A Little More of a March Look

Good Thursday, folks. We continue with more of a March looking setup over the next few days as we continue to watch to see what a system does for Super Bowl Weekend. We take a closer look at where the pattern goes later this month and a bit beyond.

Let’s get straight to the potential for your Super Bowl Weekend. A cold front sweeps in here Friday night with a band of showers ahead of it and a big temp drop behind it. A period of light snow will be possible behind the front early Saturday with the chance for some snow showers and flurries on a northwest flow that afternoon.

There’s also the potential for a wave of low pressure to develop along the front by Saturday night and Sunday morning. Odds continue to favor this being to our east, but there’s a chance for a little bit of snow to impact parts of the state, especially in the east.

The GFS shows the southeast getting in n the action…

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The GFS then brings that Super Bowl Sunday night clipper in with a period of light snow…

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The Canadian only has a touch of light snow with the wave…

It does not follow that up with much from the clipper.

 

Colder air behind this won’t last long as temps rebound quickly by the middle of next week. That sets the stage for what may become a big plains storm system…

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Thunderstorms, anyone?

After the trough sweeps through later next week, the Ensembles continue to flip toward more of a eastern ridge flexing a little for the closing days of the month…

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That’s a warmer look and the latest GFS Ensembles Extended keeps a ridge going across he east into early March…

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That big trough in the west could spell for a wet and stormy pattern around here and the same model shows above normal precipitation through the middle of March…

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Maybe some early season severe weather?

In the short-term, we may see a stray rain or snow shower impacting parts of northern Kentucky today. Here are your radars to play along…

Have a great ThursDey and take care.

16 Comments

  1. JoeDfromBG

    It’s good to see a ridge along the east coast, finally bringing some warm air back into our area. The past few Winters around here have been up and down affairs, where the “down” would usually stick around for a day or two, then climb back into the 50’s or 60’s for several days. In reality, we have not seen a prolonged cold snap (relatively…) in South Central Kentucky for several years. During that time, the air coming up from the Gulf hasn’t been oppressively hot, but it has been more moisture-laden, and with sea surface temperatures just a few miles off the Louisiana coast already pushing 80°, Dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s will be more prevalent. The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere has caused Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee. I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.

  2. JoeDfromBG

    It’s good to see a ridge along the east coast, finally bringing some warm air back into our area. The past few Winters around here have been up and down affairs, where the “down” would usually stick around for a day or two, then climb back into the 50’s or 60’s for several days. In reality, we have not seen a prolonged cold snap (relatively…) around here for a number of  years. During that time, the air coming up from the Gulf hasn’t been oppressively hot, but it has more moisture-laden, and with sea surface temperatures just a few miles off the Louisiana coast already pushing 80°, Dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s will be more prevalent.

    • JoeDfromBG

      The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere has caused Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee.  I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.

    • JoeDfromBG

      The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere is causing Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee.  I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.

    • JoeDfromBG

      The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere is causing Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee.  I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and I agree that our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.

    • Schroeder

      Precisely Joe, the Polar Low does not come as far South anymore and hold very long. I can’t remember the last time it did. I believe in the year 1989, December maybe ? The question is why is this temperature occurrence keep occurring ?
      I believe the Surface Sea Temperatures have reached their climax in the Gulf and the Atlantic Ocean. This is the second year we have had to endure La Nina. How about a third year ? Scientist are wondering why the PDO has stayed in the negative and ENSO seems to be absent.

  3. JoeDfromBG

    The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere has caused Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee.  I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and I agree that our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.

  4. JoeDfromBG

    The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere is causing Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee.  I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.

  5. JoeDfromBG

    The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere is causing Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee.  I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.

  6. JoeDfromBG

    The Climate Change-driven warming of our atmosphere is causing Specific and Relative Humidity levels to rise globally, and the Gulf of Mexico is no exception. Positional changes in the jet stream are also causing the traditional storm track associated with “Tornado Alley” to expand eastwards, with a corresponding increase in the number of tornadoes being spawned in Kentucky and Tennessee.  I believe that this trend will continue in 2022, and our severe weather season could begin as early as mid-March to early April.

  7. Schroeder

    Thanks Chris, I hoping these weak Clipper Systems last into mid April because this is the only weather type that will keep the Plant Life from Spring Freezes that seem to occur more often anymore.

    After last years December’s Horrible Weather Event I hate to see the potential for Severe Weather to return this Spring. This Climate Change has made the Climate of Kentucky less desirable. I just hope it is a Natural Weather Cycle ?

  8. Russell

    RIP snow. It’s over.
    Bring on spring ready for warmer if it’s not gona snow.
    SuperBowl: Go BENGALS. (I’m a Packer fan but would like to see the Bengals who’ve suffered for so long finally win one)

    • Schroeder

      Russell, I don’t think the chance for a measurable Snowstorm is over, but it could be ? I don’t like Springs in this part of the Country because you could loose your whole House in a mater of minutes, as a result of a Tornado Strike.

      Best Springs are in Western Washington State and in Western Oregon. Springs there last longer and their Landscape Plants don’t suffer from Freeze Damage. The only disadvantage is Drought, so there is NO perfect place to live.

      Closer to my area would be the Appalachian Mountains for Great Spring Wild Flowers and cooler Springs and Summers. Still there is No perfect place to live.

  9. JoeDfromBG

    Sorry about the repeats. I should have realized something was wrong after the 4th “Your post did not go through, please try again” message!

    • Schroeder

      Joe, must have been a computer error ? This sometimes happens to me when I post on here, especially if I have a certain word containing the letters a*s*s. Frustrating !

  10. kywildcat

    I’m throwing the towel. Winter was good to SE KY this year, a rarity.

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