Good Sunday, everyone. Temps out there today are coming up a few degrees, but all eyes are on a nasty looking setup for the middle and end of the upcoming week. It’s a setup that can throw the kitchen sink at the Ohio Valley.

Let us begin with what’s happening out there today. Highs recover into the upper 30s to middle 40s with clouds increasing ahead of a clipper passing by just to our north. This may throw a few flurries into the north and northeast, but it shouldn’t be anything to write home about.

Temps on Monday come down a few degrees from today before bouncing to above normal on Tuesday. That’s with a strong southwest flow sets up ahead of a major temp gradient setting up just to our west. This gradient features arctic air behind it and some above normal air ahead of it. This sets the stage for a lot of ugly for much of the country.

Here are some thoughts on the setup ahead:

  • This is a mega temp gradient with arctic air of up to -30 potentially showing up in the upper midwest behind the boundary.
  • A front effectively stalls out on top of us Wednesday through Thursday night.
  • Arctic air behind this is heavy and the models typically underdo the strength of this cold. If the models are underplaying this cold, the front may set up farther south and east.
  • A few areas of low pressure develop along the boundary and ride to the northeast into this region. The main one arrives Thursday.
  • This setup is absolutely loaded with moisture, and it shows up in all forms from Texas through our region and into the northeast.
  • For us, rain likely develops on Wednesday as the front is likely just to our west and northwest. Once this front moves through, temps may drop up to 30 degrees in an hour or so.
  • That boundary sinks through here Wednesday night and Thursday. At the same time, low pressure works along it.
  • All modes of precipitation are on the table from Wednesday night through Friday morning. Heavy rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow are all possible during this time.
  • It’s WAY too early to talk to pinpoint which P-Type is dominant or about how much can fall.

The EURO continues to be the coldest of all the models and brings significant amounts of snow and ice into the region…

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The latest Canadian Model is very concerning as it continues to put down a tremendous amount of precipitation in our region, especially freezing rain…

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As expected, the GFS took a turn toward the other models with a farther southeast and colder scenario Thursday morning through Friday morning…

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I still don’t think that’s done correcting farther south and east.

Moral of the story is a major winter storm will likely target the region later in the upcoming week with all modes of precipitation on the table.

Behind this comes additional storm threats from next weekend into the following week. Folks, this is a very harsh winter pattern that rolls on across our region. Is the worst yet to come?

I will update things later today. Have a great day and take care.