward track with the future computer models later today!
Im beginning to feel like a toy on the island of misfit toys and Ruldolph keeps forgetting us. Maybe this time?
Thanks Chris
BLIZZARD TIM u got sources everywhere I tell ya.
actually i was in my speedo but had my mule with me. disnt see bubba.
Picture me as cousin Eddie bouncing on the diving board a beer and you would be about right 🙂
If we had one around here. As big as Georgetown is, our choices are Walmart, Kroger, or the dirtiest SavALot on earth. I would love to support a local grocer, but would have to travel to Paris or Stamping Ground to make it happen.
Seems about right for chances.
Still not buying it. At least for us folks in the central part of the state. When Chris says weather WARINING for a lot of snow here, I’m gonna dig in deep!
Not getting excited here in Berea either. Im 26 and have never seen a snow larger than 8″. I would say the probability is non-exsistant for more than 1-3 inches.
IM BOARDING THE NO-SNOW BUS….I JUST DON’T SEE US HERE IN CKY GETTING MORE THAN A FEW INCHES AT BEST…..2-4 LEX METRO AREA…
I’m afraid this will be another ‘spectator’ snowstorm for us….We watch while Virginia and West Virginia get their 15-20″ and we get our chance at 1-3″.
not sure the euro has been as bad as ever body thinks this winter. To me they have all had issues. It seems like the Euro handled the last storm pretty good except for couple bad runs. Other than that it seemed stable. I am really worried the Euro will be correct. I am afraid Louisville area will miss out again. When does the next run of the Euro come out? Curious to see if it has any westward trend.
I hope it never snows ever again.
I DON’T HAVE ONE HERE, OR THAT IS WHERE I WOULD GO!
The 18z NAM is a heartbreaker folks…you know what they say bout if something sounds too good to be true it probably is? Well, prepare to sit back and watch the carolinas get slammed again!!! Old school aint gonna happen…wimpy little 2-3 inch events is the new norm here. Watch all the models slide over to the GFS now that it has picked up on this storm. When we get a favorable storm track for a “old school” storm, the cold air is absent and we just get p-ssed on by cold rain. Have the cold air in place and the track will miss us to the south and east. Not trying to be negative, but this is our new “normal” in terms of winter in Ky.
Wide spread 1-3 inches, mark it down.
Don’t get ur hopes up.
For big snow, east KY still has a good chance, but folks expecting a big one beyond the east should just treat it as a surprise- if the forecast locks in for it and expect nothing much unless so.
1998 proved a surprise can happen, but how many years ago was that??
One model does not a storm make or break. Relax. “New normal”? We’ve had more snow this year than any for 10 or 15 years. Chill.
Exactly.
I dont know where louisville is on this map. I take it we get nothing?
These little snows are like Chinese water torture. They start to get VERY aggravating and remind me of a poem:
Bring on Spring 🙂
WELCOME ALL DEBBIE DOWNERS!! Whine and moan until the next model run. Then when the monster snow pops back up, tell us all how it will disappear in your backyard in the next model.
We now return you to your crying and weeping. If you feel like smiling or feeling hopeful, please punch yourself in the nose until the gloom returns.
It is not one model. The NAM has just moved over to what the GFS said when it first picked up on this storm. Our winter thus far has been cold and snowy, no doubt. However, in Pulaski county, unless you have had you lawn trimmed like the fairways at TPC Sawgrass, one single event has not covered the grass….
The point never ever was about snow total, but a “big snow” event and always was. Got them every recorded decade but stopped in the 00’s and has yet to happen.
Central Kentucky should be marketed to folks that do no like big snows 😉
You are treating something with incredulity, though that IS what happens- the models come and they go. It is what it is 🙂
No whining and moaning…I am a realist, if that makes me a whiner then I guess I am. I have 13 years of these phantom blizzards to back up my logic. I tell you what, I will go out and buy a snowblower to take the place of the broom I use to sweep all of the snowstorms we have gotten in Pulaski County the past 13 yrs. The only way we get to 12 is if we measure in centimeters….
Looks like slim to none, unless the continent shifts to the right in the next couple of days. Maybe we should use reverse psychology and everyone ignore it and we’ll get the big snow.
