Good Sunday to one and all. As we put the wraps on a calm weekend, the soggy setup for the week ahead continues to be the weather headline maker. Rounds of heavy rain will bring the potential for flooding to our part of the world and there’s also the chance for some winter weather later in the week.
In the short-term, enjoy your Sunday with temps in the 50s with a 60 in the west and south.
Much of Monday is dry as clouds increase and temps head toward 60. Showers and thunderstorms arrive from the southwest late in the day and will continue to increase Monday night and Tuesday as low pressure works in. Rounds of very heavy rain will show up during this time and much of the region will pick up 1″-3″ of rain with locally higher amounts, leading to the threat for flooding and flash flooding. Here’s the area I’m focusing on…
The GFS continues to advertise a swath of significant rainfall across the southern half of the state during this time…
If those numbers are realized, that could span some serious issues.
There is the threat for a few strong to severe storms during this time. The Storm Prediction Center has a low-end risk across the far west later Monday…
That threat then focuses a little farther east into Tuesday…
Gusty winds are the main player with these storms and the GFS shows some pretty big wind gusts…
Much colder air comes in behind this for Wednesday as skies dry. Those skies don’t stay dry for long as the next system rolls in here Wednesday night and early Thursday. With colder air to work with, this has the chance for winter weather to go along with another flood threat. I made this map yesterday as a general reference for the potential…
The latest GFS is on board with that idea. Here’s what it shows for Thursday morning…
The main part of the system arrives later in the day with the heaviest precipitation Thursday night and early Friday. The GFS looks has heavy rain, freezing rain with a little bit of sleet and snow…
The winter weather aspect of this system will be a challenge, but it’s taking a backseat at the moment to the flood threat at the moment.
Here are the total rainfall numbers from the GFS through Friday…
I will have updates on this hyper-active pattern later today. Have a good one and take care.
After several Winters consisting of mainly average or above average temperatures, interrupted by brief periods of cold, the Winter of 2021/2022 has taken it to the other extreme. It’s been a Winter that just won’t quit!
I read yesterday for spring outlook that winter will prolong into first. part of spring season.
I can’t sleep. I just made coffee and I guess I’m ready to face the day at 3:22 am. Another wet start Chris. Each year seems to always end in above normal precip…I guess it’s better than below normal…aside from the flooding.
Mark, I Wake up Early every Morning. I guess it’s just the Farmer Gene that Causes this to Happen.
The last Storm that Blew through my County of Taylor brought mainly Wind and only a little over an inch of Rain.
The Weather Models will most likely Change even when the Weather Event is already Happening.
The Southeast Ridge always Dictates our Weather Around Here, maybe it Won’t be as Bad as it Sounds.
I would love to see one decent snowfall before spring kicks in.
I am not optimistic that is going to happen.
I see more Fz. rain headed my way.
Here is the summary of the snow squall event that affected portions of Northern and North-Central IL on Friday night. Rockford, just south of the Wisconsin border, received 1.2 inches of snow in just 30 minutes, along with near-zero visibility. Snow Squall Warnings, which are similar to Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado Warnings, were issued by the NWS as the snow squall moved through the area. By the time it reached the SW Suburbs of Chicago late Friday night, it had weakened considerably.
https://weather.gov/lot/2022feb18
I only seen one Snow Squall Event in my 70 years here on earth. The Event occurred in Washington, Indiana on Easter Sunday I believe year was 1965, but I’m not sure anymore. The ground was completely covered in the two hour Event.
Here’s the Event that occurred on Palm Sunday 1965 and it wasn’t a Snow Squall :
https://www.weather.gov/ind/palmsuntor#:~:text=On%20Palm%20Sunday%2C%20April%2011,deadliest%20of%20all%20Indiana%20outbreaks.