Good Tuesday, folks. It’s a better looking and feeling day out there, but the focus of the forecast is on another snow maker moving in late Wednesday through early Thursday. This continues to trend stronger and can easily put down a few to several inches of snow for some.

Let’s start with the right now. Temps out there today should go above freezing for most areas as westerly winds try to turn southwesterly. This southwesterly wind cranks tonight and is ahead of an arctic front charging in here on Wednesday.

Temps climb ahead of this as rain quickly develops. This means we melt some snow and we are going to see a lot of standing water around. More on this in a moment.

Temps crash quickly into the 20s behind the front as an arctic wave develops along it. This allows for a swath of snow to develop behind the front and that’s likely to put snow on the ground. How much? Who gets the most? Both of those depend on exactly where the front is as the low develops.

Here’s my First Call For Snowfall…

I will update the lines and totals as this system comes into better focus later today.

This is going to cause some issues, folks. We will have a lot of standing water that will freeze up quickly. Throw a touch of a mix and then accumulating snow on top of it and look out. Travel conditions will become an absolute mess Wednesday night and Thursday.

The forecast models continue to trend toward a bigger event and the NAM fam is leading the charge. The regular run of the model continues to show a quick-hitting winter storm across the northern two-thirds of the state…

The last few runs of the NAM have really been blasting the Bluegrass Region.

The Hi Res version only goes through 7am Thursday and has a similar thought…

The GFS has a much more expansive snow shield and also takes us into winter storm criteria…

The Canadian is trending toward the American models…

The EURO continues to be an outlier with a much weaker and farther south solution…

Following all this will be a shot of bitterly cold air to end the week. Single digit lows likely show up by Friday morning and the GFS makes a run at zero…

Wind chills on that run go below zero…

The model continues the brutal cold into Saturday morning. These are the actual temps from the GFS..

I’m still watching the weekend potential, but the bigger this first system is, the better the chance the southern low over the weekend stays to our southeast. The reason the EURO is so light with this first system is because it develops another monster storm by the weekend and dumps a lot of snow from eastern Kentucky and points east.

Folks, this pattern is loaded with bitterly cold shots and more snow. I warned you to buckle up and so did the 1984/85 analog I’ve been riding since late November. This might be the best analog year I’ve ever come up with.

I will have updates through the day, so check back. Have a good one and take care.