Good Monday, folks. Our September pattern rolls on with pleasant temps remaining this week and through the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will be noted during this time as a big upper level system spins slowly across the region.
I will take a look at this setup and also look toward winter to see what the new EURO seasonal run has to stay.
Today finds a scattered shower or storm going up across the area with the greatest potential across the central and east. Here are your radars to follow along…
This is part of a highly anomalous pattern for the middle of August. It’s one featuring a deepening trough that is likely to throw a slow-moving cutoff upper system at us. Those features can linger for days and are more typical of later in fall.
The models now pretty much agree with the upper-level setup through early next week…
EURO
CANADIAN
GFS
The end result in this setup is below normal temps, especially highs, and the chance for those on again, off again showers and storms. The GFS is finally starting to pick up on the opportunity for rains…
We will need to watch the weekend setup as the placement of that upper level system could mean another heavy rain threat for our waterlogged region.
The latest EURO Seasonal is out and it goes through February. The model really struggles to find cold air and troughs, but you guys already know this from years of rants. 😜
That said, the latest run actually shows a trough in the east for December and January…
That would imply plenty of opportunity for cold and winter weather around these parts. ❄️🥶☃️
The same run then says let’s relax all that stuff for February…
That would be exactly the kind of winter I like… Front loaded. That’s how 2010/11 played out and that’s a year showing up in some of my preliminary research.
Make it a great day and take care.
Thanks Chris, a very foggy morning here in Maple with a temperature of 64 degrees. Unlike other areas of the State we will take those on and off rain / showers through the week.
Hopefully, we won’t experience the severe weather we had in December 2021 ? An early Winter and lasting through late March is my kind of Winter. Spring comes in mid – April without late freeze damage to trees and shrubs.
For a La Nina Summer pattern, the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain somewhat inactive but this will likely change as we enter Late Summer and the Fall season ?
The latest ENSO discussion, as of 4 days ago, predicts that a mild to moderate La Nińa will persist at least through the first 2 months of 2023. Colder sea surface temperatures have actually expanded west across the mid-lattitudes off of South America, and until we see some significant change in that metric, La Nina’s effects will continue to plague us, like the weather version of a “bad penny”.
Joe, I just wonder how strong our next ENSO will be ? No one knows at this time and when they make the prediction it almost always an educated guess. I wouldn’t want to go from a moderate La Nina to a very strong El Nino but, we don’t have that choice unless there is climate control. If there really is climate control, then God help us all.
How often does late winter warmth flip to a hard freeze just as everything is emerging and budding? As long as we’re hopin’ and wishin’, I’m a fan of plants in dormancy until the weather is ready to move into spring without a backward glance.
When I was in the garden center / nursery business many years ago we had many early Springs which resulted in damaged plant material due to late freezes that occurred in late April to early May. We still broke even despite the damage and loss of plants.
This looks to be a perfect weather week.
Cannot ask for anything better than this in August.