Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to track a significant winter storm likely to have a big impact on our region from Wednesday through Friday. This can bring every mode of precipitation to Kentucky and surrounding areas before arctic air blasts back in.

My thoughts on this setup have not changed one bit as we wait for the system to come into better focus. Here’s a little different breakdown of how each day may play out:

Wednesday

  • Rain develops as temps spike toward 50 or even a little better.
  • Heavy rains will be possible during this time.
  • Temps start to crash in the far west and north late in the day and there’s a chance for a bit of a mix in these areas.

Thursday

  • Our slow-moving arctic front moves eastward across the state as low pressure works along it.
  • Temps drop 20-30 degrees immediately behind this front.
  • There is a tremendous amount of precipitation with this setup.
  • East of the boundary, heavy amounts of rain may cause high water issues to develop.
  • Freezing rain and sleet likely develop behind the front with the chance for a stripe of snow.

Thursday Night/Friday

  • The cold air takes control across the entire state.
  • Freezing rain, sleet and snow may be common.
  • There could be a separate area of light snow that swings through here later Friday.

This is just a rough outline of the potential and none of that is set in stone. Precipitation types and amounts will be the challenge of the week. Flooding, ice and snow are all possible. If you’re reading more into what I’m saying other than that, it’s on you. 😜

Here’s hoping we get none of this, but the signals are strong and have been for a while.

The latest Canadian Model continues to put down a tremendous amount of freezing rain and sleet in Kentucky…

Image

The EURO is just a bobble west from earlier runs…

Image

The GFS continues to be the warmest and farthest west of the bunch. It essentially brings flooding, some ice and some snow in here…

Image

The UKMET doesn’t give me the precipitation types like the other models, but we can clearly see a colder and farther east solution based on the snowfall map…

Image

Bitterly cold air comes in behind all this and we will then watch additional winter weather threats from next weekend through the following week.

I may drop by for another update this evening, so check back. Have a good one and take care.