Good Sunday to one and all. We are putting the wraps on a much colder than normal final weekend of March across the Commonwealth. This colder than normal setup looks to continue for the next few weeks but will feature one spring blip in the week ahead. This spring blip will include the threat for severe storms across the region.

Before we get into all that, let’s talk about the cold weather we have out there today.

Lows are in the 20s to start things out and only recover to the 40s for most of the state. For reference, 60s are common for high temps.

Monday is another well below normal day with 20s in the morning with temps ranging from the upper 40s north and east to the low 60s west. This is ahead of a milder surge of air that slowly moves from the southwest on Tuesday.

Look at those Tuesday high temps to illustrate what a struggle we are dealing with…

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A touch of light rain and mix may be noted for some in the north and east Monday night and Tuesday.

The warm air wins the fight for Wednesday with highs surging deep into the 70s on a strong southwest wind…

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This is ahead of a potent storm system rolling out of the plains and Mississippi Valley into the western Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday…

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That’s being pushed by a negatively tilted trough and that opens the door for a fairly wide area for severe weather Wednesday into Wednesday night. This is the area I’m highlighting at the moment…

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All modes of severe weather will be possible with this type of setup, especially from western Kentucky and points south. We will continue to fine tune the Greatest Risk area over the next few days.

The forecast models are showing the damaging wind risk deep into the Ohio Valley with this setup. Check out the GFS maximum wind gust forecast…

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That’s followed by much colder air as the pattern reverts right back to where we are right now with a trough in the eastern half of the country. The GFS Ensembles have this look for the first 10 days of April…

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Sustained spring is still a ways away, folks. Don’t be surprised if some April flakes show up before we can get spring to finally take control. Team Spring ain’t happy. I’ve said that a lot in recent years, huh?

Enjoy the day and take care.