Louisville will get the clipper. Prob a couple inches.
And at one point in time it was the same thing, it had been 10-15 since the previous one. I don’t care if its been 30 years, nothing saying it can’t/won’t happen again. It might or it might not for this one, but it is entertaining to watch the attitudes change with each individual model and each model.
Thank you Bubba,
If we get 2 inches 10 different times, that’s twenty inches and sounds impressive. A two inch snowfall is weak. We want a 5+ inch at a time. A foot would be great.
If your cheering for a big or decent s.fall in nor, cen. Ky jma. or the can. model are the ones you hope that come to fruition.
Looks like everyone is hopping on my 9 am forcast “9:18 a.m. NoSnowForYou wrote:
Looks like another general 1-3″ Storm with higher amounts further east. Its becoming more and more clear the track will be to the east. Seems like they all go north, south, east, never direct but atleast there are plenty to track this year.”
by the way Lou. is located right of the hook on the nor. border or the Ohio river. Follow the river down from Ohio then you will see the hook. I hope that helps. Geography Major lol
LOL! We tried that last year!! It didn’t work then either!! LOL!
The only downside is that my husband has to get back and forth from work. Other than that, I say bring it on!
Looks like everybody is jumping on my yesterday post.
Sorry maybe you are jumping on mind. But who cares…
Friday, January 21, 2011 3:28 PM Trob wrote:
This one will miss us, mark it down. We are talking 12+, but in 2 days it will be 1-3 and we are watching snow plows in New York getting stuck on the weather channel.
Old school did happen for western KY in December 2004! Some places had 20 inches!
Everyone talks about the 13 year big snow drought in Central KY! Louisville got 11 inches out of that storm, and they are considered central KY! So officially there has been an old schooler in CKY every decade!
Okay, so let me break this down. 1st, all us negative people, are just hoping that if we be negative, it will really happen. (Even though we know better) Maybe if we all pay no attention to the weather or the blog until Wednesday, maybe we’ll wake up and be surprised? Okay, well its just my twisted lil mind wishing reverse psycology would work, although it hasnt in the past…..LOL Good luck to all the snow lovers….Im going on “weather strike”, anyone care to join me?
After several years on the blog I can’t say that I have ever seen it go from the extreme of the morning downer to the afternoon euphoria to where it is now. Rolo was having convulsions this afternoon during this euphoric period. Maybe MJ will give us some of his thoughts while we wait for Chris to rescue us from the dark side. Give it time. Tommorrow it will start all over.
I know we have model runs and lots of time…. but someone give me your gut on snow totals for London.
I hope it misses us !!!! Too much hardship on those that have to drive in it and work outside!!! Cant pay the bills at home !!!!
One thing I wish CB and others would stop doing, and that’s showing the JMA…
JMA blows everything up and is rarely correct, <10%... Just ignore it folks...
We may still see some snow, but not the Monster that JMA is showing…
MikeM,
First there was the infamous (and accurate) snow sandwich map and now a lot of people realize that based on CBs map, big snow is once again a long shot for central Ky. The fact that this could be THE BIG ONE makes it all the more perilous to folks.
Factor in a larger population base in central Ky and the board vibe is what it is.
We got 0 inches outta that one in Pulaski County….if I remember all we got out of that was…..you guessed it, a cold rain.
Even in the “Superstorm of 1993” Lexington received 6 inches, Louisville very little, and it was Eastern/Southeastern Ky that got hammered.
Looks like a similar set-up to me.
I’m not looking for more than 2 inches ALL WEEK in Lawrenceburg unless this thing shifts 100-200 miles west.
I’m in London also and I say 2 to 4 inches.
fact is iof ur in lexniton nothrth and west there nothing to TALK ABOUT, SE/E KY redneck hillbillys like me are going et in all the fun, all the MONSTER SNOWSTORMS of yesteryear hit this part of state harder.
sorry but when u see a foot and half a snow coming u go from depression to a xanax high very quickly. there nothing changed. the 18z runs meran nothing to me. the EURO THIS TIMETOMM will tell the tell. so untill thenm its still up in air but one things for sure SE KY going get 10 plus inches of snow.
u see my horse pick with GG fight up the rail to win!!!
central ky never was going get hammered, this storm track doesnt set up for that, there be a foot of snow and 75 miles away 5 inches.
sorry but its a SE E KY SNOWSTRM a coming of bout 15 inches.
the EURO will come around tomm, the 18z run are always jumk guys.
