Good afternoon, folks. It’s a damp and changeable weather day across Kentucky as a cold front sweeps eastward. This is bringing a big drop in temps and it’s actually going to feel like December over the next few days. This post is to concentrate more on much bigger changes showing up as we get set to close out the year.
As we head into Christmas week, there are a few systems set to cross the country, especially over Christmas weekend. I don’t see any of these being anything but rain makers around here, but that is likely to change just after Christmas.
Here’s how the EURO sees things from Christmas Eve through early the following week…
The Canadian during the same time…
I look at this setup and I wonder if we have another heavy rain/strong thunderstorm maker left before the full blown pattern change. That’s something I’m concerned about and is something we don’t need to happen.
If you look at the end of both of those runs, you will see some really cold air starting to crash in here. The blocking pattern is now setting up on all available guidance and that bodes well for cold and snow lovers. The problem is, you have to wait until the end of the year and into early January to reap the benefits of this setup.
If we look at the height anomalies from the EURO to start the final week of the year, you can clearly see how the big blocks over the top are trying to connect…
As they hook up, they force a deep trough to settle into the United States and expand east with arctic cold.
The Canadian at the same time…
The GFS is slower with this transition but gets there a few days later…
The Canadian Ensembles was the first model to point toward this pattern and it continues to show the same thing to end the year and start 22…
The GFS Ensembles continue to jump on board…
And we welcome the EURO Ensembles to the same look…
The similarities to the winter of 1984/85 are uncanny. A cold November was followed by a warm December before a memorable and harsh January/February. In case you missed that post to start December, I will refresh your memory with my next update tonight.
Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.
Glad to see all three ensembles are mostly in agreement. One thing the GFS looks colder because the trough takes out the Southeast Ridge.
In my records, December 1984 we had a decent Snowstorm (in Southwest Indiana) on the 6th, but it did not last very long as it was back to well above normal temperatures through New Years Day.
I haven’t any records on how the rest of the Winter 1985 turned out in Southwest Indiana as far as Snowstorms ? It maybe that it was very cold and dry in that part of the state. Just a guess ???
Chicago set its all-time record low temperature of 27 degrees below zero on January 20th, 1985.