Good Monday, folks. We have a wild week of weather taking shape across the region as a series of storms systems impact the state. In the short-term, the threat is from flooding and strong to severe storms. Later in the week, that focus shifts to flooding and winter weather.
Clouds increase today as temps stay mild. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms move from southwest to northeast into western Kentucky and that action increases into the evening. Some of the storms may be strong or severe and the Storm Prediction Center has the west in a low-end risk for severe storms before the day is over…
The low-end threat then focuses farther east as we head into Tuesday…
Damaging winds are the main player with this setup and you can see that showing up on the peak wind gust forecast through Tuesday…
GFS
HI RES NAM
Rainfall totals of 1″-3″ will be common through Tuesday night and that will be enough to cause flooding and flash flooding in some areas. Locally higher amounts will show up where thunderstorms move over the same areas. The GFS has been advertising this for days, but continues to deviate from run to run on exactly where this corridor sets up. Here’s the current GFS rainfall forecast through Tuesday night…
Ugh.
This isn’t wall to wall rain and areas of the east may see some sun for a time Tuesday as temps surge well into the 60s.
Much colder air then crashes in here behind the departing system early Wednesday as skies slowly dry from west to east.
This sets the stage for the next system to move in with rain and a wintry mix Wednesday night and Thursday and that continues through early Friday. This is a map I’ve had out for a few days now and I still like what it shows…
Here’s the GFS amounts for each precipitation type…
Again, the flood threat is my number one concern, but a prolonged period of freezing rain in the west and north is a growing concern.
Rainfall totals through Friday look like this on the GFS…
River flooding is a big concern this week, folks.
I will have an update later today and will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. As usual, I have you all set to track the severe weather potential in the west. Our exclusive interactive radar also features live storm chaser video streams, so be sure to check that out…
Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Enjoy the day and take care.
Thanks Chris, I would Rather be in those Areas of the Country that are going to Receive A Snowstorm.
Hoping that the Weather next Week Won’t be as Bad as it is Forecast to Be.
Maybe the Southeast Ridge will move farther East into the Atlantic and place Our Area of the Country on the Cold and Snowy Side or Move West and Give us An Early Spring that will last Without Late Spring Freezes.
Realistically, I Believe the Chances for One of those Late Heavy Wet Snowstorms in My Area are Slowly coming to A close. Probably My Last Major Snowstorm Was in December 2004, which took place in Southwest Indiana At Christmastime.
Don’t really see Two feet of Snow accumulating here in Maple, Kentucky especially these Days.
Hurricane Force RAIN!