Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a windy and mild day taking shape as we get set to track several cold fronts in here from the northwest. The first arrives tonight, but doesn’t have much to work with. The next system is a much stronger one blowing in for Super Bowl Weekend. That one has a little more potential.
Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs reach the 45-50 degree range in the north and can spike into the middle and upper 50s in the south and west. Winds will be gusty from the southwest as a cold front moves closer from the northwest.
This front can spit out a few fast-moving shower or two during the evening with the potential for a rain or snow shower late tonight into Thursday morning. Here are your radars to follow any action into town…
Temps do come down some on Thursday with upper 30s and low 40s north to 50 in the south and west.
Gusty southwest winds then kick back in on Friday with temps surging into the 50s. Can someone in the west and south reach 60? Maybe.
A much stronger cold front then sweeps in here Friday night and early Saturday. A few gusty showers will be noted ahead of this, but much of the action will actually be behind the front and that’s where temps will be tanking. This likely sets the stage for a band of light snow for Saturday.
The NAM only goes through 7am Saturday, but it’s showing our band of light snow very well by that time…
There’s a chance for a wave of low pressure to develop along this front and the models are trying their best to do just that. The GFS continues to show a little better chance for this to impact southeastern Kentucky through Super Bowl Sunday…
The Canadian is trying to bring that little wave across the region Saturday night into Super Bowl Sunday…
The EURO continues to want no part of this wave and keeps everything to the southeast of us…
As we look a little deeper down the road, there’s a strong signal for a very deep trough sweeping into the eastern half of the country late next week into the following weekend. That shows up well on the GFS Ensembles…
The same GFS Ensembles indicate snow chances fairly far south over the next 2 weeks…
But, there are signs of a pattern reversal to much more of an eastern ridge the week of the 21st…
That would work for me!!
Have a great Dey and take care.
That eastern ridge looks mighty fine, but it may also increase the chances for severe weather, since it will be knocking up against a cache of cold air in Canada that is deeper than it has been in recent years. More importantly, the specific humidity of the air flowing north from the Gulf has been steadily increasing, as it has been increasing globally, due to climate change-related heating of the atmosphere. The line of demarcation between those air masses, a.k.a. Tornado Alley, has been expanding eastwards over past decade or so, and the number of tornadoes in our neck of the woods seems to bear that out. I also believe that severe weather season in Kentucky will kick off in the March/April timeframe, rather than April/May.
Thanks Chris, It’s amazing how this Winter parallels last Winter’s pattern. A year ago today we were talking about the dirty three letter word ICE.
https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=47618
It’s good to see a ridge along the east coast, bringing Gulf air back into our area. The past few Winters around here have been up and down affairs, where the “down” would usually stick around for a day or two, then climb back into the 50’s or 60’s for several days. In reality, we have not seen a prolonged cold snap (relatively…) around here for a number of years. During that time, the air coming up from the Gulf hasn’t been oppressively hot, but it has more moisture-laden, and with sea surface temperatures just a few miles off the Louisiana coast already pushing 80°, Dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s will be more prevalent. The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere has caused Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee. I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.
It’s good to see a ridge along the east coast, finally bringing some warm air back into our area. The past few Winters around here have been up and down affairs, where the “down” would usually stick around for a day or two, then climb back into the 50’s or 60’s for several days. In reality, we have not seen a prolonged cold snap (relatively…) around here for a number of years. During that time, the air coming up from the Gulf hasn’t been oppressively hot, but it has more moisture-laden, and with sea surface temperatures just a few miles off the Louisiana coast already pushing 80°, Dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s will be more prevalent. The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere has caused Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee. I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.
It’s good to see a ridge along the east coast, finally bringing some warm air back into our area. The past few Winters around here have been up and down affairs, where the “down” would usually stick around for a day or two, then climb back into the 50’s or 60’s for several days. In reality, we have not seen a prolonged cold snap (relatively…) around here for a number of years. During that time, the air coming up from the Gulf hasn’t been oppressively hot, but it has more moisture-laden, and with sea surface temperatures just a few miles off the Louisiana coast already pushing 80°, Dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s will be more prevalent. The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere has caused Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee. I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.