Good Friday, everyone. As we head into the first weekend of December, milder than normal temps are ruling the weather land out there today. A cold front does drop in on Saturday with slightly lower temps, but the focus of the forecast is on a very active setup next week. It’s a pattern likely to feature a lot of rain and even the chance for a little bit of winter weather.
Temps out there today are deep into the 60s again with a 70 possible in the west and south. Winds are gusty as a weak front drops in overnight into early Saturday. This may touch off a few showers across the southern half of the state early Saturday. The future radar of the Hi Res NAM shows the scattered nature of the action tonight through Noon Saturday…
Temps come down into the 50s Saturday, but then surge again into the 60s Sunday ahead of a strong cold front barreling toward the region. Showers will increase on Sunday with a line of heavy rain producing showers Sunday night into early Monday. Some areas may pick up 1″-2″ of rain with locally higher amounts.
GFS through Monday…
Here’s the Canadian rainfall forecast…
The EURO
Temps crash into the 30s behind this front on Monday and there’s still a shot at some flakes showing up on the backside of the departing rain shield.
Winds are going to be a major player with this front and the potential is there for gusts to reach 50mph along the front. The GFS has some big time wind gusts…
The EURO isn’t as stout, but it’s up there…
From there, we watch additional systems target the region through next weekend. The track on these are primarily rain makers, but the models do have a touch of winter.
The Canadian and GFS are similar with our friend from the north giving us the best shot at some winter weather…
The GFS says no way to the winter weather…
The rainfall forecasts from now through December 12th….
GFS
Canadian
The EURO gives us a different look and it’s one that gives winter weather lovers some hope. The trough does not settle in the west and instead comes east…
You can see the winter weather potential…
Winter weather lovers are currently #teameuro.
Updates coming later today. Have a fantastic Friday and take care.
I looked all of this ‘weather stuff’ up yesterday and the overall weather pattern shows NO SIGN of changing. A positive NAO and a positive AO and a negative PNA and a strong negative PDO really caught my attention.
Until La Nińa loosens its grip, Winter weather in Western and South Central Kentucky will remain a pipe dream.
Joe, here’s an article that you may be interested in concerning La Nina Winters :
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-expect-winter-noaa%E2%80%99s-2021-22-winter-outlook
Thank you for attaching the link, Schroeder,
The effects of moderate to strong La Nińa’s usually result in a predictable pattern for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, especially as they relate to the Polar jet stream’s path. In recent years, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska have influenced the development of a ridge over the West coast and Alaska, which has caused a corresponding, periodic displacement of the jet stream, and resulted in a flow pattern over North America that resembles a sine wave. This year, however, that pool of warmer water has been displaced to the west, and replaced by colder than normal water (see the attached map). I believe that this SST anomaly will result in more “normal” La Nina conditions, and will further reduce the chances for Winter weather in our neck of the woods, especially for Western and South Central Kentucky.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
Thanks Joe for your excellent reply and the link to the Pacific SST.
I was hoping for an early snow season.
It appears that isn’t coming to fruition.
I rather have snow in Dec. than in late March.
It’s difficult to predict when that first accumulation of Snow will occur. Having a La Nina Winter on average most of the Snowstorms are well to our North along with the coldest weather. Our Snowiest Winters in the Ohio Valley may occur more often during weak El Nino Winters when we have a active Subtropical jet stream along with a Polar jet stream phasing in the Southern Rocky Mountains. One exception, the years 1917-18 (a La Nina Winter) when the NAO went to the bottom of the scale and produced a very Snowy Winter that lasted from December eight through early April 1918. It will be interesting to see if that will happen later in this upcoming Winter ???
Here’s a factoid courteously from the NWS out of Louisville, Kentucky : On December 9th, 1917, Vevay, Indiana, on the Ohio River, reported 26 inches of Snow that fell in a 24 hour period, with 14 foot snowdrifts. That Winter 1917-18th was probably the coldest and Snowiest of the 20th century ?
im always in permanent team spring/summer mode. i truly despise winter. that said, i much prefer winter weather during december & january. by the time mid february rolls around with a 70* tease of spring, im soooo done with anything winter related 🙂
Very depressing and uncomfortable weather for December, but not unexpected. Being a snow lover, I’m sad to say not a single flake has fallen in the Hazard area so far this season. We’ve usually had at minimum a few snow showers by now.
It appears the La Niña effect may persist for a while yet. More depressing as we head toward the middle of December.. Last years Christmas snow miracle May be that once in a loooong time event that we talk about for years to come.
Schroeder, I enjoyed your info from 1918, etc. My grandmother, born in 1918, told me once about a snowfall in early June here in eastern KY. She recalled being a young girl, maybe 5 or so, and her dad going out to work in the mines with snow up to the tops of his boots. There was a hard freeze as well, and all the foliage dropped from the trees. It came back, but sparsely. She said the corn in the garden was about ankle-high. I wonder if there are any records that can corroborate her memory. Think I’ll go peruse.
My Grandparents were born during the 1880’s and 1890’s and they told me all about the Winters here in the Midwest. Snow would start falling in November and throughout the entire Winter months and when Spring came in May it would be Spring and stay Spring and the planting season was underway.
forget_me_not, my grandfather was born in 1915. he told me about it snowing in late may here in pike county. im 49 and havent seen anything later than the big one we had here in April of 1987 (i think) which was nearly 2ft. (pike county)
It’s early and normally we don’t see our first measurement snow until January, so far our pattern has been a yo yo one cold days for a few days and then it flips to warm days for a few days the thing is seems there’s more warm days than cold days..
Winterlover, I hope your area receives some good rains soon. We are beginning to get dry here also. Today is the second day where the temperature reached 70 degrees. Beautiful weather, but like you all I want Snow when December comes.