Good Monday, everyone. A major winter storm is set to bring a lot of different precipitation to our region and this will likely cause issues. These issues range from the potential of flooding to freezing rain and some snow. This has a very ugly look to it, folks.
Let’s break down the threats:
FLOODING
- Heavy rain is likely to fall across much of the state Wednesday through Thursday.
- A general 1″-4″ will be possible with locally higher amounts.
- Flash flooding and general flooding will both be possible.
- This is my greatest concern as of right now.
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
- Temps crash from west to east late Wednesday night and Thursday.
- As this happens, freezing rain and sleet show up just behind a slow-moving front.
- The greatest threat for significant amounts of freezing rain will be across western and central Kentucky with the majority of that coming later in the day.
- The extent of the ice is still not known nor is the area of greatest impact.
SNOW
- Much of the snow associated with this system is likely to our west and northwest.
- A period of light snow will be possible by Thursday night with another one possible Friday.
- Any deviation in where the front slows down could result in better snow chances around here.
- Snow is the lowest chance out of the 4 precipitation types.
TEMPS
- Readings can spike into the 50s ahead of the front.
- A 20-30 degree temp drop in an hour or two is likely when the front moves through.
- The temp map late Wednesday and early Thursday may feature a more than 30 degree difference from west-east across the state.
- Lows by the weekend can reach the single digits once again.
The models continue to show the typical variations in placement, totals and dominant precipitation types.
We want ZERO part of the Canadian Model, folks. It has a massive amount of rain and freezing rain…
The EURO isn’t as loaded as the Canadian, but it would still produce all kinds of issues…
The GFS continues to be the farthest west with everything…
I will have multiple updates today and on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Make it a great day and take care.
OK…….so with this last storm we just had, which model did best?
GFS, I think Mark.
Yep gona miss out on the snow again
Russell, In my area of Kentucky in the last 14 years we have not had anything close to a Major Snowstorm. The most impressive Winter Storm was the ICE STORM in 2009, Which cost me personally around $20,000 to clean up the mess.
Schroedor we had a couple big snowstorms back in 2014 and 2015 if I’m correct that practically shut the whole state down that i remember.
No, those Snowstorms were “run of the mill” compared to the last Snowstorm I remember in December 2004 where there was 24 inches in my driveway, and where I grew up in South Central Indiana over 36 inches was reported.
Here where I live now 1 inch will shut the area down.
oh your talking about snow mega storms, yes i remember that.
We won’t know what will happen until it’s too late. Just like the last time and the time before that, but what has been presented to us should not be taken too lightly.
The ice risk seems to be diminishing (unless you’re a fan of the Canadian model!), but the risk of flooding is extremely high, especially since the ground is frozen. Even a ¾” to 1″ rain could be problematic, but if the rainfall model numbers pan out, then South Central Kentucky could be looking at a very bad situation.
Do any of these so called “models” ever pan out ???
Hope these models changes before it hits. Just pray that arctic air will arrive faster than there indicating it will so it be mainly snow.
I’ve looked at countless weather models and none of them seem to agree where the Snow will start and the freezing rain and sleet takes over. What really concerns me is the Jet Stream will go “flat” and result in a very long Ice event instead of the cold front blowing through and end the mess.
Chris did mention that the models cant get the handle of what may happen due that models don’t read the arctic air that’s going to take place. My gut is telling me we get ice hopefully its sleet form and get hammer with snow to follow with it.
For the mean time we can enjoy the 40’s and 50’s degree next couple days.
Yeah, fifty degrees and rain followed by a Sunny weekend with seasonable temperatures.
GFS=Bad..
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=zr_acc&rh=2022013112&fh=99&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc=
If that model is right, were in trouble.
Winter Storm Watches have already been issued in anticipation of this storm for parts of eleven states in the Plains and Midwest, including my neck of the woods in NE IL, Will County.
Looks like the sweet spot for the heaviest snow is going to be South and SE of the Chicago Metro Area, in Central IL and Northern IN. The computer models are predicting outrageous amounts of snow for those areas. Still, we should get a pretty respectable snowfall here in the Chicago area.
I saw that Mike just a couple of minutes ago where a WSW has been issued for a large area of Illinois. At least you know what precipitation type you will receive. Here we are on “pins and needles” waiting for updates that don’t come fast enough. This Winter so far the GFS model has been close to nailing it down on the Clipper Systems and now the latest is showing my area of the state getting a significant ICE STORM late Thursday into early Friday, but I’m hoping for better news for some agreement on the other models. I bet your glad your precipitation will definitely be Snow.
Those 2 snow storms we had Feb/Mar of 2015 were not run of the mill…….if I remember, both storms were 17 inches in Lexington…I remember the one from Feb stayed 12 degrees almost the entire duration…….
I can’t remember Mark the accumulation of those two Snowstorms here in Maple. I don’t think they were as substantial as you had in Lexington. However, there was some drifting that had to be shoveled at the end of my driveway.
I remember those, but the ones that really stand out were ” the dusting event” in late winter of 98. Went to bed with forecasts calling for a dusting to 1/2 inch and woke up to 12″ and if I remember it snowed again that night another 6″ then temp went up to 40’s..And of course the Blizzard of 1978. Rain to snow very low barometric pressure and 30 degree drop of temp in a few hours . Man the winds were howling.
Indecently Schroeder, I see you are located in Maple, I have family that lives nearby you in Badger. Small world
Badger right next door ! Yes it is a small world.
No up dates from Chris , i guess he’s still trying to pin point how it’s gonna play out.
I just looked at the models that I could pull up, and there is NO change except they issued a WSW for the counties north of Taylor for Ice and not Snow. Bummer !!!