Good afternoon, folks. With calmer weather in store for the weekend, it’s all eyes on the potential for a big winter storm to impact the Ohio Valley next week. This looks like a system loaded with all kinds of nasty winter weather with every precipitation type on the table.
Before we get to that, let’s talk briefly about the cold of this morning. It. Was. Brutal. Check out the top 10 coldest readings from the Kentucky Mesonet…
Temps won’t be as cold tonight or Sunday as clouds increase ahead of a weak clipper passing to our north. This may get close enough to cause a few snow showers or flurries to get into northern and northeastern Kentucky Sunday night.
The setup beyond this has been well advertised here on KWC. The mega temp gradient I’ve been showing is one that will lead to a widespread major overrunning winter storm for a lot of the country. What impact it has on Kentucky remains to be seen but rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow are all on the table. Which one of them will be the dominant precipitation type will be the focus of the forecast going forward.
One thing to keep in mind, arctic air is usually underplayed by the models and these setups usually wind up a little farther south and east. Now, that’s what history suggests, but each setup is different.
The Canadian Model shows rain to mainly freezing rain and some sleet. Here’s the model for late Wednesday night and Thursday…
The model then goes straight ugly late Thursday into early Friday…
Again, the model forecasts are just that… Forecasts. They’re not meant to be taken verbatim. Of course, you guys already know this and know they’re only being shown so we can watch trends over the coming days.
No one wants any part of the Canadian Ice…
The EURO has a colder look, but it’s absolutely loaded for bear with winter weather. Here’s the Thursday look from the latest run…
And the look for Thursday night and early Friday…
The freezing rain forecast from this run…
And the snow forecast shows just how far reaching this system may be…
The GFS is the GFS and changes radically from run to run. The model doesn’t really perform very well with extreme setups so it’s really hard to use sometimes. I mean, just a few days ago the model had the east coast blizzard being a total miss. Here’s the ice output from the current run…
If we go to the UKMET, we find it showing much more of a colder scenario with the Thursday system. Here’s the snow map…
Again, model forecasts are NOT to be taken as the gospel from any time range. Trends, folks. Trends!! Let’s hope this turns out as an all rain event or an all snow event. We want no part of anything else.
Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.
I want NO part of that Canadian model run. 1½ inches of ice in South Central Kentucky would be an absolute nightmare. And when you consider what 2022 has dished out in less then a month, worrying is justified.
We wanted Winter; we GOT Winter!
Wow the GFS, ICON, CMC All show a extensive ice event next week. Let’s hope things dont pan out that way I agree with you Chris. I’m a snow lover but have no place for a ice storm in my heart. Would much rather see ( choke, .. ) plain rain anytime. Looks like northern Indiana ohio has the potential to get snow thumped. Will be watching the models closely..
Very good and interesting point about the GFS and this weekend noreaster!!!
Pleaaase no ice!
Those weather models are for you to keep tuned in to see what really happens on February third. They are displaying the worse case scenario .
I’m going by my local forecast which is presently forecasting much warmer temperatures and a good chance of heavy Rains over parts of the State. No mention at this time of a Snowstorm or an Ice Storm.
An old saying and usually pans out goes like this : ” If February second is bright and clear a second Winter you will have that year. “
Yes absolutely do not entertain those apps at all…..especially when we’re talking next week.
The majority of local forecasts are based on the GFS, which is why forecasts beyond a day or two will invariably change. The NAM and Hi-Res NAM are usually more reliable, but more near term. since they are short time-frame instruments.