Severe Storms Threat For Thursday

Good Wednesday, folks. Our active pattern is about to throw another potent system at us for Thursday and it’s likely to deliver strong storms and high winds. This active period shows little sign of slowing down as it likely rolls through the rest of the month and into March.

Let’s start with today and roll ahead. Highs are generally in the 60s with gusty winds that may top 40mph at times. Clouds will increase, but our skies stay dry so get out there and enjoy your middle of the week, will ya?

Thursday’s storm continues to be fairly well behaved and will throw showers and strong storms across the region. The setup is there for some pretty good storms to go up with damaging wind the main player. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting this region for potential severe storms…

The wind gust forecast from the GFS continues to be absolutely insane…

Here’s a breakdown of how things may play out:

• Temps surge deep into the 60s today and may flirt with 70 in the west and south.
• Winds of 40mph+ and low humidity may fuel brush and forest fires.
• Scattered storms and gusty winds show up as early as Thursday morning.
• A line of strong to severe storms develops in western Kentucky and races eastward.
• Damaging winds are a good bet with this line.
• There’s also a small chance for a few rotating storms going up.
• With or without thunderstorms, high winds of 50mph or higher will be possible.
• Local high water issues can’t be ruled out with these storms putting down a quick 1″-2″ or so of rain.
• Temps ahead of the front make a run at 70 Thursday then drop into the 20s a few hours after it passes.
• A few flurries or snow showers will be flying early Friday.

After the cold air pushes out by late weekend, temps warm once again into the middle of next week. That will be ahead of a storm system comes sweeping in for the middle and end of next week. That one may have the cold air trying to press farther south than the current setup, so we have to keep an eye on that.

The operational models are all trending colder for the last several days of the month and the Ensembles are fully on board for a cold pattern returning…

EURO Ensembles

GFS Ensembles

Looking at the longer range from now through March, I continue to bang the drum about a very active period with a lot of precipitation. The latest EURO Weeklies show well above normal precipitation from now through the final day of March…

That’s the average from 51 different members.

The control fun of the Euro Weeklies are even more emphatic about above normal precipitation…

It is interesting to note how both models show a colder than normal March taking shape so not all of that would be from rain.

I will throw you another update later today. Have a wonderful day and take care.