Richmond got over near a foot with 1993 and I75 (in the entire state) was shut down. Hardly would happen for 6″.
Maybe you are thinking of another snow?
I have to be in London monday…do I return home or stay. If I stay will i get snowed in ?
Looks like Louisville is left out of this one too….. I feel like Charlie Brown trick-or-treating, ” I got a rock.”
Nothing makes the pain any less. Whether it be Lucy pulling the ball out from under Charlie brown or young love gone bad, big snow in central KY is a big tease. I love the blog but it pains me to be so close to the big one only to have it yanked away, most of the time in increments, so the pain, agony and suffering is prolonged. Medication or blog withdrawal is next.
Actually, not…look at this map.
http://kyclim.wku.edu/images/bliz93.jpe
So…my focus is the Portsmouth Oh/Greenup/South Shore Ky area..any thoughts?
Love this blog ya’ll are a blast to read CB is one of the best plain talking mets I’ve heard in a long time.
Would not get too assured about this one Rolo. Could be a far east KY event and a lot less the more west you go.
Most folks that got down about this event all the sudden, are ones that saw “Threat mode” and then saw the map. Kind of like being excited about opening a present and nothing in the box 😉
No offense to CB intended at all, but a fair analogy.
Not sure why I left adult beverage as one of my options.
I will give this one more day, but if this doesn’t give us more than 4″, I will officially ready for spring time. Because in spring, at least we get active , big storms that can bring us severe storms. In winter we get these drive byes, and I’m sick of it. I’m so close to giving up on this winter.
I feel ya..
2-4 inches for central ky, rule of thumb hahahahahaha. check out the website peopleeeee
Confused!
In Jan 1994 AND 1996…….The Ville and Lextown BOTH had a foot or more of snow……
What were the tracks of those storms?
From what I have read…..For central KY to get a good snow…..The track has to go just EAST of the apps……Yet if that happens……It’s TOO far EAST for Louisville to get it……If it goes just west of the apps, that’s good for the ville, bad for lextown………….So that all being said…….How did BOTH get huge snowstorms from those tracks? Please advise…….Thanks
and MJ
You said you were working on something a couple of months ago regarding winter storms for our region…and it would be posted on your website…..Any info on that?
Thanks
Lou. is considered North Central KY, as is Nelson Co….Well, I don’t know what kind of precip. W. KY got that year, but yea, LOU did get “old school” that year…but just 33 miles to the south of them, we got the “old school ice storm’…..
I did! The site ROCKS! Informative, clear, insightful. Great Work Lincoln!Now, can you please make the snow hang a left into Louisville!
Well, it seems that here we are again, same ole same ole….but I still can’t be upset. (Oh, I mean, I CAN, but, why bother? As Bubba says, it is what it is.) So why waste energy getting pumped or bummed right now? Not worth it. And, yes, I agree, Chris is the best plain talking met anywhere in these here parts! 😉
That’s incorrect… I lived in North Richmond at the time and I measured 12″ in my back yard… My sister lived in lex and got nearly a foot as well,(SW LEX)…
He already posted it like a week ago…
Please track west. I want to get hammered. If this misses then bring on spring
BTW…I used to live in E-Town. I recall walking along the railroad tracks which parallel North Main with my kids during the winter, making our way to the top of the huge hill in the cemetary. We loved to see the snow make the town sparkle as far as the eye could see. Thyen off to Dairy Queen for cocoa!
Cool. 🙂 We’ve only been here since end of July, but I’ve fallen in love with the place. Good, kind, friendly people, awesome schools, adorable town, and GREAT shopping for such a small place.
Rolo…put down the xanax.
😀
rolo… put down the x a n a x.
😀
Twice.. for when you flipflop. lol